When the Red Sox completed their 7-20 September collapse, and missed out on a once-certain playoff berth; it was pretty clear that a few heads would roll. Now, a little over two weeks later, former manager Terry Francona and ownership have “mutually” parted ways, and the only things separating Theo Epstein from becoming the new Cubs GM are technicalities. Obviously, the restructuring won’t stop there. The players are not immune, and the new GM (presumably, Ben Cherington) will need to make some incredibly tough decisions about the personnel he or she (allowing for the possibility of Kim Ng) inherits. Some of these decisions are likely to be unpopular with some, but these things tend to happen when leadership changes hands. Provided the changes are rooted in rational thought, I’ll support them.
Yesterday, John Tomase of the Boston Herald shared an interesting idea that could satisfy those calling for not only a restructure the roster, but also a complete team chemistry facelift: trade Josh Beckett.
“But scrubbing the margins won’t cut it. Bid adieu to veterans Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek if you want — truly altering clubhouse culture requires bigger changes.
And once you start examining the possibilities, all roads lead to the same conclusion:
Josh Beckett must go.”
On a purely emotional level, this move seems satisfying. Beckett’s widely considered to be the ringleader, and many of the pitchers on the staff (especially the younger members) are in awe of him. Removing him from the equation would theoretically break up the boys club, and establish a sense of accountability in the clubhouse. As Tomase mentioned later in the article, this isn’t the first such incident of immaturity on Beckett’s part. In 2003, Beckett and pal Brad Penny were known for spending too much time in the clubhouse during games. To remedy this, Florida manager Jack McKeon resorted to locking the clubhouse doors during games to force Beckett and Penny to sit on the bench and cheer their teammates.
Of course, many might point to McKeon’s actions during the Marlins World Series championship season in 2003, and come to the conclusion of “If only Tito had locked the clubhouse door…” It’s not that simple. As we discussed in the comments section of other articles in recent days, the actions of the starting pitchers, though disrespectful, likely didn’t impact their on-field performance. We can blame chicken, beer, and video games all we want, but it was a non-issue for most of the season. Through August 31st when the Red Sox were 83-52 and held a 1-1/2 game lead over the Yankees for the division, Beckett and Jon Lester were two of the best pitchers in the game. Did their daily routine of gluttony go become toxic on September 1st? Doubtful, but it probably wasn’t productive.
A couple of things to consider when putting the actions by the Red Sox starting rotation into perspective:
- Babe Ruth’s conditioning consisted of liquor, cigars, loose women, and a buffet table worth of food.
- David Wells pitched a perfect game drunk.
- Dock Ellis pitched a no-hitter high on acid.
- Kevin Millar, Johnny Damon, and the rest of Idiots regularly did shots before, during, and after games. Also, David Ortiz admitted in a recent interview that fried chicken, beer, and video games had been part of Red Sox clubhouse culture since he joined the team in 2003.
- In a recent interview on the Dan Patrick show, Al Leiter shared that the Mets had a “porn room” in their clubhouse.
Are you starting to understand why no one should make decisions based on emotional reactions?
Let’s step away from the emotional, intangible side of the problem, and focus on logical side of the equation. Does moving Beckett still make sense? Tomase thinks it does.
“Despite suffering a relapse, Beckett should still have trade value. After all, only 11 pitchers won at least 13 games last year while posting an ERA below 2.90 and Beckett was one of them. Even with $46 million remaining on his contract through 2014, the 31-year-old remains a bona fide high-end starter.”
I’m not saying I’d definitely look to move Beckett, but I’d certainly keep the option open. At age-31 he’s coming off arguably his best season since 2007 statistically. He’s an ace (or near ace) quality pitcher with a fairly reasonable contract, and his trade value won’t likely get any higher. Despite the potential chemistry issues, we’re likely to see a few teams interested in acquiring his services.
While losing Beckett would certainly create a hole in the rotation, it would open up several other opportunities for the front office. For instance, a trade might help the restock a farm system that’s hasn’t produced a bonafide major league player since Daniel Bard in 2009.* Considering Beckett’s contract status, a hefty return of Grade A prospects or even equal value is unlikely. As a result, the front office would need to receive a reasonable offer to seriously consider moving the right-hander. Still, I think they should be willing to entertain offers, as they might receiving some potentially intriguing ones in return.
* Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubront, and Kyle Weiland are all still unknown quantities with noticeable flaws at this point.
Secondly, depending on how much of Beckett’s contract the Red Sox are forced to eat, a trade could free up enough money to make a serious run on free-agent-to-be C.C. Sabathia. While stealing Sabathia out from under the Yankees nose seems unlikely, it’s certainly possible as Matthew Kory of Over the Monster pointed out last week. Even if it’s not Sabathia the Red Sox acquire, they could make a run at C.J. Wilson, or work to trade for another top-end starting pitcher. The point is that moving Beckett creates options that could put the Red Sox in a better position both competitively and financially.
Obviously, Beckett probably isn’t first on your list of players to trade. That would probably be John Lackey. Although we’d all love to move Lackey, it probably won’t happen any time soon. He’s coming off of a disasterous season that was rife with terrible performance, abrasive behavior, and personal trauma. Plus, with three years and $45.75M remaining on his deal, he’s not exactly a steal. The Red Sox could look to dump him in a problem-for-problem type of trade, but it’s tough to imagine anyone willing to take on the entire package.
A few have mentioned Carlos Zambrano as a possible option, but he has only one year at $18M remaining on his deal. So he’s not really a match. Barry Zito is another option, but it’s way too far from perfect to ever happen. While there’s still hope of recouping some value out of Lackey, Zito’s completely washed up. He’s a sunk cost. People have mentioned Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells, but neither bring much to the table. Plus, there are better, cheaper options to plug the hole in right field. Essentially, in lieu of an incredibly creative suggestion, the Red Sox are stuck with him for the foreseeable future. Oh, and no, they’re not going to give him his outright release.
The Red Sox front office is going to be faced with several tough decisions this winter on players like Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, Jonathan Papelbon, David Ortiz, Marco Scutaro, and possibly even guys like Kevin Youkilis and Beckett. With a new regime in place, they have an opportunity to make reasonable, marked changes without affecting the core of the team. TAll reasonable options should remain on the table. As a team that went 81-41 over a 122 game stretch this past season, they’re not far from being serious World Series contenders again. A few tweaks are all that’s necessary. Still, if they can make a big move or two to shake things up, it might be worthwhile in the long run. This why trading Beckett may not be optimal, but it’s certainly an idea to consider.