Curt Schilling couldn’t hold a lead last night, as he didn’t get out of the sixth, striking out only two but walking none. The Red Sox were able to eke out a 6-5 win, but the worry over Schilling is not abating.
The numbers don’t lie. Through April 25th, his famed “133-pitch outing,” which ended his streak of at least 104 pitches in every one of his five outings to that date, (117, 114, 104, 108, 133) he had been dominant. That 133-pitch outing was the end of that dominance. After that outing, where he went 6.2 IP giving up 5 ER and saw his ERA rise from 1.61 to 2.60, his Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9) had been 8.05, his BB/9 was 1.56. His HR/9 was 0.78, his BB/K was at 5.17 (6 BB, 31 K). In his 34.2 IP, he was sc(hill)intillating! This was the real Curt Schilling.
His next four starts were 98, 106, 100, and 116 IP apiece. Through last night’s game, his ERA was 6.46 in these starts, 7.99 K/9, 1.14 BB/9. His HR/9 jumped to 2.66, his K/BB at 7.00 (3 BB, 21 K). In his 23.2 IP, he was terrible. It’s quite obvious in these numbers that he still has his control, but batters are hitting harder off him. This is the real Curt Schilling.
Look how similar 2004 and 2006 are – they’re getting close. Look at his career compared to 2006! This isn’t a case of 133 pitches. The dominating Schilling we saw IS the real Schilling, but so is the one we’re seeing now. This is simply the law of averages playing things out. He’s no spring chicken, either. You can’t expect him to keep up that amazing dominance, much like Mike Mussina’s number is going to be called by the God of Averages soon.
So in the end, don’t worry. the overall numbers are not sobering. I’m not expecting him to keep up this run of inepitude, but I certainly did not expect him to keep up the run of dominance, either. Sometimes a look at the big, cumulative numbers is really what needs to be done instead of breaking each tiny little out into it’s own universe.
