If you had told me that the Red Sox would hold an 11-11 record on May 1st, I probably wouldn’t have been that upset. They had a tough April, I had been saying it since the day the schedule was released. With series against the Tigers, the Rangers, the Rays, the Yankees, an upstart Toronto team, and the White Sox (U.S. Cellular is always a tough place to play on the road, as is Minnesota), the Sox arguably bolstered one of the worst opening stretches in the majors. Now, if you had told me that before 11-11, they were 4-10, I probably would have had fits. If you told me that I would personally get to watch the team blow a nine run lead to the Yankees, I would have lost it. But above all of that, if you had told me that Mike Aviles would be leading off everyday, tied for the second most homers on the team with five, hitting close to .300, and playing excellent defense, I would have told you that you were absolutely crazy. I would have said there was no possible way, and then I would have frantically asked you why in god’s name a guy with a career OBP of .319 was anywhere close to the leadoff spot. Then you would have told me that Jacoby Ellsbury had a severe shoulder injury and I would have found a comfortable corner to shrivel up in. In summary: it’s good that you didn’t see or talk to me a month ago.
The point is, the Red Sox have not gotten to where they are today in ways that any of us expected. Well, Dustin Pedroia is hitting .301 with a solid .343 OBP and three homers, so that’s not entirely true. But the team has received unexpected performances from perceived role players. Yes, Mike Aviles was named the opening day shortstop, but no one expected this. Now, as we leave the first month of the season behind, the question becomes, can Aviles sustain the level of performance he’s shown so far? Well, that’s what we’re here for. Let’s take a closer look at the man who has made most of us forget that pretty much everyone complained the day that Marco Scutaro was traded. (He’s hitting .259 with a .315 OBP and 5 extra base hits for the Rockies by the way).
Let me start by saying this: Mike Aviles has never been a bad player. In fact, as recently as 2008, he put up a 4.4 WAR season with the Royals. Ever since, he’s been plagued with injuries, and was always in question in a Royals organization that had plenty of young infield talent waiting in the farm. Either way, his performance so far this year has been remarkable. A quick glance at some of the advanced numbers will clue you into the fact that there’s really no reason that he can’t keep most of it up, especially his average. His .292 BABIP is a bit high, but it’s nothing unsustainable. His career BABIP mark is .315, so he’s actually been a little less lucky this year than in seasons past. Not to mention, he’s a contact hitter, so his BABIP is always going to be fairly high, it’s not like he’s sitting at a .350 mark where you’d expect a large drop off. It should stay relatively close to where it is, with the potential to even go a little higher. His K% of 13.6% is right around his career mark of 13.4%, so he’s not getting lucky in that respect either. Even more encouraging is his BB% which is currently at 5.7%, up from his career mark of 4.2%.
Now, if there is anything to doubt about Aviles’ year so far, it’s his power numbers. Before this year, he had never hit more than ten long balls in a year, one month into this season, he’s already at five. A quick glance at his HR/FB rate will tell you that yes, these numbers are going to come down a bit. He’s currently at a 16.7% rate, which compared to a 7.1 career rate is a bit absurd. But, and this is where things get interesting, his FB% is actually down from a career mark of 37.1% to 34.8%. So what gives? Well, a lot of it may have to do with his new home ballpark. With the Green Monster in left field, Fenway Park can be a haven for right-handed hitters, and this may have a lot to do with Aviles’ power surge. Kaufman Field, where he played the rest of his career, is not a homer haven by any means. If I was better at math I would use the Park Factors formula to calculate exactly how much Fenway has affected his swing, but the old naked eye test works sometimes too.
Let’s take a quick look at Aviles’ five homers so far. (1,2,3,4,and 5). Three have come at Fenway, the other two both came at Target field. As far as I can see, only one of them (this one at Minnesota) has been an absolute bomb. The other four have barely cleared the outfield walls. That being said, the one to dead center at Fenway is hit a long way, and would probably have been gone at most parks. So, we’ll give him two absolute homers, the other three being borderline. Again, this an extremely elementary way to do this analysis, and smarter people then me could give absolute certainties in this regard. That being said, at the end of the day, I expect his power to be reduced pretty severely the rest of the way. Yes, Fenway will definitely help, but I don’t see him finishing with more than 15-17 homers (which would still be a career high for him, and absolutely beyond any expectations set for him at the beginning of the season).
As mentioned before, his plate discipline has increased this year. His BB% is up from a career mark of 4.2% to a 5.7% so far this year. A look at some more advanced numbers will tell you that his overall approach at the plate this year has been much better than year’s past. His O-Swing % (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is sitting at 28.9% compared to a career mark of 33.2% meaning he’s just had a better eye this year than in the past. On top of that his Swing % (the overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at) has gone down from a career mark of 51.0% to 46.8% this year. Yes, as a consequence, his contact rate has dropped 4.7% (down from 85.1% to 80.4%), but just because you make contact with a ball doesn’t mean it’s going to be a hit. Often, making contact with a ball outside of the strike zone results in an out, meaning Aviles is just doing a better job at hitting pitches that are indeed “hittable”. Furthermore, he’s excelling at pitch recognition this year. His numbers are up almost across the board in that respect. (up from 16.7% to 18.2% on sliders, up from 4.7% to 5.7% on cutters, and up from 7.6% to 10.1% on curveballs). Essentially, Aviles is doing everything you want him to at the plate: taking more walks, swinging less at bad pitches, and doing a better job at identifying the type of pitch that is being thrown.
Finally, I’d be remiss not to highlight Aviles’ defense this year. For a player that has had a negative FLD the last three years, some of the plays he’s made this year are just incredible. Considering that the consensus at the beginning of Spring seemed to be that Jose Iglesias would be a huge upgrade defensively from Aviles, it’s hard to watch some of these plays and wonder what else the guy could be doing.
So, in summary, Mike Aviles may just be this good. The power numbers should drop, but everything else seems to be pretty
legitimate. What do we have to thank for this performance? Park factors and a better-developed eye at the plate mostly. Remember, the season is still very, very, young. Just ask the Red Sox, who were 4-10 not too long ago. Aviles could come crashing down to earth any day now. He could also soar to new heights. That’s the beauty of baseball, sometimes the last guy you want leading off when spring training breaks (.319 career OBP…no thank you) turns out to be just the magic you need.
