Although the Red Sox ended up trading long-time ace Jon Lester at the deadline, they did get a pretty good player in return from the A’s in Yoenis Cespedes. GM Ben Cherington acknowledged that Boston fielded some attractive offers involving prospects prior to dealing Lester, but the chance to acquire Cespedes was too good to pass up, especially with the Red Sox seeking to contend again in 2015.
Indeed, the arrival of Cespedes proved a pleasant surprise for Red Sox fans, who had been dreading Lester’s departure in the days leading up to the deadline.
But despite Cespedes’ well-established power and throwing exploits in the outfield, the 28-year-old hasn’t quite been the sterling performer in the past two seasons that he was in his debut back in 2012.
After the A’s signed Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million deal, the Cuban native silenced doubters who thought he would struggle to adjust to big league pitching. Cespedes hit .292/.356/.505 with 23 home runs in 129 games during his rookie season, showing just enough plate discipline and plenty of power to help lead Oakland to the playoffs. He finished the year with an impressive 137 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR.
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Since then, though, Cespedes has failed to recapture his rookie form, and while his power still makes him an above-average hitter at the plate, Cespedes’ on-base percentage has left something to be desired. Over the past calendar year, for instance, he has posted the ninth-worst OBP in baseball among qualified batters. That has caused his overall line between 2013 and 2014 to slip to .247/.298/.451, and his OPS+ to fall from 139 in his first season to 108 in the two years since.
So it’s clear Cespedes could benefit from getting on base a little more, but how he can improve at the plate is a little less certain. Nevertheless, helping Cespedes find a little more consistency with the bat once 2015 rolls around has to be one of Boston’s biggest areas of focus in reviving a lineup that has underperformed this season.
His strikeout rate rose five percent between 2012 and 2013, but Cespedes has trimmed that down to a career-low 18.2% this season, a rate that shouldn’t prevent him from finding more consistency. After finishing with an 8.0% walk rate in 2012, Cespedes has walked in 6.4% of his plate appearances last season and 6.2% in 2014.
In addition, his BABIP has dropped from .326 during his rookie campaign (a mark that was likely aided by some good fortune) to a below average .274 and .278 during the last two seasons. Although a player’s BABIP regularly fluctuates from year-to-year, the fact Cespedes’ has sat below the league average in both 2013 and 2014 indicates the 28-year-old has struggled to make consistent contact.
How have opposing pitchers been finding success in attacking Cespedes then?
As the zone chart below (which shows the location of pitches Cespedes has faced dating back to 2013) demonstrates, opposing hurlers have tended to stay low and away from Boston’s newest slugger:
This makes sense, especially considering all the power Cespedes has. And this next zone chart, which shows the Cuban native’s isolated power by location, indicates pitchers have been wise to avoid the middle and inner portions of the strike zone against Cespedes:
But Cespedes is still susceptible to pitches low and away, especially breaking balls. According to ESPN Tru Media, the outfielder has batted just .248/.285/.457 against sliders since the start of 2013, and an even worse .202/.208/.385 against curveballs.
Those struggles have also left Cespedes vulnerable to pitches up and out of the strike zone, with pitchers clearly finding success changing speeds and eye levels against him. As this last zone chart of Cespedes’ whiff rate since 2013 shows, opposing hurlers have been able to get him to chase pitches up and above the zone with regularity:
Whether Cespedes can find more discipline with the Red Sox and perform better against breaking balls remains to be seen. Making improvements such as these more than 1,500 plate appearances into one’s major league career is difficult, but considering the rarity of Cespedes’ power, even minor tweaks could pay big dividends for the Red Sox.
Moving from the pitcher’s paradise of o.Co coliseum to the shadow of the Green Monster in Fenway should benefit Cespedes enough already, and if he can just improve his approach at the plate in the slightest, Boston’s lineup will benefit greatly.
The Red Sox front office is well aware of Cespedes’ limitations, of course, and they will be working to find any way they can to reap some improvements from his immense ability at the plate. Translating the potential for improvement from a player’s stats page onto the field is the hard part, but that’s the challenge that lies ahead for Boston and Cespedes.
The club’s ability to contend next season will depend greatly on how well their newcomers in Cespedes and Allen Craig perform at the plate, a reality that should make the rest of the 2014 season worth watching even as the Red Sox drop further out of the playoff race.