FORT MYERS, FL – FEBRUARY 28: Chris Young #30 of the Boston Red Sox poses for a portrait on February 28, 2016 at JetBlue Park in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
The Red Sox have failed to play the match ups in an efficient manner since long before John Farrell has been manager. That hasn’t changed the fact that not a season goes by Red Sox as a group constantly go against matchup stats with obvious results. From Johnny Gomes and Daniel Nava to Chris Young and Brock Holt they have never been short of platoon options but for some reason refuse to play them the way the numbers say they should on a consistent basis.
This matchup issue was clear on Monday when the team faced the Baltimore Orioles on opening day. Chris Young was brought on to hit for Travis Shaw who for some reason is not being allowed to face left handed hitters even though he has a .963 OPS against them in 86 career PA. Once Young was brought on he was then left in on his second at bat to face the right handed reliever instead of bringing on Pablo Sandoval who was available on the bench.
This episode was not a one time thing for Farrell or the Red Sox and while sometimes it works out (Gomes in 2013 Playoffs) most of the time it looks like Monday when it’s all played out. It’s tough to calculate a wins lost estimate from this but let’s see what we can do with the data.
In his career Young has a wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average) of 48.6 against left handed pitching, but a -38.6 against right handers. That’s a swing of 87 runs in the wrong direction by facing the left handed pitcher. For a direct comparison Sandoval has a 92.9 against lefties and a -5 against righties. A much larger swing of 98 runs, but he’s much closer to league average against his weaker side.
wRAA is a stat that returns wOBA, which a strong statistical indicator. The reason to calculate wRAA from wOBA is to give a more quantitative stat. wOBA is a ration stat like OBP or AVE. Getting a stat that calculates runs scored makes the data easier to work with in this case.
Now I’m well aware that using career numbers might not be a fair assessment with how Sandoval has played in Boston, but for the argument I prefer to use career and this particular choice is fresh in our mind. So wRAA is how many runs total a player has totaled in the plate appearances in question. So if I attempt to calculate Young’s career wRAA/PA against righties he has a -0.01 wRAA/PA and Sandoval is 0.03 wRAA/PA in the same matchup.
So if we compare those numbers the swing in runs is 0.04 runs every time the Red Sox decide to bat Young over Sandoval. Meaning a run is lost for every 25 plate appearances for this decision. In the end Farrell argued he wanted Young’s bat to face Zach Britton in the ninth inning and I believe he might have been right to do so. Now even if the difference is negligible when it comes to a single at bat I don’t think a team should ignore making smart matchup decisions, but it’s larger decisions like starting Brock Holt against righties and not Young in that spot.