Opinion

The Rays Are in First Place and the Red Sox Are a Cautionary Tale

Tampa Bay just left Fenway with a series win and first place in the AL East. The Red Sox are 17-23, last in the division, and statistically on pace for their worst season start since 1997 — a 29-year low that the 2026 version of this roster is apparently proud to threaten. Congrats, I guess.

Tampa Bay Wins the Series, Wins First Place

The Rays took two of three at Fenway: an 8-4 win on May 7, a shutout loss on May 8, then a 4-1 clincher on May 10 after a rainout. Junior Caminero hit two home runs in the series, one of them over the Green Monster, and now has 11 on the season. The Tampa bullpen threw 11.2 innings against Boston and allowed exactly 1 earned run.

The Rays are now 26-13. Five consecutive series wins entering mid-May.

Tampa Bay does not care about your feelings. They don’t care that they play in a stadium that looks like an abandoned convention center. They just keep developing pitchers, identifying value, and winning series in ballparks that cost three times as much to operate. Every time Boston reloads, Tampa recalibrates. This has been the relationship since 2008 and it has not changed.

McClanahan Is a Problem the Red Sox Cannot Solve

Shane McClanahan is back. After Tommy John surgery and a nerve procedure that kept him out from August 2023 until this season — nearly three years — he’s running a 2.60 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 34.2 innings. He’s struck out 34 batters. He went through a rough patch in his first four starts (5.00 ERA) and then just flipped a switch. His last outing: 5.2 innings, 2 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, zero runs.

“It’s a really fun place to work right now,” he said after his May 6 start against Toronto. “I come into the field each day, and I’m like, ‘Man, I’ve got a lot of my friends just hanging out, and we’re gonna go to war for each other.'”

A guy who missed three years comes back and sounds like that. Meanwhile Boston’s best starter is on the IL and described his shoulder problem as “just some fatigue.”

17-23 and Falling: Boston’s Rotation Is Cooked

Garrett Crochet going on the IL on April 29 (retroactive to the 26th) was the clearest signal yet that this rotation has no foundation. He hadn’t even been good before the injury — a 6.30 ERA in six starts, which everyone was willing to explain away as rust or adjustment. Now interim manager Chad Tracy is saying his return is “not imminent” and Crochet hasn’t thrown off a mound. The 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up (18-5, 2.59 ERA) is essentially a ghost.

And it’s not just Crochet. Sonny Gray is out with a hamstring. Johan Oviedo is on the 60-day IL with an elbow issue. Ranger Suarez has a hamstring concern they’re monitoring. Between May 1 and May 5, the Red Sox made five consecutive starts by left-handed pitchers — the first time that had happened since July 2018 — and three of those starters were rookies named Jake Bennett, Connelly Early, and Payton Tolle. Names that, a year ago, you would have bet were characters in a Cormac McCarthy novel.

The rotation ERA is 4.79, 23rd in baseball. At home, the Sox are averaging 2.94 runs per game and are 7-12 at Fenway. FanGraphs has their playoff probability at 29.6%. They rank 27th in runs scored, 28th in OPS and home runs, 29th in slugging.

The Devers Trade, Crochet on the IL, and a Roster With No Safety Net

This is the part where you zoom out. The Devers trade broke this roster structurally — not just emotionally. You stripped the lineup of its anchor, got a return that has yet to produce anything resembling equivalent value, and handed the keys to a rotation that was already held together with medical tape. When Craig Breslow fired Alex Cora and installed a placeholder manager mid-spiral, the players told you everything you needed to know just by their silence.

This isn’t a bad stretch. Bad stretches end. This is an organization that keeps punting — on infrastructure, on depth, on the unglamorous decisions that actually win Aprils and Mays — and then acts surprised when the Rays show up and take first place out of your living room.

The 1997 Red Sox finished 78-84. Keep that number warm.

Related Stories