With pitchers and catchers just about a month away, the Red Sox have, for the most part, finished their offseason moves. However, two prominent Sox stars are arbitration eligible, closer Jonathan Papelbon and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Theo Epstien and crew have been able to avoid going to arbitration hearings during his tenure. Will Papelbon, who made $9.35M in 2010, try and break the bank and take the Sox to arbitration?
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Back in 2009, Jonathan Papelbon and the Sox were able to avoid arbitration by agreeing on a one-year $6.25M deal, which was basically a $6M raise from his previous contract. Then, before last season, the two sides again came to an agreement, this time on a one-year $9.35M deal, a raise of roughly $3M. With 37 saves on his resume for the 2010 season, Papelbon is due for yet another raise — despite opinions that saves shouldn’t matter, and they shouldn’t, they do. The question is by how much?
By all accounts, 2010 was a down year for Papelbon despite the 37 saves. Along with those 37 saves came eight blown saves as well as the highest ERA (3.90), FIP (3.51), walks per nine innings (3.76) and home runs per nine innings (0.94) of his career — This is not counting his 34 inning debut in 2005. However, other peripheral stats like his strikeouts per nine (10.29), whiff rate (25.7 percent) and chase rate (35.7 percent) all rated as well above average.
Agents and team front offices often use comparisons to other players and contracts as a base for contract negotiations. For closers, the player pool for potential comparisons is not very deep, especially for the closers who have been able to hold their job for a number of years. Some of the games most prominent closers (and their 2011 salaries) include…
Mariano Rivera $15M
Francisco Cordero $12M
Francisco Rodriguez $11.5M
Brad Lidge $11.5M
Joe Nathan $11.25M
Jose Valverde $7M
The closest comps of that group, in terms of service time, would be Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde.
How about some recently signed free agent relievers…
Bobby Jenks $6M – Now a fellow Red Sox pen-mate, Jenks was also coming off of his worst season in terms of ERA. However, Jenks posted a much better FIP (2.59), K/BB rate (3.39) and HR/9 (0.51) compared to Papelbon. He saved 10 fewer games in 2010 and threw 14.8 fewer innings.
J.J. Putz $4M – Coming back strong after an injury plagued 2009, Putz didn’t accrue many saves as one of Bobby Jenks’ setup men, but he did post the second best FIP of his career (2.52). Putz is more or less representative of the middle tier relievers that signed this offseason. Most got multi-year deals in the $4-6M per year range.
Clearly, aside from the Yankees and Mariano Rivera, which is a unique circumstance, relievers are not brining in the big-bucks — well, they are, but not the $10-plus M per year they were getting in the past. However, Papelbon is more likely to be held in comparison with the K-Rod’s and Valverde’s of the baseball world.
Based on the salaries above, it would seem that Papelbon is guaranteed to break the $10M mark, but not by much. My guess is that he and the Red Sox avoid going to arbitration and agree on a one-year, $11.5M deal, which puts him in the same money class as K-Rod and Joe Nathan.
What’s your guess?