Is Clay Buchholz ready to fulfil his potential? Probably not. -photo by Kelly O’Connor
That title is pretty poor, but it’s better than the swill I was considering, like Pab-no Sandoval, or even No-le Hamels. Obviously, those didnt make the cut so this article must be going in another direction.
The Red Sox have almost completely remade their roster in the span of about a month, including a completely revamped pitching staff. That said, while most people would be fairly content going into Opening Day with the starting five the Red Sox currently possess, the one thing the staff lacks is an ace. The definition of an ace is a bit squishy in this context, and I don’t really want to try and invent a definition when we all know, essentially, what an ace is.
There’s been some talk that Rick Porcello might get a little closer to his upside without Detroit’s statuesque infield behind him. The Red Sox have made a clear shift toward ground ball-oriented pitchers this offseason in order to play to one of their strengths, infield defense. Looking around the infield, catcher included, the only player who probably doesnt have a chance at a Gold Glove is Xander Bogaerts (to be clear, if you think Pablo Sandoval is a poor defender, you’re wrong but that’s okay). Even Bogaerts is one of the most athletic guys on the club and, at age 22, his defense will only improve.
With a new defense behind him, Porcello has a chance to become an absolute monster in his age-26 season. Porcello has averaged a 52.1% Ground ball rate through his seven years as a professional, a number which would probably be a bit higher had he not posted a 49% rate in 2014. But while Porcello has a chance to hit that ace/frontline potential, and Clay Buchholz has the ‘stuff’, it appears that Boston’s rotation is chock full of #3-starter types.
While the ‘ace’ problem might not be easily solved, there may be a way to pick up at least a #2 on the cheap. Now bear with me because the stupid Royals went and ruined the first draft of this column by signing Kris Medlen on Thursday. Medlen would have been the perfect addition to the rotation, given his low home run percentage and his relatively high groundball rate. Medlen inked a deal for two years and 8.5 million, essentially pennies to a Red Sox club which has already publicly stated they’re willing to blow by the Luxury Tax threshold. The low-risk, high-reward opportunity presented by Medlen could have filled that front-of-the-rotation need for Boston at a low cost.
Sure, injuries are an issue, as coming back from Tommy John is never a sure thing, but that’s the low-risk part, you throw what amounts to pennies at a guy who may or may not help you out. With Medlen off the market, the Red Sox can still dive into the non-tender pool (or dumpster, see title) to plug a hole in the rotation. Medlen’s former rotationmate, Brandon Beachy was similarly non-tendered after the 2014 season. You may recall that Beachy went on an absolute tear in 2012 before being shut down with ‘elbow discomfort’ and eventually needing Tommy John Surgery. Fast forward to 2014, and Beachy needs another Tommy John and will miss the entire season. So over the last three seasons Beachy has thrown 151 innings, less than Porcello has thrown in each season in the majors.
I’m not suggesting Beachy is going to step in an turn in a Clayton Kershaw-esque season, but the last time he was truly healthy, the start of 2012, he was undoubtedly the ace of the Braves’ rotation. His 41.5 GB% ranks only a few ticks behind Wade Miley and Clay Buchholz’ while his 8.9 HR/FB ratio easily tops every current member of the rotation.
Small sample size and all, I know, but Beachy should sign a relatively manageable contract, despite the amount of interest he has supposedly received. Medlen would have been a perfect under-the-rader signing, but in light of the dumb Royals, his rotation-mate would make a good choice as well. While he wouldn’t SOLVE any issues, he would give the Red Sox a potential mid-rotation piece as bad-Buchholz/bad-Masterson/bad-Kelly insurance.