Recently, there’s been news that the Manny/Rodriguez/Garciaparra/Ordonez trade might be back up again. Steve from Milford, MA, where my cousins live, says he believed all along that they had the trade be dead so that they could consummate it in privacy. Henry, Lucchino, and Epstein have all been a little paranoid about privacy ever since the Jose Contreras fiasco. (One could argue, however, that it was in fact not a fiasco.) Nevertheless, ever since then, the Red Sox have preferred to be tight-lipped about any and all transactions. This gives the element of surprise, and Red Sox fans now wake up everyday wondering what it is that was pulled off again. No forewarning leads to uncertainty, which leads to excitement.
Nomar Garciaparra, our shortstop for eight years (seven and a half playing-he didn’t play all season in his first shot at the majors and then missed 2001 due to wrist injury) is a fan favorite. Yet, many people are clamoring for him to be traded? Why? Well, let’s take a look at his stats. I’ll give you both his batting average and his OBP and other stats excluding 1996 when he was 22, because he only had 87 at-bats, and 2001, when he had only 83.
AVG/OBP/SLG/RUNS/RBI/SO
.306/.342/.534/122/98/92
.323/.362/.584/111/122/69
.357/.418/.603/103/104/39
.372/.434/.599/104/96/50
–wrist surgery–
.310/.352/.528/101/120/63
.301/.345/.524/120/105/61
As you can clearly notice from the Batting Average line, his batting average has tumbled to the lowest ever in 2003. His “legal age” for 2003 was 29. What kind of baseball player has a lower batting average at 29 than at 23 (.306), 26 (.372)? The prime of baseball players was generally projected to be 28-32. It’s now moved to 27-33. That doesn’t change matters much, however. It still remains that Nomar’s batting average has declined ever since wrist surgery. It also still remains that his on-base-percentage is on a dangerous decline. With the continued troubles of his wrist, and his lack of superior hitting, it seems he has taken more of a penchant for hacking at pitches, trying to make things happen. What happens, instead, is that not only does his average decline, but his OBP declines as a direct result of his hacking – which also results in a rise in strikeouts. He had a low of 39, but is currently around 60. That’s about 20 more outs. 20 more outs over the course of a season and especially in playoffs, means a lot.
His slugging percentage is startingly noticeable. He has lost a dramatic amount of power ever since his surgery. His homers have stayed constant, and his triples greatly have increased. Hits are fairly constant. So what’s the decline in slugging percentage? Doubles. Here’s a quick and dirty line on his doubles in the same timeframe as above: 44, 37, 42, 51, 56, 37. His continued prolific hitting of doubles in 2002 had raised hope he was on the way back up, with his homer total climbing. His homer total did climb from 24 to 28 from the 2002-2003 season (career high of 35), but his doubles took a marked decline. What happens when hits stay constant but doubles go down? It’s the cause of the wrists turning over. Less power, more “slappish” hitting. I don’t know about you, but this season, I saw a lot more slap hitting by Nomar. It didn’t look like slap hitting, but there were a lot more grounders to the outfield.
Fortunately, his runs and RBIs have stayed fairly constant. That can be directly attributable to his place in the lineup (third), however.
So what happens? His wrist is clearly bothering him. It can be assumed that Nomar, a workout fanatic, has successfully rehabilitated his wrists to the best it can be. Which means that his stats are for real – not an aberration. And it also means his stats, with age, will continue to decline.
Without any discussion of statistics, we can all say with certainy that Alex Rodriguez is a better shortstop than Nomar. So the issue’s settled there. As for the clubhouse…well, that’s a tossup. On one hand, you have Nomar, who tries to avoid the media, and is not a outspoken team leader. On the other hand, you have A-Rod, who will speak to the media, and speak up to the team when needed. But Alex is a different breed. Nomar is a Dirt Dog, A-Rod is more of a metrosexual. He will want to be coddled, like Pedro. He will want a leather chair with his own personal tv. In terms of media relations, A-Rod is a clear winner here. In terms of team interaction, it’s pretty much a wash. A-Rod will communicate more with his teammates, help lead the team more. But will the coddling offset that? It can’t be said, because the team loves Nomar. One has to raise an eyebrow, however, at the fact that Millar outspokenly wanted A-Rod over Nomar. Therefore, we will go with A-Rod for the clubhouse. A-Rod is also a great entrepreuner, which John Henry loves. He will market the Red Sox, he will put them on the map. And the Red Sox need a marketer. A-Rod is better than Nomar, period. Plus, Nomar’s declining stats and his love for hitting at Fenway translate into wanting a $17 million a year contract. I’m sorry, but A-Rod is worth his $25 million…but Nomar won’t be at $17.
Coming up soon: Magglio vs. Manny; organizational review of shortstop.