I would like to say this projection of third place finish is something we can expect going forward, but this team has truly been built on scouting that should put the rest of the league to shame. Any other team that lost Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano, Matt Garza and of course Carl Crawford with a budget of $72 million might be crying about the big markets, but not the Rays. They have a farm ready to fill those holes and perhaps even make them better.
Statistics code: AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters. W-L, ERA, WHIP for starters. ERA, WHIP, IP for relievers.
Catcher: John Jaso (2010 stats: .263/.372/.378); Kelly Shoppach(2010 stats: .196/.308/.342)
This looks like a platoon and Jaso earned his shot with a solid 404 PA last year. He’s not going to show much power, but a catcher who can get on base around 36 percent of the time is quite valuable. If Shoppach can replicate his power from his Cleveland days he might steal more at bats. Defensively they both are rated below average on runs saved against steals with a -2.0 last year for both of them. Without a huge power year the Rays should avoid Shoppach’s free swinging and go with Jaso. He should be average or even slightly above average behind the plate.
First Base: Dan Johnson (2010 stats: .198/.343/.414)
Looking at Carlos Pena’s stat line from 2010 (.196/.325/.407) there is a scary comparison between these two. The problem is Pena has a history of success and Dan Johnson has largely been a bust. His plate discipline is great with a career 13.3 walk percentage, but his power has not been strong enough to fill the hitting needs of a first baseman. In five major league seasons his career WAR stands at 3.0. It’s possible Ben Zobrist moves to first if Johnson can’t get the job done as the Rays had excess outfielders to cover the switch.
Second Base: Sean Rodriguez (2010 stats: .251/.308/.397)
His minor league numbers showed a better eye than Rodriguez displayed last year. So far though that hasn’t fully translated to the majors and last year it showed in his .308 OBP. He has some pop and good speed. He looks solid for a 10/10 season and with a bit of growth could go 15/15. Last year he showed good range at the second base position, but we’ll need a bigger sample. The fan scouting report is good though saving 5 runs defensively. In a full season he should supply above average results from second base.
Third Base: Evan Longoria (2010 stats: .294/.372/.507)
While supplying 7 wins above replacement last year Longoria made a skimpy $0.95 million. One of the best deals in baseball and projected to give the Rays another 7 wins above replacement again this year and should contend for an MVP. Without Carl Crawford in Tampa this year the pressure is on Longoria to keep this up. As long as he is healthy though the Rays can count on his solid production. That includes his gold glove defense, which is backed up by league leading UZR over the past three years at third, which has saved over 10 runs a season.
Shortstop: Reid Brignac (2010 stats: .256/.307/.385); Elliot Johnson (2010 stats: .319/.375/.475 – Triple-A)
After hitting for solid power in Single and Double-A, Brignac has seen his power fall off in Triple-A and last year in the majors. He may hit 15 home runs, but without some changes I wouldn’t expect much more. His plate discipline has been poor as well making his final line not much to look at. Johnson is more of a utility option right now with OF, 2B, SS and 3B as potential positions. He has impressed though in Triple-A and has some great speed. He doesn’t walk much more than Brignac, but his speed could give him the BABIP edge to get on base and with 30 steals last year and 11 in spring training he might become an option if Zobrist sticks in right field.
Left Field: Johnny Damon (2010 stats: .271/.355/.401); Matt Joyce (2010 stats: .241/.360/.477)
I can’t say how this will turn out, but my guess is not very well. Damon lost his power last year largely due to the move from left handed friendly Yankee Staadium to Comerica Park. NY inflates home runs for lefties by 24 percent, but Comerica deflates by 10 percent. I’m afraid Tropicana is about the same at a deflation of 11 percent. Without power and his aging defense he is a below average left fielder. This has to raise the question why not just play Matt Joyce? He has power to hit 15-20 home runs, play a better defense and can walk much better than Damon. Neither would replace Crawford, but Joyce is the better option.
The best option of course is to let Desmond Jennings loose. Known as Carl Crawford with better plate discipline he would make an immediate impact on the Rays. I can’t see him spending another full season in Triple-A, but there isn’t anywhere to play him yet.
Center Field: B.J. Upton (2010 stats: .237/.322/.424); Sam Fuld (2010 stats: .143/.226/.179)
The power was back in 2010 for Upton with 18 home runs, but look out for those wild swings. His strikeout rate spiked over 30 percent much like his first season when he hit 24 home runs. Even with the wild swing his power and speed make him a valuable outfielder and while his UZR was down in 2010 he is still a plus defender. He should continue to be above average adding 3 or 4 wins above replacement in center field. Fuld will be in the rotation for outfield time as well, but with no power, some speed and an OK glove based on what he has shown he will only play due to an injury.
