Clay Buchholz has pitched in a Red Sox uniform for eight years now, and he remains a mystery, someone who can equally dazzle and frustrate from start to start (or often, inning to inning).
One year, Buchholz performs like the best pitcher in baseball for the first eight weeks of the season; the next, he is one of the worst qualified starters in MLB. No one questions Buchholz’s stuff—the low-to-mid 90s fastball with movement, the heavy, 12-to-6 curveball, and a changeup that can make baseball’s best hitters swing and find nothing but air.
But his inconsistency is maddening and mystifying, the only constant in an otherwise up-and-down career. Even at the age of 30, no one knows who Clay Buchholz is.
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This season, the right-hander has simply been bad. His 5.77 ERA ranks second-worst among qualified starters, and even though his 4.27 FIP and 4.16 xFIP indicate some misfortune has come his way, Buchholz has never resembled the pitcher who dominated American League hitters at the beginning of last season.
In the midst of such a woeful year, though, Buchholz can still flash signs of his talented self, as he did Monday in Toronto. Over 8 1/3 innings, Buchholz allowed only four hits, leaving the game after two seeing-eye singles and a walk loaded the bases in the ninth. The outing wasn’t just a reminder of how great Buchholz can be, but also how vital the righty is to the Red Sox’s hopes of contending again in 2015.
Yet does Boston have any reason for optimism when it comes to Buchholz? The 2014 campaign has seen the Texas native post his highest BABIP (.327) and lowest LOB% (62.4%) in a single season since 2008, his first full year as a big leaguer. At his best, like in 2010 and 2013, Buchholz is a hurler who can induce weak contact and strand runners, while also keeping the ball in the park. Indeed. Buchholz’s HR/FB rate has skyrocketed from a year ago, marking another reason for his subpar campaign.
So if Buchholz’s performance on balls in play and with men on base can regress back to normal next season, he does have some hopes for improvement.
Still, other worrying signs indicate that Buchholz has some kinks to work out before he is back to his best. His groundball rate has decreased every year dating back to 2009, a trend that has coincided with an annual dip in velocity on both his fastball and sinker. Gone are the days in which Buchholz could turn to mid-90s heat to get himself out of trouble. Command, especially of his fastball, has grown far more vital to his performance, a reality that has caused a great deal of struggle for a pitcher who so routinely loses his mechanics and ability to repeat his delivery.
Despite all the praise showered on Buchholz’s offspeed stuff, his fastball is the biggest key to his success. His changeup has always drawn the most attention (especially this season, when Buchholz has lost confidence in the offering at times), but when the right-hander can use his fastball effectively, it helps unlock the rest of his arsenal.
In 2013, when Buchholz posted a 1.71 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 84 innings over his first 12 starts, his fastball was his most important pitch, holding opponents to a .225 batting average and .317 slugging percentage, according to Brooks Baseball. He threw the pitch 42% of the time (more than any other offering), a rate that has decreased to 35% in 2014. His effectiveness with the fastball has diminished at the same time, with opposing batters hitting .302 and slugging .481 against the pitch this year.
A look at the differing locations of Buchholz’s heaters in 2013 and this year demonstrates just why the offering has lost its effectiveness—his fastball command has been all over the place in 2014.
Buchholz’s fastball locations in 2013:
In 2014:
Buchholz has left his fastball up in the zone and out over the plate far more often this season, which has led to poor results. It is likely no coincidence, moreover, that in his strong outing against the Jays on Monday, he had success with his fastball, throwing the offering more often than he had since May 15 against the Twins.
Smoothing out Buchholz’s mechanics, with an eye toward recapturing his fastball command, has to be a major focus for the Red Sox heading into 2015. An effective fastball allows Buchholz to get ahead of hitters, enabling him to put them away with his stellar offspeed stuff. It also gives him another weapon with which to attack opposing batters.
Whether Buchholz can recapture his fastball is a big question mark. He has never been an easy pitcher to pin down, a reality that grows starker every time he takes the hill for the Red Sox. With a pitching staff devoid of established talent, however, the Red Sox will need Clay Buchholz to find that elusive bit of consistency if they are to bounce back from last place in the AL East in 2015.