Readers of Fire Brand of the American League have been aware of my fandom for manager Terry Francona. Simply put, I feel he’s an excellent manager who could be considered one of the greatest managers in the game today.
That perception of mine has taken a hit since I viewed three metrics used to determine how well a manager strategically performs in games. As is wont with most numbers, this discounts the impact a manager has in a clubhouse amongst other variables, but viewed through the lens of strategy, the numbers that result are quite eye-opening.
Out of 20 managers that managed at least one full season prior to 2007 — 20 managers total — Francona ranks 16th in terms of strategy, ahead of only Joe Torre, Eric Wedge, Jim Leyland and Clint Hurdle. You can view the chart of the managers here, courtesy of the Wall Street Journal.
The three categories are “Close Games, Wins Above Expectation Player Performance.” And those are…
Assessing managers is difficult, since their win-loss records are closely tied to the team’s talent level. Because of that, we used three metrics designed to reveal a manager’s acumen — performance in close games, “Pythagorean” win expectations and whether they got the most out of their players — then averaged each manager’s ranking in those categories for a final score.
For the close-games category, we subtracted each manager’s overall winning percentage from his winning percentage in games tied after the sixth inning, thus determining whether he performs better or worse in close games. The win-expectations chart compares the number of games each manager’s team won versus how many it should’ve won based on how many runs it scored and allowed (also known as the team’s Pythagorean expectation). The third category states how many additional games a manager won or lost for his team per season. David Gassko, a contributor to the Hardball Times Web site, arrived at those figures by comparing how players’ statistics improved or declined under different managers (with adjustments for age and other variables).
The data for the first two categories is for the past five regular seasons and is from Baseball Info Solutions, a firm that provides statistical information. The data for the third category is from all of major-league history through the 2006 season. The 20 managers listed are current major-league skippers who managed a full season before 2007.
Francona ranks ninth in Close Games with a 0.031 record, meaning that for games tied after the sixth inning, he usually comes out on top… this is good, right? I mean, the talent level DOES have something to do with this, as WSJ alludes, but still… take for example Joe Torre who shows an astounding -0.053 for 18th place.
Wins Above Expectation depend on the Pythagorean record, also another viable way of determining a manager’s effectiveness. In this, Joe Torre ranks a fantastic No. 1 with 16 wins above expectation. Francona ranks eighth with two wins over expectation.
Let’s stop here for a second. What would be more indicative of a manager’s effectiveness out of these two categories — Close Games or Wins Above Expectation?
I’m going with close games. If the pitcher of the day stinks it up and we lose 10-2, there’s not much the manager could do, and if he’s the manager of a high-octane offense, the Pythagoren expectation will inevitably show that the team should have won. Managers affect games in the clubhouse, in the lineup card, and when the game matters — and a tie game in the sixth certainly matters.
Last one, player performance. What’s the statistical difference in how a player performs for a manager? Joe Torre ranks dead last, meaning that “Torre” lost 1.82 games for his team. This was measured by “comparing how players’ statistics improved or declined under different managers (with adjustments for age and other variables).” I put quotation marks around Torre because… ultimately, the player is responsible for his play. Who’s to say the market didn’t affect the player, the shock at being traded… there’s way too many variables in here.
“Francona?” He’s just behind Torre, costing the team 19 games. “Bobby Cox” gives the Braves an amazing 2.29 games each year.
Now, let’s turn to the elephant in the room. Let’s look again at who brings up the rear behind Francona in overall ranking: Torre, Wedge, Leyland, Hurdle.
Let me get this straight. In 16th place is someone with two World Series rings in four years, four rings as a Yankee, a manager who brought his team to one out of the World Series last year, , a manager who has rings and turned the Tigers from decrepit to superpower and is the best manager in the game according to Nick Cafardo and basically everyone else and Hurdle, who brought the Rockies to the World Series in the midst of an amazing run.
Other notable managers include Mike Scoscia at 15, Lou Pinella at 12, Tony LaRussa and Bobby Cox both at 9. Those are some pretty heavy hitters who don’t do well in this metric.
So who does? Let’s look at the top five. Leading the pack is Ron Gardenhire, Bruce Bochy, Ned Yost, Charlie Manuel and Bob Melvin. Gardenhire is not considered a great manager, Bochy is by all accounts a fine manager. Yost is on the hot seat, Manuel was on the hot seat for two years before Jimmy Rollins intervened and had a MVP season and Melvin wasn’t even his team’s first choice as manager! (Remember Wally Backman?)
Fine effort by WSJ, but it seems like the order is reversed; Francona is the fifth best manager in the bigs.