1. Is it time to worry about the Red Sox?
Grab some wood their, bub. Not so fast. Entering this most recent series against the Giants, the Red Sox had lost nine of 14 games against the Astros, Royals, Blue Jays, and Yankees–a crew they should have won nine of 14 against. Despite the downturn, it looks like the momentary slump was somewhat the result of bad fortune. I don’t mean to say the Red Sox deserved to win a lot of those games. They didn’t. What I’m saying is there are times were the offense is rolling and the pitching is bad, and vice-versa. That’s largely what happened during that 14 game stretch. The Red Sox offense squandered two starts by John Lackey and one start by Jake Peavy that they really should have won. The pitching staff, on the other hand, blew up in two games where the offense scored at least six runs, and then burned out the bullpen by giving up ten runs in a 15-10 win. Sometimes these stretches happen.
The good news is that players on both sides of the ball seem like they’re on their way back to full strength. Jon Lester, especially after last night’s gem in San Francisco, looks like he’s returned to the typical Lester we’ve known for the past seven-plus seasons. With Peavy and Lackey at his side, they look like a formidable 1-2-3 combination as we head into September. And we still have Clay Buchholz to look forward to! Daniel Nava looks refreshed after taking a few days off. Jacoby Ellsbury, though not playing like it’s 2011, is still playing a better all-around game than he has at any other time in his career. Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, the lineup mainstays, are producing as consistently as a metronome. Lastly, Koji Uehara is as efficient as he is sneakily nasty. Now, if only we could get Mike Napoli back on track, all would be right with the world.
2. Where has Dustin Pedroia’s power gone?
I asked this question about Ellsbury in July, and he promptly followed that up by hitting six home runs over his next 26 games. Clearly, he reads Fire Brand of the American League, didn’t like what I had to say, and decided to show me up. You know what? I respect that. Oh yeah…and you’re welcome Red Sox Nation for waking him up from his power slumber.
Moving on…
So where has Pedroia’s power gone? One reason could be that he’s hitting more ground balls (50.1%) and line drives (21.2%) than he ever has in his career. While line drives will occasionally leave the yard, the bulk of home runs hit are off of fly balls. This is especially true for right handed pull power hitters who play half of their games at Fenway Park. Most of Pedroia’s deep line drives to left field will likely hit some portion of the Green Monster because they don’t have enough loft to sneak over the wall.
Another reason, and this could tie into the change in his batted ball profile, is that Pedroia’s hand injury has caused him to lower the plane of his swing. Just like with wrist injuries, hand injuries can result in reduced power. So much about hitting is reliant on wrist and strength and stability. Even a small injury can take a toll on a player’s performance. While Pedroia’s overall production at the plate hasn’t been hampered, we’re still not seeing quite the laser show we’ve seen in recent years. Luckily, offseason surgery should fix this, so his power reduction should be temporary.
3. What can we expect out of Clay Buchholz when he returns?
This is probably the biggest question facing the Red Sox. First of all, we’re making a big assumption that he’s definitely returning. Back in 2011, we all thought he would be out for a few weeks with a back injury, and then he didn’t return until April 2012. At this point, I’m not taking anything for granted when it comes to Buchholz.
As for his expected performance when he returns, it’d be unfair to expect him to pitch like the pitcher who produced a 1.71 ERA prior to his injury. As dominating as he was early in the season, there’s reason to believe he was pitching a little bit over his head. His 2.46 FIP and 3.47 SIERA indicate that Buchholz was probably a little bit lucky. I tend to agree with that somewhat, especially in the home run department. His 3.2% HR/FB rate is in no way sustainable over an entire season. This is especially true when you compare his current rate to his year-by-year rates since 2008: 14.7%, 14.7%, 5.6%, 10.1%, 13.0%, 3.2%. Let’s face it. He’ll probably give up a couple of home runs once he returns. He’s due.
The other aspect of his ERA-FIP/SIERA variance is probably due to expected regression on balls in play. While I’m a believer that most pitchers will eventually regress toward the league wide norms, there are definitely a few exceptions. Buchholz is one of them. Since 2009, he’s consistently shown an ability to produce better than average BABIPs, sometimes significantly so. While I don’t think producing a low BABIP is a repeatable skill, I do think inducing weak contact is a repeatable skill–one that could lead to low BABIPs. Buchholz has great stuff with sharp late breaking movement on a number of his pitches. Unless he returns before he’s fully healthy, I don’t expect his performance in this aspect to change.
Overall, I’m expecting an ERA closer to 3.25-3.50 for his remaining starts post-injury. Some regression, especially in the home run department, will occur. Plus, the level of competition the Red Sox will be facing in September is going to be pretty staggering as they’ll be facing a lineup of contenders and division foes. Even still, a healthy productive Buchholz could do wonders for the Red Sox.
4. WTF is up with Henry Owens?
Those of you who don’t follow the Red Sox farm system won’t know this, but left-handed starting pitching prospect, Henry Owens is setting fire to the minor leagues in ways not seen since General Sherman channeled his inner pyro in burning Atlanta to the ground.
Owens has been having an impressive season all along, but it’s been the last five weeks that have garnered him the most attention. He started the stretch pitching in high-A ball for Salem. Over his last four starts at the level, he put together an impressive streak of 19-1/3 hitless innings. Notice that I said hitless innings. Not scoreless–although, that was the case as well. This is, of course, a ridiculous stat at any level, but it’s particularly impressive for a 20 year old power lefty who was considered more of a long-term project.
After completely silencing the Carolina League bats over his final four starts, the Red Sox brass wisely decided he had nothing left to prove and promoted him to Double-A ahead of schedule. Since his promotion, he’s actually looked even better producing a 1.17 ERA with a 29/6 K/BB ratio in 15-1/3 innings. Obviously, the Eastern League hitters will eventually adjust to Owens, and he’ll have to make his own adjustments as a result. Still, his performance has been unbelievably impressive this year. To me, there’s no question he’s leapfrogged Matt Barnes, Allen Webster, and Anthony Ranaudo as the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox system. If he finishes well, he might even leapfrog Jackie Bradley and Garin Cecchini to reach the #2 spot overall.
Owens has a ton of potential, and he projects as a #2 or #3 starting pitcher in the major leagues.
5. WTF is up with Mike Napoli?
Nothing really. Yes, he’s struggling, but he’s exactly the same player we thought we were getting. Well, close anyway. We knew he would hit for power. We knew he would strikeout a lot. We knew he’d draw his share of walks. We knew he was an incredibly streaky player with intense highs and depressing lows. What we didn’t know is that he’s play first base considerably better than we’d expected. (Baseball Reference Fielding Runs has him rated as +9 runs.) Overall, we really shouldn’t complain too much. We’re paying him $5M this year (and only this season) when we almost had to pay him $13M, plus an additional $26M over the next two years. Regardless of your level of frustration, the Red Sox have received more than their share of value in signing him. Still, let’s hope he flashes his April and July form over the final six weeks of the season. A productive Napoli could help put the Red Sox over the top.