Just a thought. Jacoby Ellsbury could become the best leadoff batter in basseball, as well as the game’s premier Gold Glove center fielder. It’s true, as Tito says, that he is still working on things in ST, and his great 11-pitch at bat in the last game shows he is developing his plate patience. The leadoff spot is his, but will he be ready for it on opening day, or will he still be finding his groove?
Jed Lowrie, on the other hand, has the hot bat going into the season, with a .469OBP, resuming in ST where he left off before damaging his wrist in 2008. In April, he may be a more reliable set up guy for Pedroia, Papi, Youk.
With Teix a notoriously slow starter, A-Rod, Julio Lugo & Mark Kotsay in rehab, Tito has a narrow window here to maximize the batting order for the first few weeks of the season, to get an early lead. IMO, with such a tight race predicted, there will be little time in the season when experimentation, confidence-building, and not ruffling feathers should take precedence over having the best lineup on the field at the time. One win over the course of this season could decide the division or the wild card.
Assuming he enters the season on a roll, if Jed Lowrie were to lead off in April, with Ellsbury at #9, then Jed’s hot bat would get that extra AB per game, while Ells could finish working things out without the pressure of having to set up Pedroia and Papi, developing plate patience, and building his OBP. The 2nd, 3rd & 4th time around the lineup, Ells would bat in front of Jed, with Ellsbury’s base speed primed and ready for RBI machines Lowrie, Pedroia, Papi, further increasing the chance of Ellsbury scoring off a single.
Eventually, Jed’s bat will cool, Ellsbury’s will heat up. At that point, switch the two. Both ways, Lowrie/Ellsbury/Pedroia represent high on base potential with aggressive baserunning (80-100SB?), and many XBH to set up the 5 or 6 power bats in the lineup.
As of March 23, following are the ST stats of Jed and Ells:
Lowrie. In 44AB. .432/2/10/.469+.818 = 1.288, with 7 doubles, 3 triples, 2HR, 36TB, 4BB, 3K, 0/1SB. 10GO/13AO, 0.85%
Ellsbury. In 38AB. .263/1/4/.282 + .447 = .729. With 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1HR, 17TB, 1BB, 3K, 19GO/6AO, 3.33%.
IMO, after seriously cutting short his learning time in AAA, Tito threw Ells into the deep end last year, and he did extremely well. However he is, as Tito says, still working on stuff. We know what he can become, and want him to get there ASAP. Perhaps some time in the #9 slot in April will be enough for him to have a great season.