A lot of people seem to think that the Red Sox got fleeced by Billy Beane and co. with their trade of Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes.
Jon Lester by Kelly zO’Connor of sittingstill.smugmug.com
I, for one, dont see it quite the same way. Admittedly, a lot of people who get paid to write about baseball are writing the same thing, that the trade was pretty much a win-win. Given the circumstances though, I think it’s probably more like a WIN-win for Boston.
Look not further than Tampa Bay, who surrendered David Price, arguably the best pitcher in the American League, for nothing more than a smattering of spare parts. I get it, that’s wildly unfair to Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin and Willy Adames. Smyly, despite the 6-9 record, is a serviceable pitcher who was a top Detroit prospect just a few years ago. Franklin too, has been at or near the top of Mariner’s top-10’s since the M’s took him at the back end of the first round in 2009.
Adames is a bit of a wild card, and he may just be the prize of this deal for the Rays. He was in the midst of a ‘breakout’ 2014 in which he hit .269/.346/.428 across 98 games for the West Michigan Whitecaps. While it’s not the most impressive stat line on its own, remember that Adames, according to baseball reference, is a fully 3.5 years younger than the average age in the MidWest League and is actually the youngest player in that league at the ripe old age of 18. MLB.com also has Adames ranked as the Rays’ second best prospect. Impressed yet?
Now, what does that have to do with Boston, and why do we care? Firstly, the argument could be made that Lester has been a better pitcher than price this season. In two fewer starts, Lester has accrued a 2.9 WAR compared to Price’s 2.7. Obviously not a huge difference, so maybe we don’t care about that. But my point is, that at the very least the two pitchers are comparable. One is former Cy Young Award winner and the other has two World Series rings to his name. Surely, the returns should be similar.
First, the Red Sox reportedly did not want prospects in return for Lester. With an eye on 2015, Boston sought proven Major Leaguers, and in Cespedes, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, they received three battle-tested young players who are largely all in down years.
For Lester in particular though, it took one of the best power-hitting outfielders in the game. And vice versa, for Cespedes, it took one of the best big-game pitchers Boston has ever seen. I didnt mean to downplay the Rays’ return, but I dont think it’s what anybody expected them to get for Price.
Essentially, the Rays had little-to-no leverage, since Price was likely to put himself out of their price range (HA) in his final year of arbitration. Simply put, they had to move him, for whatever they could get.
The Red Sox meanwhile, were under no such obligation, they have money for days, and they dont even necessarily have to pay Lester next season, instead they can let him walk and pick up the compensatory pick. Instead, they dealt him to the Athletics, for Cespedes and a draft pick which will probably be in the early-70’s range.
The Red Sox managed to deal one of the best pitchers in the game and a right handed power bat, who cant hit righties to save his life, for a draft pick, which wont be *that* far removed from the compensation they would get from Lester, and Yoenis Cespedes. What?!
Basically, the Sox dealt from a position of strength and managed to fortify their lineup for year to come. Even if Cespedes were to walk at the end of next year, Boston still has that draft pick and a very realistic shot at re-signing Lester this offseason. All told, their return may have been even better than what the Rays received for Price.