Right Field: Ben Zobrist (2010 stats: .238/.346/.353)
It was a lot to ask Zobrist to repeat his 2009 season and he fell far short of that. If MVP voting went strictly by WAR he would have won the AL award trailing only Albert Pujols in all of baseball during 2009. The good news in 2010 was a continue good eye and solid contact, but the power disappeared shown by his SLG dropping from .543 to .353. Perhaps some was due to the distraction of position change, but I think his 2009 power might be an outlier. His defense so far in right field has been spectacular, but needs more sample to see how real it is. Zobrist could be the player to fill some of the hole left by Crawford if he can repeat some of that power and defense.
Designated Hitter: Manny Ramirez (2010 stats: .298/.409/.460)
That SLG rate was the lowest of his career since his 55 AB season of 1993. He won’t see much help from Tropicana which hampers righties as much as Dodger Stadium. Manny will also have to deal with the move to full time DH. There has been studies that show much like pinch hitting, the move to DH can be a negative to a players hitting skills. The team is only paying $2 million though so a very smart gamble. I don’t think Matt Joyce’s bat would handle the DH spot compared to Ramirez even at this stage.
Starting Pitcher 1: David Price (2010 stats: 19-6, 2.72, 1.19)
I still have concerns about the walk rate and his ground ball numbers plummeted, but you can’t argue with results like that. Even his FIP was solid at 3.42 when you account for a low BABIP and HR/FB%. That BABIP seems to be partly due to the home park and the team defense. The loss of Crawford could hurt a bit and his HR/FB should regress. Even with the regression he’s a top pitcher, but not the elite one his ERA suggested last year.
Starting Pitcher 2: James Shields (2010 stats: 13-15, 5.18, 1.46)
Shields might want to try some high five moves with Price to rub off some of that good luck. He had the highest strike out rate of his career, but a BABIP of .341 and a HR/FB% of 13.8 percent sent him to the worst ERA of his career. Here is another case of regression, but headed in the right direction for Rays fans. In the end I think Shields will be just as valuable to the Rays this year as Price with regards to wins above replacement.
Starting Pitcher 3: Wade Davis (2010 stats: 12-10, 4.07, 1.35)
The low strikeout rate last year would worry me and his ERA had a lot of help from a low BABIP to get to what they are. He’s still young, but his walk rate will hamper his results. Based on his minor league numbers I think he can improve the strikeout rate this year and get the results of a solid #3 or #4. He won’t be a key to the staff, but a solid contributor.
Starting Pitcher 4: Jeremy Hellickson(2010 stats: 4-0, 3.47, 1.10)
Oh Crap. If David Price continues to throw a ground ball rate in the low 40’s then I can see Hellickson jumping quickly to ace status on this team. When I see a strikeout pitcher who can control wis walks in the minors I begin to expect big things. Price has always had issues with his walk numbers, but Hellickson seems to have better control. The fly ball rate will be an issue, but he’ll also benefit from a home park that deflates left handed hitting power. The Rays will work to control his innings, but next year his stat line should put him in the top 2 of this group.
Starting Pitcher 5: Jeff Niemann(2010 stats: 12-8, 4.39, 1.26)
Matthew Moore is still a year or two away, but this spot will be his once he is ready. Niemann is nothing great and nothing terrible. He is average or maybe just below average, but has benefited from the solid Rays defense. If he struggles the Rays have Andy Sonnanstine in the bullpen who is essentially the sixth starter.
Relief Pitching: Kyle Farnsworth (2010 stats: 3.34, 1.14, 64.2); Joel Peralta (2010 stats: 2.02, 0.80, 49.0); Jake McGee (2010 stats: 1.80, 1.00, 5.0); Adam Russell (2010 stats: 4.02, 1.21, 15.2); J.P. Howell (2010 stats: 2.84, 1.20, 66.2)
The Professor is definitely nowhere near Rafael Soriano, but a solid option to close for them in 2011. It’s possible another option could emerge before the year is out. J.P. Howell has the “previous experience” that managers like and could get some time, but I want to see what Jake McGee can do this year. With K/9 rates of 10-16 in the minors he is intriguing. I’m sure the team wouldn’t drop the pressure on him like that, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens if he continues where he finished 2010. At any rate John Sickels knows more about it than me and he called him the future closer. The bullpen is going to have some growing pains, but the new faces have added potential and could round out a solid pitching group.