Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of buzzing about the Red Sox farm system among the prospect experts. We have a certifiable blue chipper in Xander Bogaerts; a third baseman who’s hitting everything in sight in Garin Cecchini; a center fielder of the future in Jackie Bradley; and a mountain of high-upside starting pitching–and that’s just the top tier. Perhaps most enviable about the Red Sox position with their player development machine is their depth beyond the top tier. While the 2012 draft hasn’t been as fruitful as we might have hoped, the 2010 and 2011 drafts were massively successful, and the 2013 draft is chock full of promising talent. This success, both with drafting and international free agency, has given the Red Sox a plethora of options and opportunities to deal from several areas of strength.
Many outside of the organization have focused on young pitching as the Red Sox’s greatest position of strength. While there aren’t any obvious aces in the bunch, it’s hard to disagree with their assessment. Still, with so many focusing on the pitching, I feel as if the Red Sox’s other area of strength is at the shortstop position. Sure, people are giving it a little bit more attention lately, particularly at the major league level and how it relates to the third base logjam as well. Even still, there are a number of young, interesting players in the lower levels who garner some level of attention. Let’s take a look at depth chart from top to bottom:
Major Leagues
Stephen Drew (.228/.313/.413, 96 OPS+, 1.4 rWAR) – Contrary to what you might like to believe, Drew has been a very productive shortstop for the Red Sox this season. Are his statistics eye popping? No. Does he have a flashy glove? No. But the Red Sox didn’t sign him for those reasons. Like his much maligned brother, Drew does everything well, but nothing spectacularly. He’s the classic undervalued player that few fans and baseball writers appreciate. Signed to a one-year $9.5M deal over the winter, Drew probably won’t be back next winter. He’s more of a stop gap measure. A bridge, if you will.
Jose Iglesias (.330/.377/.410, 115 OPS+, 1.5 rWAR) – Everyone knows that Iglesias’s calling card is his glove. His defensive abilities, quite frankly, are breathtaking, and sometimes, I wonder if we can truly appreciate his abilities because he makes every play look so easy. Defensively, he should never be in question. Offensively? That’s a whole different ballgame. His 115 OPS+ looks pretty solid, but it’s something of a mirage. Through his first 34 games, he was hitting .434/.484/.575. In the 27 games since, he’s hitting .212/.248/.222 with one extra base hit and two walks (105 plate appearances). While one could say he’s in a slump, this line is pretty much what you’d expect from a guy who hit .244/.296/.292 in 916 plate appearances in triple-A in the two-plus years preceeding his major league promotion.
I don’t want to be the wet blanket on the Jose Iglesias parade. I want to believe he can hit just well enough to be worthy of being a starting shortstop in the majors. I just don’t see that guy yet. He’ll be the odds on favorite to be the starting shortstop next year, and probably should be simply based on defense alone. To both earn and keep that job, he’ll need to prove he can hit for at least a .625 OPS consistently.
Minor Leagues
Xander Bogaerts (.296/.395/.492 between AA and AAA) – After mastering double-A in near record time, Bogaerts was promoted to triple-A and he’s kept right on hitting. Widely considered one of the best prospects in the game, it’s only a matter of time before he reaches the major leagues. Prior to this season, his calling card has always been his immense power ability. This season, he added a more sophisticated approach at the plate focused on working deep counts, pitch selectivity, and drawing walks. This somewhat unexpected development has catapulted him into being one of the top 5 prospects in baseball.
The biggest question facing Bogaerts in his quest is not his ability to perform, but the position in which he’ll play upon arriving in the majors. A lot of that will depend on how Iglesias and Middlebrooks continue to perform both this season and through Spring Training. Regardless of where he ends up, be it shortstop, third base, first base, or left field, Bogaerts will play a major role on the 2014 Red Sox.
Deven Marrero (.261/.341/.339 in high-A) – Marrero, the Red Sox’s first overall pick in the 2012 draft, has had a solid year in his first full season of professional baseball. Known moreseo for his work on the defensive side of the ball, Marrero hasn’t disappointed showing above average range to go with soft hands and a strong arm. Offensively, his season has been inconsistent, yo-yoing from month to month. Though his .680 OPS generally seemed low when viewed through the major league lens, it’s only slightly below average for the Carolina League where the average is .717. Among shortstops, he’s actually performing quite well. He’s showed good plate discipline and ability to drive the ball to the gap for doubles. One thing to watch is that he’s shown a large platoon split that heavily favors left-handed pitching. This could be small sample size noise, but it’s something to keep an eye on in the future. Based on his skill set, he looks like he should develop into either a starting shortstop or a utility infielder.
Jose Vinicio (.225/.262/.289 in low-A) – Entering the season, there were a few evaluators who thought Vinicio might be the best shortstop in the Red Sox system. After the season he’s had though, I doubt they would make the same claim. Let’s look at the bright side first. He’s only 20 years old, and the average of the players in the South Atlantic League is 21.7. In a sense, his struggles are somewhat justifiable, and given his age, a bounceback season could certainly be in the cards. Defensively, he has execellent instincts, which go with outstanding physical tools: above average range, good arm, and soft/quick hands.
The down side is that this is his second season in Greenville, and his .551 represents a 140 point drop from last season. Considering he’s repeating the level, you’d expect his performance to improve. While the league average OPS for the SAL has decreased from .718 last season to .694 this season, that certainly doesn’t account for the nose dive Vinicio has seen in his performance. Making matters even more concerning is that his strikeout rate has jumped from 20% to 24%, and his already paltry walk rate has fallen from 4.7% to 3.4%. There seems to be a fundamental issue with his approach that needs to be corrected. Given his age and skill set, it’s too early to give up on him.
Tzu-Wei Lin (.254/.342/.338 in short season-A) – Lin was signed as an international free agent out of Taiwan last season. At 18, he’s performed well in the New York Penn League playing solid defense, and holding his own at the plate. Lin doesn’t have much in the way of power projection, but he has a very solid, patient approach at the plate. My one concern with Lin’s approach is that he could probably afford to be more aggressive earlier in his career as a way of progressing his overall pitch recognition and plate discipline. Like with Marrero, Lin’s .681 OPS doesn’t look impressive when taken out of context. In reality, he’s performing above average at the plate due to the league’s average OPS being .659. Defensively, he has great range, above average speed, and a strong arm. He’ll have no problem sticking at short. Given his strong defensive background and mature hitting approach, he should rise in stature over the next few years.
Wendell Rijo (.317/.441/.427 in rookie ball) – Rijo is the one name on the list most people know nothing about. He was an international free agent signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2012. According to Baseball America’s scouting report (behind a paywall, so I can only share a portion of it with you):
Scouts love Rijo’s baseball instincts and consistent ability to hit in games. He has a good approach, quick hands and a sound swing. He’s small and there isn’t as much physical projection with him as with other players, but Rijo hits the ball squarely and shows surprising pop for his size. He’s a plus runner with solid hands and is fundamentally sound, though he may move to second base because of his arm.
In his first crack at professional baseball stateside, Rijo’s performance has been impressive with his .868 OPS being 201 points higher than the leage average, despite playing in a league where the average age is two years older. In Sox Prospect’s prospect ranking, he’s currently ranked #36 after being unranked to start the year. He’s only 17 and playing rookie ball, so it’s too early to make any kind of projections. Still, he’s someone to keep an eye on.