By Andrew Lipsett
The Trade Deadline approacheth, and with it come the myriad, often ridiculous trade rumors that get many of us frothing at the mouth (today’s nonsense-du-jour was a brief flurry of Mike Lowell/Jake Peavy trade talk on ESPN). But underneath all the wild speculation is the very real possibility that the Red Sox – along with a number of other clubs – will be making major changes in the next 10 days. So, today, I want to run down a list of the Sox’ most likely trade chips, and throw in a few thoughts about each.
Trot Nixon
Evan wrote on this very topic yesterday, so I won’t spend much time on it. Nixon is a face of the franchise; the only veteran on this club who was drafted and developed by the Red Sox, and the longest-tenured member of the organization (by two years, over Tim Wakefield). Still, he’s coming now to the end of a decent contract. He’s been healthy in 2006, but trails behind his several injury-shortened seasons and a legendarily bad back. His defense has slipped, and his power has followed suit. If the Sox don’t deal him, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they’d re-sign him; if he stays healthy, an arbitration offer likely would be a good bet, but if he comes down with something it would be a risky play. So the Sox have to decide whether to get something for him now, or risk letting him walk for as little as nothing or as much as a 1/1A draft pick or two. Given the strong state of the system, I’d prefer to see what we can get for Nixon now, and work with Wily Mo Pena in RF.
Mike Lowell
Lowell has cooled off since his blistering start (which is his custom), but remains at a high trade value. Once the question of whether he could return to form was answered, he instantly became a valuable commodity, and if the Sox were willing to eat a bit of the salary he could be our most valuable piece. He’s certainly a talented enough player to be included in a major pitching deal, and we have ready-made 3B backup in Youkilis. This may be the Sox thinking as well, as there are many rumors that we’re examining deals for young 1B’s (Ryan Shealy comes to mind). The exceptional infield defense would suffer, but not too much, and the type of arm Lowell could return would be well worth it. The only question is what team – and what pitcher – matches up best.
Mark Loretta
Loretta, another guy who’s poised to vanish at season’s end, has an up-and-coming contender for his position in Dustin Pedroia and an All-Star selection that only enhances his value. He too could be a centerpiece type player, despite most recently being traded straight up for Doug Mirabelli. I doubt this will come to pass, but Pedroia’s recent hot hitting in Pawtucket signals that he’s over his injury and is back to being a solid and close MLB player.
Rudlian Seavarez
There’s always a market for relief, and both Tavarez and Seanez are signed to at least reasonable contracts that could be moved. Tavarez has been pitching somewhat better of late, making him a potential topper in a deal for one of the Sox’ other major chips. Seanez… well, who knows. Jim Hendry paid like 4 million for Scott Eyre, so there’s always hope.
Alex Cora
Much as it pains me to say it, Alex Gonzalez’s recent and newfound understanding of what that wood stick he has to hold every now and then is for makes Cora’s presence as a super-sub less necessary. He’s a fantastic bench presence, and like many I’ve come to have a great deal of respect for his situational abilities and his defense (not too far below Gonzalez’s, from what I’ve seen). But he could be a cheapish MI for a rebuilding club waiting on a prospect, and someone could easily be interested in adding him. With the talk that the Sox are looking to bump up Pedroia, Cora could easily be expendable.
Wily Mo Pena
Though it certainly appears that Pena is on track to be the Sox’ next RF, his defense is shaky enough for the Sox to consider dealing him. His value is probably fairly high, especially among AL, sabermetrically-inclined teams as a DH or LF; he’s cheap, he has a ton of power, and he’s young. The Indians, for example, seem a perfect fit for his services, as do the A’s. If the Sox do deal Pena, David Murphy’s resurgence in AAA would make him the heir-apparent to Nixon, which brings with it its own uncertainty.
Craig Hansen
There’s probably no player on the Sox right now whose value is higher than Hansen’s. Despite some rough spots adjusting to MLB-level competition, he’s still a star closer in the making, and a ton of teams would love to get him now. Giving up on Hansen, though, almost sounds the death knell for Jonathan Papelbon’s chances to make it back to the starting rotation, and would deal a blow to a bullpen that’s just starting to right the ship. Hansen could certainly bring back a lot of help, but is it worth it, at the expense, possibly, of a solid SP?
Jacoby Ellsbury
This would hurt me bad, but with Crisp cost-controlled for years, Ellsbury could be more valuable as a trade chip. He’d be, to be sure, exceptionally valuable: he’s a bona-fide leadoff guy who would appeal to just about anyone with his OBP skills as well as his speed and defense approach. He’s a better fit for a rebuilding club looking to shed a mid-sized contract on a good player, though, and that’s harder to find. I’d prefer we hold onto Ellsbury tight, but there’s no denying that he’s got a metric ton of trade value.
David Murphy
Is now the time to unload Murphy? His inconsistency throughout the minors has driven the Sox nuts, but just before it was time to give up on his ‘former #1’ status, he got the call to AAA and began destroying everything he saw. All of a sudden, Murphy has a .930 OPS in the International League, a very good defensive rep, and looks a lot like a former first pick. A case can be made that a combination of injury, timing, and weather have at various times held his production down, and that only now has he had a chance to shine. That might be true, and he might be a mid-level MLB regular talent. Or, he might be a bust in the middle of an amazing run. Either way, his trade value has never been higher, and the question now becomes whether it will stay where it is or plummet with his production as the spell wears off.
Beyond those names, there are certainly prospects we could trade – Michael Bowden, Clay Buccholz, Pedroia, Edgar Martinez. But few would bring back the kind of return we’d be looking for, and none are throw-ins. The above list represents everyone on this team that I think we could post in a one-for-one deal for MLB talent in return, regardless of the quality.
