On Thursday, ESPN analyst Keith Law released his annual ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game. Before ESPN, Law had a job in the Blue Jay’s front office as a special assistant to the general manager and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus. Needless to say, he’s one of the most respected talent evaluators in the game. That being said, the Red Sox have to be hoping that his evaluation is a little off this year.
Law doesn’t have a Boston player ranked in the top 50. A Red Sox player doesn’t show up on this list until all the way down at #62. That player is Xander Bogaerts, who we wrote about a little while ago. Bogaerts has a high ceiling, and is already getting comparisons to a young Troy Tulowitzki. Although he plays shortstop now, many scouts, including Law, expect him to move to third base soon. His bulky build, which should only get bigger, gives him limited range as it is. Law makes note of the fact that he made an error every three games, which certainly would not help his case as a short stop. Law finishes his analysis of Bogaerts by saying that “Bogaerts is the Red Sox’s best chance right now to produce an All-Star.” The problem is, Bogaerts is only nineteen years old, and seeing as he has not gotten an at bat above the single A level, it will be at least another year before Bogaerts has a chance to make an impact at the major league level. One can only hope that he sustains the level of play he showed last year when he moves up to double A this year.
The next Boston player on the list doesn’t come until the very end. Catcher Blake Swihart checks in at #100. As Law notes, Swihart is extremely raw, but he has the bat speed and arm strength of an All-Star. Like Bogearts, Swihart is still only 19, and has quite a bit of development to go through before he is ready for the major league level. Theo Epstein went all out to sign Swihart, who was committed to the University of Texas. No one expected him to actually reach a deal with whatever team drafted him, but Epstein came through with a deal worth nearly two million dollars. Law compares him to Matt Wieters, saying he needs to work on his power stroke and game calling ability, but with enough reps behind the plates, these things should come naturally. Also like Bogearts, Swihart may have to change positions if his defense doesn’t improve. Law mentions third base as a potential spot, but this would decrease his value significantly. It’s not often a team can acquire a switch hitting catcher with plus power, defense, and arm strength. If he pans out as expected, Swihart could be a star.
So, with only two players in the top 100, Boston’s system obviously isn’t as strong as it has been for the past few years. Law has their system ranked at #18 overall, saying “This system is terribly thin up top given the money the Red Sox have spent in the past few years on amateur players. I do see a large group of prospects from low Class A and below that should produce a couple of breakout prospects in 2012.” As is the case with Bogearts and Swihart, the Sox have a surplus of very young prospects with all star potential. Players like Brandon Jacobs, Matt Barnes, and Sean Coyle all have great potential. The challenge for the Sox will be the way they handle the transition from now until these kids are ready. It will most likely be two years before any of these players are ready, the Sox have to find solutions until that time comes.
If you had asked me to pick the two players from the Red Sox system that would make this top 100 list, Xander Bogearts and Blake Swihart would not have been my choices. It seems a little strange that Will Middlebrooks, the consensus top prospect in the system, was left off. Players like Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnway, and even Jose Iglesias certainly have strong cases to be on the list.
The biggest problem for the Sox may be the fact that their rivals all have systems that are undoubtedly stronger. Law ranks the Tampa Bay Rays second on the organizational rankings and the Yankees check in at tenth. Even scarier may be the fact that the Toronto Blue Jays are third, giving the Sox a potential third rival within the division. The Yankees have four players in the top 100 including left hander Manny Banuelos and catcher Gary Sanchez. They would have had one more too had they not traded Jesus Montero for fireballer Michael Pineda. The Rays have a whopping six players on the list, including the #3 player, Matt Moore. The Blue Jays have five themselves, including Travis d’Arnaud, a catcher who projects to carry the Blue Jay’s lineup along with Jose Bautista in the years to come.
The scary thing is that the Sox may be falling behind. Ever since Theo Epstein took over as General Manager, organizational depth has always been a strength. That’s not the case anymore. Gone are the times where we can count on the minor leagues to crank out new all stars every year. The Sox have a good stable of single A players, but the top of the system is extremely thin. It came back to haunt them last year and it doesn’t seem out of question to imagine the same thing happening this year.