Photo (c) Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com
With 37 games down in the 2013 season, now seems like a good time to revisit my Ellspocalypse series. For those of you who forgot, Ellspocalypse is a periodic series looking at the performance of Jacoby Ellsbury as the season goes on. As we all know, Ellsbury is a free agent at the end of the season, and the Sox face the difficult decision of whether or not to re-sign him knowing no hometown discount is in play (because Scott Boras).
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at what Ellsbury has done so far this year, and… well, it’s been a mixed bag.
The first thing that stands out is that his speed appears to have completely returned. Ellsbury’s already nabbed 12 bases in his 37 games this year, only being caught twice. He’s already just two steals short of his total during his injury-marred 2012 campaign in which he played 74 games.
If anything, this tells us he’s healthy.
The rest, though, is a little hazier. His production at the plate quite simply hasn’t been encouraging; his .301 wOBA is basically identical to what he produced in 2012, and he’s shown none of the power that made him an MVP candidate in 2011. He’s only hit one home run this year—half as many as Shane Victorino—and his .363 SLG is actually worse than his 2012 mark.
Perhaps most concerning in Ellsbury’s early performance is his inability to get on base consistently. His OBP this year sits at only .318—as compared to .313 last year—which is not altogether ideal for a leadoff hitter. His performance on the bases has been impressive, but you have to wonder how much more he’d be doing if he was able to draw walks and get on base more consistently.
Despite this, Ellsbury does currently rank third on the team in WAR with a mark of exactly 1.0, bolstered by his base-running and excellent fielding, and he does rank second on the team in hits (behind Pedroia). Perhaps most importantly, he’s appeared in every single game for the Red Sox this year. After missing significant time with injury two of the past three seasons, it’s encouraging that he’s managed to stay on the field as long as he has.
It’s quite possible Ellsbury’s 2011 really was an outlier, and the real Jacoby Ellsbury is something closer to his 2008-09 self: a .290/.340/.400 hitter with tremendous speed and plus fielding. So far this season, he’s recorded a .296 BABIP, slightly below his career mark of .321, so it’s possible a correction back to those levels could bring him back to the player he was pre-2011.
What all this means for his free agent value remains to be seen. I look at these stats, and I don’t see any signs of the player that manned center for the Sox in 2011. The power clearly seems to have been a fluke, and that was the biggest thing that separated him from being a great player and being an MVP candidate.
Scott Boras is his agent, and we know what that means. He’s going to pitch that 2011 season hard in the offseason, and the odds are somebody will pay the money he’s looking for hoping to get that player, as opposed to what Jacoby’s been the past two years. It’s for this reason I’m convinced the Sox won’t pay to bring him back; I just don’t see Ben Cherington shelling out big money for Jacoby knowing he’s not going to produce like he did that year.
It’s still too far out to draw conclusions, but right now, this is where we stand. Ellsbury is certainly still a very good player, and the Sox are better with him on the field, but his health hasn’t improved his overall performance all that dramatically. Going forward, I would expect to see the OBP improve somewhat, but the power is a question mark. It’s possible he could go on a tear, but I think we have to consider he may not return to that level again.
For right now, all we can do is wait and see.