Jon Lester normally keeps his average fastball velocity around 93 MPH, but lately, that velocity has tailed off and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Over his last few starts, starts that the Sox needed their co-ace to come up big, Lester has fizzled out faster than normal. As you can see from pitch f/x data (via BrooksBaseball.net), Lester experienced a drop in velocity somewhere right around pitch 30 yesterday. The graphs below show all pitch velocities, but you can see that not even the spikes are touching the 94 MPH range.
9/24/11
This didn’t occur in his start prior to last, but it certainly did the start on 9/11/11, when he was crushed for four runs on eight hits in four innings…
Could the lat strain that cost him time earlier this season be reoccurring now? Perhaps a different injury? We can’t say that with any certainty, but it is is certainly a question that is on everyone’s mind.
At this point, what’s done is done. The way things have been going, Lester might not even get another start this season. If the Sox are in position, he’d have to go on three days rest and pitch against the Orioles on the last day of the season. Only one other time in his regular season career has Lester pitched on three days rest.
For a pitcher known for stopping cold streaks and being the leader of the rotation, this September has been one to forget and it’s not over just yet.
P.S. As the whole season is concerned, Lester’s velocity is down from where it was last year (graph via FanGraphs)
