Understanding what a pitcher is best suited for is the number one job of a manager and especially one who used to be a pitching coach. In the eight inning it was clear Koji Uehara did not have his control so Farrell went to his closer for a five out save with the bases load in a tie game. This isn’t a condemnation of Farrell for using a closer in a non save situation. That is something that gets overblown. The real issue is something that should be more obvious to him and left his team in a spot where they lost a game they should have won.
FORT MYERS, FL – MARCH 15: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during the fifth inning of the Spring Training Game against the New York Yankees on March 15, 2016 at Jet Blue Park at Fenway South, Fort Myers, Florida. The Yankees defeated the Red Sox 6-3. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
In a bases loaded situation there is very little room for error and while Craig Kimbrel might be the one guy you want in a situation where you need a strikeout such as this he’s not the perfect option. Before we get to that though lets go back to the 7th inning. After having a good day on the mound Clay Buchholz was relieved by Junichi Tarawa who threw TWO pitches to finish the inning. I understand the new ideal for the pen is Tarawa in the 7th, Uehara in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th. That said you essentially wasted a day for Tazawa by having him warm up and throw a total of two pitches.
The best answer regardless of what Uehara does is to let Tazawa start the eight inning and then either skip Uehara or have him come in if Tazawa struggles. In the end Uehara had no control of his splitter and we ended up in the situation discussed. So many teams would gladly ask a closer to go an extra few outs and the Red Sox might be ok to do that in the future. In a bases loaded spot I have to say I’m against playing Kimbrel.
In his career Kimbrel throws 3.40 walks for every nine innings. After today he’s currently standing at 6.75 in the small sample of 6.2 innings this season. The obvious statement here is Kimbrel is not a sure thing to get a pitch over the plate. He walks 10 percent of hitters in his career and has walked 17 percent of hitters faced this season. Sure you want a strikeout in that situation, but a groundball wouldn’t hurt at all and might be a better outcome if it’s hard enough for a double play.
In the end I think I might be crazy, but based on what you want to do in that spot you go with Robbie Ross only because you wasted Tazawa already. Ross does have a few walks in him, but for his career he walks out less than 8 percent of hitters compared to Kimbrel’s 10 percent. While Kimbrel will strikeout many more batters you still have to deal with the extra walk possibility and what happens if the ball is put in play.
For his career Ross has a 50 percent roundball rate on ball put in play and Kimbrel is at a career rate of 44 percent. Both in walk rate and ground ball rate it’s an edge to Ross although strikeout is clear to Kimbrel. Added to this debate has to be how Kimbrel has looked this season. While is velocity and movement look solid he’s just not getting the edge of the plate and not drawing swings. His career swing rates against are 31% outside the zone, 61% in the zone. This season those numbers are 23% and 49% respectively.
Obviously counting on Robbie Ross in a huge spot is not what you want especially against the heart of the Blue Jays order. Instead to count on a pitcher working through control issues who is a walk every ten batters under normal situations is not better in my opinion. I would say the biggest issue of the day had to be the decision to let Tazawa only throw the two pitches in the 7th inning. To not use him in the 8th and potentially rest the 41 year old Uehara was the biggest offense of the night.