With a 5-4 record and two series wins under their belt, the Red Sox have gotten off to a relatively satisfying start to the 2013 season.
One of the biggest reasons for Boston’s early-season burst has been Clay Buchholz, who has risen to the occasion with two straight outstanding outings. Buchholz is 2-0 with an 0.64 ERA and has pitched seven innings in each of his starts.
Early in spring training, I examined Buchholz’s path to becoming a pitch-to-contact pitcher, noting drops in his fastball velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate. Buchholz’s average fastball velocity peaked at 94.1 mph in 2010, according to PITCHf/x. It declined to 92.3 mph and 92.2 mph in the following two years.
In 2012, the right-hander was victimized by a 13% HR/FB rate and a ghastly 69.7% strand rate. He finished the season with a 4.56 ERA, with a career low 6.13 K/9.
So far in 2013, Buchholz’s average fastball velocity has been 91.6 mph. His cutter, which he started throwing at 90.9 mph in 2011, has sat at 87.3 mph so far this season.
Buchholz is not the power pitcher he once was, but he may have developed the wisdom to become a better pitcher than he was a youngster.
Though 14 innings isn’t a reasonable sample size to analyze statistics, we can reference Buchholz’s pitch selection as a possible trend going forward. The righty, whose curveball long was his signature out pitch, has thrown the deuce just 23 times out of 207 total pitches this year. That’s just 11.1% of the time, down from 16.6% in 2012.
Buchholz is also throwing a combination of fastballs more than usual, despite the drop in velocity. In 2010 – Buchholz’s best season as a pro, in which he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA – he threw his four-seam fastball 53.3% of the time, backed up by a slider, changeup and curve. This year, Buchholz has thrown his four-seamer 45.9% of the time, but he’s also thrown a hefty amount of cutters (19.8%) and two-seamers (6.8%). That’s 72.5% fastballs thrown by Buchholz so far this season, or 150 of 207 pitches.
So while much of Buchholz’s success this season has been driven by a .222 BABIP and a ridiculous 100% strand rate, there is optimism for the reason of the season, and a long, healthy career for the 28-year-old. His reliance on three different fastballs shows that he has learned to focus on movement and location, rather than power and binary (fastball/curveball) deception.
Buchholz’s success fluctuated when he thought he was a power pitcher. Now that he seems to have honed his craft as a dart thrower, we can have a better sense of what we’re going to see each time he takes the hill.