In all of the chatter about the Red Sox’s 2008 season, there has been one clear trend: people expect Daisuke Matsuzaka to turn into a solid No. 2 starter, instead of the No. 3 he was last year.In his first year in the majors, Dice-K won 15 games while throwing for 204.2 innings, 201 strikeouts, 191 hits and 80 walks. For the first half of the year, he came as advertised as he went 10-6 in 119.2 IP and a 3.84 ERA. He stumbled the second half, showing a propensity for losing complete control of all of his pitches for an extended period of time and went 5-6, 85 IP, 5.19 ERA. Now, Dice-K will look to maintain his first-half consistency all year long.
Can he do it?
Bill James and CHONE projections are optimistic about what Dice-K can do for us in 2008. James has Matsuzaka at a 3.54 ERA, 30 starts, 193.0 IP. CHONE has him at a 3.94 ERA and 196.0 IP. Marcel is a hater, and says Dice-K will have a 4.33 ERA in 162.0 IP. And everyone’s favorite projection system, PECOTA, has him at 191.0 IP in 30 starts with a 3.90 ERA.
Overall, not bad. Three out of four believe he’ll have an ERA under 4.00 and innings over 190
Obviously, a lot will have to do with how Matsuzaka stays healthy the entire year and how much his body responds to the additional endurance required to complete a full season. With his mind at ease with the familiarity of the team and league and his body having been through the rigors of a full season at the young age of 27, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to adjust.
I believe that the Red Sox are going to be far more judicious in how they use Dice-K — especially since Curt Schilling is slated to return the second half of the year and we will have Julian Tavarez in the bullpen for a backup (and David Pauley in Triple-A).
How would they do this? Perhaps by having him skip a start here and there or going on the disabled list with a minor injury.
Why?
Josh Beckett thinks it’s what helped him in the postseason.
Beckett, who started his throwing program Jan. 3, admits that the playoff run most likely wouldn