With Clay Buchholz continuing to progress in his recovery from a stress fracture in his lower back, many within the Boston sports media and blogosphere have speculated about his potential role come playoff time. Last week, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal intimated the Red Sox might be best served temporarily moving Buchholz to the bullpen given the relatively short time frame remaining before the start of the postseason. This week, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe has an entirely different take.
“Let’s assume for a second that Buchholz suffers no setbacks and by the start of the postseason has built up sufficient arm strength to throw 50 or so pitches in a game.
Here’s my crazy idea: Start him.
Who would you rather see in Game 4, Clay Buchholz for 3+ innings followed by Alfredo Aceves for three innings or John Lackey?”
While assuming Buchholz doesn’t suffer any setbacks is a fairly reasonable proposition, it still might be a tad optimistic. As I mentioned in July (when everyone else assumed an early August return was a foregone conclusion), lower back injuries are incredibly tricky. All it takes is an awkward twist or fall, and he could re-trigger the injury; thus forcing him back to the sideline. I’m not saying the Red Sox should treat him as they would a glass figurine, but I do think they should proceed with extreme caution as he continues his rehabilitation process. As a long-term piece to the puzzle, I don’t think it’s wise to risk a potentially valuable commodity for short term success. Yes, that even includes winning a championship.
Even if I didn’t feel this way, I still don’t think it’s in the best interest of either the player or the team to push Buchholz back into the rotation for the playoffs. For starters, his rehab is in the very early stages. As of Wednesday, the most he’s done is participate in long toss off of flat ground from 90-100 feet. On Friday, the plan is for him to throw from 120 feet. While this is certainly progress, he still hasn’t faced the biggest test of all, throwing off of the mound. The earliest that will happen is next week, and even that done will be a reduced velocity.
Secondly, as Abraham mentioned, Buchholz would probably only be able to provide three to four innings in a theoretical Game 4 ALCS start. After that, he’d need to make way for Alfredo Aceves and the rest of the bullpen for the next several innings. While I see why Abraham perfers this idea to the sending out the notoriously combustible John Lackey, I’m not sure it’s feasible. Sure, in a vacuum it might work, but what happens if the Red Sox are coming off two consecutive games where their bullpen has been taxed. If you send out Buchholz in that situation, Francona will have to rely on his bullpen for at least 5-6 innings. By sending out Lackey, he has a pretty good shot of having to use his bullpen for no more than 2-3 innings. Furthermore, even if we narrowed down the scenario to the bullpen being taxed for only one game (Game 3), pitching Buchholz in Game 4 still puts Francona in a precarious situation for Game 5. While the suggestion has been considered in good faith, it’s just not practical.
Another question I have is how does Abraham know Buchholz will pitch any better than Lackey. I don’t mean that as an accusatory statement, but instead as a serious question. Since we’ve seen Lackey all season, we can reasonably predict how he might pitch. The same can’t be said for Buchholz who hasn’t pitched in a game since June 16th. Regardless of how well his recovery goes, he won’t be afforded the luxury of making a few minor league rehab starts in preparation for the playoffs at this point. As a result, he’ll be forced to work out any kinks in his delivery during side sessions, simulated games, and live games. Typically, if someone’s working out kinks in his delivery, it affect the location and command of his pitches. Maybe it’s just me, but the last person I want to see start a playoff game is someone who can’t repeat his delivery. In that situation, I’d rather take the erratic guy I know. I know it sounds crazy, but occasionally that inconsistency leads to a gem of a performance. In this case, it may not; but with there being so many unknown variables with Buchholz, I’d feel more comfortable keeping to short performances out of the pen.
What are your thoughts? Is Abraham right? Should the Red Sox give Buchholz a shot in the playoff rotation if he’s ready? Or do you agree with my take? Let me know by posting your opinions in the comment section below!
