I am at a loss for words.
If you are a regular listener of the Fireside Chats Podcast that Paul and I host here on MVN, you might find that hard to believe as for one hour every week, it barely seems like I can let my co-host get a word in edgewise.
But here I am at a loss for words.
I like to pride myself on an ability to analyze a situation, diagnose a problem through data, and provide a point of view. Unfortunately, I can’t tell you any tangible reason that the Red Sox have decided that they have an inherit inability to win on the road this season.
Heading into a three game set in Baltimore, the Red Sox are 11-19 on the road this season. They are playing about as well away from Fenway Park as the Boston Celtics are playing away from the Garden, yet there is a very real chance that both are on course towards a championship season.
The only Red Sox team to end a season with a losing record on the road this decade was the 2006 team that ended their campaign 38-43 on the road. That team was also the first to finish behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the standings since 1997.
The 2005 Boston Red Sox were the only team at this end of the month of May to finish with a losing record on the road over that period as well (14-16). The 2004 team was 13-11 and the 2007 team a remarkable 18-8 on the road in the first two months of the season on their way to championships.
Throughout this season, I’ve contended that this Red Sox team is built to win a championship. But looking at these quick stats, maybe I have been overestimating this team.
I mentioned in the podcast last night, heading into what would turn out to be the Red Sox ninth road loss in their last ten road games, that last night’s game was the type that of game that a championship team finds a way to win. Unfortunately, this Red Sox team couldn’t find a way to score a run or mount a rally, even behind an outstanding pitching performance from Tim Wakefield.
It is clear that much of the malaise on the road this season falls on the shoulders of an offense that ranks among the best in baseball in most statistical categories. In fact, they still rank within the top five of many categories on the road; batting average, slugging, hits, home runs. But they also drop out of the top five of some characteristics that make the Red Sox who they are; on base percentage, ops, and most importantly runs scored.
They walk less (112 at home, 91 on the road) and strike out more (209 at home, 140 on the road). It is almost as if their offensive identity as we know it is taken away from them as they are taken away from us.
But lets not rush to lay this all at the feet of the offense. The pitching staff hasn’t fared much better in an opposing park. Many of their peripherals are the same, similar K and BB rates, but their ERA on the road rises from 3.50 at home to 4.61 on the road. Their batting average against from .240 at home to .250 on the road primarily on the heels of a batting average on balls in play that is .028 points higher on the road. Is that just bad luck?
I am at a loss for words.
How does Jacoby Ellsbury bat .202 on the road and .361 at home while J.D. Drew is the polar opposite hitting .226 at home and .322 on the road?
How can individual players, and teams at large, have such variance in home/road performance? I refuse to believe that this is in anyway a referendum on their physical abilities. I can only fall back on this being a mental flaw that is holding them back.
Much like I don’t believe that the Boston Celtics can continue to flounder on the road and take home a championship, as a champion is inherently mentally tough, I am starting to think that this Red Sox team is showing chinks in its mental armor. It doesn’t take much of a hole in that mental armor to be exploited.
The Red Sox have a chance this weekend against a floundering Baltimore Orioles team to make a statement and move that road record three games closer to .500. They have a chance to right the ship and show that they are mentally tough enough to challenge for the ultimate prize this season.
I would be careless to say that anything but a sweep this weekend dooms the Red Sox to failure, but a season is made of measuring sticks. For me, an important measure will be taken on Sunday night and my ruler will be measuring the mental ability of this team to overcome its malaise and put a beatdown on a lower class opponent.
