Daisuke Matsuzaka continues his rehab on Friday, as he will throw a side session, before moving to the Gulf Coast League on Monday, reports the Red Sox official website. His tentative return date is September 8.
The real question, however, is what version of Daisuke are the Red Sox going to return to the mound? The effective starter from 2008 or the one who has walked 18 this season with 8 home runs in just 35 innings?
Since Daisuke came to the MLB, he has been among the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball. Therefore, it is important to keep in mind who he is and what he is capable of.
Proponents of “Daisuke the Ace” seem to think, since batters hit 0 for 5000 against him with the bases loaded in ’08, that he has some inherent ability to turn it on in the clutch. He can’t. 2008 was one of the luckiest seasons for a starting pitcher in recent memory. Don’t be fooled.
When healthy, Dice is a league average pitcher with good stuff but rampant control problems. He walks a batter every other inning, never makes it to the sixth, and, now, is coming off a shoulder injury that has sapped his velocity and created further pitch location issues.
His saving grace is that he can strike out 8-9 batters per 9 innings, which also happens to be the only thing keeping him in the majors. With this kind of pitcher, a shoulder injury can create huge problems, as we saw earlier this season. Watch his velocity when he comes back and especially watch the command. If he’s missing a lot inside the zone, its going to be ugly.
In the end, however, Daisuke will be a welcome addition to Boston’s stable of starters. With the current state of the rotation, a starter with even a chance to be league average is a big asset, even one as volatile as Daisuke. Don’t write him off, but don’t expect much either. Expect him to post an ERA of around 5 and average just under 6 innings per start the rest of the season.
If healthy, he can slate in as the fifth starter. Though disappointing for what Boston invested in him, there is still value here. He can provide an option to deploy in case Tazawa or Buchholz falters, if Wake gets reinjured, or any other imaginable scenario arises. He’s not a good asset, but he’s still an asset.
