Through the entire offseason, one of the main points analysts everywhere hammered home about the Red Sox was this: the team’s success will ride on the arms of top pitchers Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.
Well so far, so good.
The duo has combined to allow only four runs in their first 33 innings to open the new season, and the Sox are 5-0 when the two pitch (as of Saturday). Not bad, considering the two combined for a 20-22 record in the 1-2 slots of the rotation last season.
Fire Brand’s Dan Podheiser already wrote an excellent piece this week discussing some trends in Buchholz’s performance this year, so I wanted to take some time to look at the differences I’ve noticed in Lester this year compared to last. After all, his transformation into a human batting practice machine that contributed quite heavily to the disappointing performance of the 2012 team.
Through his first three starts, Lester has posted solid performances against division opponents New York, Toronto, and Tampa Bay, outdueling C.C. Sabathia and each of last year’s Cy Young winners (R.A. Dickey and David Price). While he’s not pitched further than seven innings into any of his appearances, he’s been dominant – 19 IP, 1.50 ERA, 18 K, 3 BB, 0 HR allowed.
Right off the bat, the biggest aspect of Lester’s success in his first three starts has been avoiding the home run ball; specifically, he’s yet to allow one in his first 19 innings. While I don’t quite think Lester is likely to maintain a HR/FB of 0.0%, limiting the deep ball will play a large factor in recovering from a 2012 season in which he surrendered a career-high 25 bombs (13.9% HR/FB). Lester’s career HR/FB sits at an even 10% – a return to that average would no doubt help his cause. Keeping the ball in the park will tend to do that.
Beyond that, another notable improvement in Lester’s performance to this point has been in his strikeout rate. After three consecutive years as essentially a strikeout-per-inning pitcher (9.96 K/9 in 2009, 9.74 in 2010, and 8.55 in 2011), Lester’s strikeouts plummeted to 7.28 in 2012, his lowest mark in a full season since 2008 (his first full major league season). A strikeout pitcher who stops striking people out will tend to have difficulties on the mound; just ask Ubaldo Jimenez.
In his three starts so far this season, Lester has looked more like his 2009-2011 self than the disastrous 2013 incarnation; specifically, because he’s missing bats again. He’s recorded 18 punch-outs in his first 19 innings across from only three walks. We’re talking about an absurdly small sample size here, but for a pitcher like Lester, who isn’t the most prestigious at drawing groundballs, those strikeouts are very important. While Lester did a better job than you’d expect limiting walks in 2012 (2.98 BB/9, down from 3.59 and 3.52 in 2010 and 2011, respectively), the lack of strikeouts combined with a drop in groundball percentage (49.2%) essentially led to an apocalypse of base hits – 216 to be exact, far and away a career high. He allowed batters to put more balls in play, leading to an elevated .313 BABIP.
Scientifically speaking, that’ll mess you up.
Look, I don’t want to sound too hasty here. We’re only three starts in, which doesn’t exactly constitute a trend. Instead, I look at this as more of a guidebook to how Lester can maintain his performance throughout a full season. Looking at the numbers, I think there’s still 5-6 fWAR in his arm, but returning to that level requires keeping the ball in the park and missing more bats. That may be easier said than done, but we know what kind of pitcher Lester is at that point, and that’s what it’s going to require for him to return to form.
For now, I’ll say that – based on what I’ve seen to this point – Lester finishes the year somewhere in the 3.50 ERA/180 strikeout range. That puts him close to his 3.6-fWAR campaign in 2011, which would make for a notable improvement from last season (which was much worse than its 3.3 fWAR might indicate). He’ll go 200 innings again this season, eating some innings, and in all likelihood will look more like the Jon Lester we all know and love. We’re a long way away from being able to make any projections on how the Red Sox will perform in the AL East this season, but if Lester and Buchholz continue to pitch like this from the 1 and 2 spots in the rotation, it can only be a good thing.
For now, let’s just hope Lester will never give up a home run again. Hey, I can dream, right?
Quick Takes for the Week:
-Uh oh, Joel Hanrahan. The Sox’ new closer has to be pretty happy this week is over, as he gave up six runs in only 1.2 innings of work, walking four. There have been question marks surrounding Hanrahan’s command after walking 5.43 batters per nine with the Pirates last season, and a relatively wild spring and rough start to the season have done little to alleviate those concerns. Now, after being yanked for walking both of the batters he faced Saturday against the Rays, you have to wonder how long his leash will be, considering the depth of the Boston bullpen this year. On a related note, Andrew Bailey hasn’t allowed a run in his first 4.1 innings, striking out seven.
-See ya later, Jose Iglesias. Despite opening the year on a 9-for-20 tear, the Red Sox sent the 23-year-old shortstop back down to AAA this week to make room for Stephen Drew. While it might be a tad disappointing to see Iglesias head back down considering how he was playing, it’s not altogether surprising; he and Drew both play only shortstop, and Jose’s early season tear was certainly not sustainable. Drew is much more of a known quantity, and was paid quite a bit to start at short, so while it may not be the most exciting choice, it’s his job for the time being. Still, it was nice to see some production from the young shortstop’s bat, and I get the feeling we’ll see him back in the majors sometime this year.
-The Jackie Bradley Experiment looks like it may need some more time to marinate. Bradley is now 3-for-25 in his major league career, and while the six drawn walks are nice, he just seems like his bat is not quite ready for MLB pitching. He’s striking out 25% of
the time, and fielding and base running ratings are actually in the negative, per Fangraphs. It would seem likely that he’ll return to the minors when David Ortiz finishes his rehab assignment, which is probably for the best. He’s an exciting player who will be a valuable contributor to the Boston Red Sox at some point; now is just simply not the time. A 20-day minor league assignment (at minimum) will delay his arbitration a full year, a very reasonable trade-off.
–Daniel Nava is super awesome, and if you haven’t read Jack Keller’s piece on him, you need to.