What’s Up with Daniel Bard?

What’s up with Daniel Bard?

Through his first four appearances of the season (three of which were starts), Bard looked pretty solid.  He’d produced a 3.72 ERA with a 19/10 K/BB ratio; the latter of which would have looked better had Bobby Valentine not left him out to rot for four batters too long during his second start.  He was doing a great job maintaining his fastball velocity; his slider was absolutely nasty; and his change-up was more effective than originally advertised.  The fireballing right-hander’s transition from the bullpen to the rotation seemed to be going well.

Through Bard’s first two starts in May, he’s looked dramatically different.  His velocity and command remain solid, but his ability to miss bats has strangely been missing.  Most troubling has been the effectiveness of his slider.  Long been his most devastating weapon, his slider has failed to generate whiffs at a rate consistent with his seasonal or career rates.  As a result, he’s struck out only two batters (against six walks), and he’s posted a 6.57 ERA over his last 12-1/3 innings.

Let’s take a look at a break down of his pitch f/x numbers.

April Starts

May Starts

* Data compliments of Texas Leaguers.  FF – four-seamer, SL – slider, CH – change-up, FT – two-seamer.

A few interesting things pop out at me as I look at the data.  The first being the change in Bard’s slider movement.  During April, his slider had good downward movement, which caused hitters to flail aimlessly at the pitch.  Now that the calendar has flipped from April to May, his slider has become much flater and more hittable.  This explains why hitters are not only swinging more often, but also whiffing less often.  Linear weights supports this theory as his slider saved a spectacular <3.33> runs through April.  In May, it’s being valued at costing 0.34 runs.  While his May rate isn’t bad, it’s a far cry from his April performance.  Certainly, it’s a contributing reason for his recent difficulties.

The second thing that jumps out at me is the drop in the swing and whiff rates with his four-seamer.  Interestingly enough, these declines occured despite maintaining consistent velocity and movement.  While the spin angle and spin rate dropped slightly, I don’t think either dropped enough to justify the changes.  If anything, it seems like hitters may have adjusted to Bard’s repertoire.  Rather than swinging away at his fastball early, and putting themselves in a hole; hitters are holding back, forcing him to throw strikes.  This is especially important to note given the flatness of his slider over his past two starts.  Without the looming danger of a nasty, biting slider at it’s peak form coming later in the plate appearance, hitters have had a chance to be a little more picky.  His change-up, though improved, is average at best, but not considered a threat.

As someone that’s considered to be a two-pitch pitcher, Bard desperately needs his slider to be effective in order to ensure success.  Without it, hitters are able to sit on his fastball, work counts in their favor, and tee off on hanging breaking pitches and an average change-up.  This isn’t a sign he should move back to the bullpen, but rather growing pains.  All young starting pitchers go through this transition.  Bard really should spend time trying to refine his change-up as it would not only neutralize left-handed hitters, but also make him a multi-dimensional pitcher.  Being the fifth starter in Boston is fine for this season, but they’ll be expecting a lot more from him down the road.