There are many components on a successful baseball team. A 50 HR, 130 RBI threat in the middle of your order is a luxury. Having an ace leading the pitching staff with the potential to win 20 games is marvelous. Having a skipper that understands the concept of managing a bullpen and a general manager that spends wisely is also rewarding. But nothing, and I mean, NOTHING, in my opinion, it more satisfying than knowing the game is in tact with a lead in the ninth inning. Reliable closers make or break winning baseball teams (just as the 93 Phillies or 97 Indians), and folks, us Red Sox fans have seen one blossom right before our eyes.
Of course, the rumble around town is that Papelbon will move back to his rightful starting pitching role next season. While a closer in college, Papelbon worked as a starter in the minor leagues in 2005 before making his ML debut and pitching formidably in a start against Minnesota. From the first pitch of Jonathan?s big league career, the potential for stardom was evident. When he was moved to the bullpen, Papelbon appeared to finally find a home. Yet, the thought of Jonathan starting for the Red Sox for years and years to follow looked like the ultimate goal. Recently, I saw this quote in Boston Herald:
”I could never start a game again in my life,” Papelbon told the Herald, ”and I’d be happy.”
So, why make him unhappy? You know the old saying: Don?t fix something that?s not broken. And Papelbon?s reign in the closers role is anything but flimsy. His numbers this season are staggering: 15 saves in 15 opportunities, 0.40 ERA, .373 Opponent-OPS, 13.9 pitches per inning, 6.33 K/BB ratio, 11 hits in 21.2 innings and a 0.63 WHIP. Adding to this resume is his age, 25 years old, which means Papelbon could be donning a Red Sox uniform for the long future. And that?s a great, great thing.
Still, I?m hoping, praying, wishing, pleading that Terry Francona and his entire staff keep Papelbon as the closer in 2007. Frankly, I hope he?s running out of that right field bullpen in the ninth inning until 2016. The rotation can be substituted with middle to high priced free agents from some of the money we saved by not paying Pedro or Damon, but outstanding closers are remarkably rare. Agents are aware of this trend. Just look at the contract B.J. Ryan received this offseason for evidence. Knowing this lively young arm is ending games for the next ten years is a luxury not many other teams have.
Some people opposed to the idea of leaving Papelbon as closer do have a decent argument, especially pointing out that Papelbon?s arm is too precious and rare to waste on 13 pitches per game, entering maybe once or twice per series. But understand this: Josh Beckett was signed this off-season to play that exact role at the same stage in his career. Also, Jon Lester is making his way up the ranks with great outings after a slow start, as I learned from one of Firebrand’s fan Peter N?s blog (www.peteronall.blogspot.com) Lester went 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in his first four starts, recently he is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.31 in his last four. Encouraging for the future of our rotation, to say the least.
It also feels good to compare Papelbon to Mariano Rivera, which I don?t think is an overstatement at all. Rivera?s first year as Yankee closer was 1997: 72.2 IP, 65 H, 68 K/20 BB, 43 SV, 1.88 ERA. Papelbon is set to post even better numbers than Rivera in his rookie year. Why mess with that?
When I watch Papelbon pitch, I see the makeup of a closer. His poise, concentration, deadly head-turn and stare to Varitek for the signs, slow delivery and slick fastball, the keen ability to throw the hammer down on the opposing team without getting into trouble- his actions on the mound and the way he carries himself resembles a closer to me. More importantly, who would replace him? In 2007, if Francona becomes carried away and moves Papelbon into the rotation, that decision may just end up costing the Red Sox many close games.
