Before we start, consider these two things:
One, it will take at least a few years before we know for sure which team got the better side of this franchise altering trade.
Two, I was at Dodger Stadium when Adrian Gonzalez homered in his first at bat as a Los Angeles Dodger.
Perspective is everything. Human nature is to form judgment and opinions based on single actions, on one observation instead of many. In what may very well be the most significant trade in not only Red Sox history, but baseball history as well, there are no easy answers or simple conclusions.
By now, you know the basic facts. On Friday afternoon, the Red Sox traded their three highest paid players, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for a package of five players including top pitching prospects Ruby De La Rosa and Allen Webster. In one fell swoop, Ben Cherington cleared the Red Sox of approximately 270 million dollars of committed money, surrendering the team’s best hitter, its most maligned, and its most overpaid all in the same deal. If you’re still having trouble wrapping your head around this, join the club.
There’s a thousand different ways this could go. Josh Beckett could return to the National League and be absolutely brilliant, becoming the perfect second starter to Clayton Kershaw, and carrying the Dodgers through October. He could also continue to pitch the way he has been all season, and sink any chance they have of winning the division, his contract haunting them for the next two years. Carl Crawford could make a full recovery from tommy john surgery and return to the tune of an average around .330, setting the table for Gonzalez and Matt Kemp for years to come. Or he could be the albatross he’s been to the Red Sox since the day the 2011 season began. At least three of the prospects Boston got in return have the chance to be legitimate major league players, but at the end of the day a prospect is a prospect for a reason, they could all easily flame out and amount to nothing.
The common thread through all these possibilities is this: only time will tell. Even if the Dodgers win the World Series this year, with Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett leading the way, Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, and Jerry Sands could carry the Red Sox to a World Series of their own a few years down the line. Am I saying it’s going to happen? No, the odds of all three of these prospects panning out is extremely low, but, again, it’s not out of the realm of possibility, but it will take a few years to pan out either way.
Much of this depends on what Ben Cherington and Boston’s brass do with all this freed up money. If they turn around this winter and sign Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke to big deals, this trade will have been a waste, simply disposing of overpaid free agents to sign new ones. It sounds like Cherington is going to be extremely careful on the market though, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Red Sox didn’t sign another high-profile free agent for a few years.
Perspective. When you’re watching James Loney’s at bats the rest of this year, just remember that there’s a plan. Cherington didn’t just blow this team up because of clubhouse problems, he blew it up because it wasn’t working on the field either. If this past offseason was an example of anything, it’s that being handcuffed on the market by a few mega-contracts signed years ago is not an enviable situation to be in. Cherington now has the luxury of a blank slate, a team that is his to build, for better or worse.
With all that being said, it doesn’t make the present much easier. I can’t remember ever wanting the Red Sox to get a player as badly as I wanted them to get Adrian Gonzalez. “His swing is made for Fenway Park.” “He’d be the best Red Sox hitter since Ted Williams.” These headlines filled the papers for almost two years before Gonzalez was shipped over just twenty-one months ago. The Red Sox had their hitter. They had the cornerstone of their franchise for years to come. And then they didn’t. And standing in the upper deck of Dodger Stadium on Saturday night, watching Gonzalez blast a three-run homer in his first at bat hurt more than I thought it would. It felt less like his first home run as a Dodger and more like his last as a Red Sox.
This is a trade that is one day going to help the Red Sox. There shouldn’t be much doubt in that. For the first time in years, they have the opportunity to rebuild their roster almost entirely. They got rid of albatross contracts, and have hopefully learned a lesson in reckless spending.
But it still doesn’t make the fact that they got rid of one of the best players in the game any easier. The player that was coveted so badly for so many years. The player that was supposed to hit fifty home runs once he finally escaped the caverns of Petco Park. The player that was going to be the next Ted Williams. The player that was going to change everything.
The player that’s gone.