Last night, an eighth inning double by Jarrod Saltalamacchia, which brought in Carl Crawford for the game-winning run, put the cap on what was a great day of pitching for the Sox. Clay Buchholz stepped up big-time, going seven strong innings, allowing no runs on four hits while walking only one and striking out seven. Buchholz has been stepping up just about every time out of late and it couldn’t come at a better time.
News broke on Monday that woeful starter John Lackey would be hitting the DL due to a “strained right elbow.” Whether he actually has a strained elbow or not is up for debate (His velocity has been fine, his mental game has not). Either way, finding a replacement within the organization would not be an easy task. Then, yesterday, we found out that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be joining Lackey on the DL with a sprained right elbow. Dice-K’s velocity was noticeably down in his last start and his command was almost nowhere to be found — not that his command is anything to brag about in the first place.
Replacing Lackey and Dice-K in the rotation will be Tim Wakefield and Alfredo Aceves. Wakefield is currently the proud owner of a 5.40 ERA, 5.24 FIP and 11/8 K/BB rate and he has posted -0.1 WAR so far this season. ZiPS projects a 4.91 ERA for the rest of the season. Unlike Wakefield, Aceves has had much better results. In 17.1 innings Aceves has posted a 2.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. However, his FIP (5.35) and -0.2 WAR tell a different tale. Aceves has a 9/6 K/BB rate and has already allowed three home runs. There is almost no way, especially in a starting role, that he can continue to get by with a .173 BABIP and 88 percent strand rate.
My guess is that Lackey only misses the minimum and returns to the rotation right away. Whether he can put his early season issues behind him when he returns is the big question. The situation with Dice-K is a bit more, well, dicey.
Thankfully, amid this bad news, Clay Buchholz has been pitching more like his 2010 version.
Since the start of May, Buchholz hasn’t allowed over two earned runs in any start and has a 22/5 K/BB rate. He has only allowed one home run in his four May starts after allowing six homers in five April starts. Buchholz’s last three starts have been especially impressive with a 20/3 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. Not only is he starting to miss bats more often, but he is inducing much weaker contact as well — his groundball rate is over 50 percent and his infield flyball rate is around 20 percent this month.
One adjustment that Buchholz has made has been to throw more fastballs — in particular, more two-seamers — and throw fewer curveballs, a pitch that he had trouble locating in April. Not only is his two-seamer moving a bit more horizontally, but he has added, on average, two MPH on the pitch.
If Buchholz continues to limit free passes and keeps the ball in the ballpark, he should continue to see more positive results than negative ones the rest of the way.
Things are far from settled in the Sox rotation, but it seems like Buchholz has finally settled in.