While Tim Wakefield continues to stand for a spot in the starting rotation as he continues to try for the wins record as a Red Sox pitcher. At this date the Red Sox are ready to give the five starter spots to Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That leaves Wakefield asking for a job that doesn’t exist right now. It’s always possible that an injury or other change opens a spot, but I want to suggest why Wakefield might be better served as a reliever.
Since 1993 Wakefield has made 62 appearances as a reliever with an ERA of 3.75 in that role. While that sample size is fairly small there is plenty to see that is encouraging. The most obvious change is a spike in strikeouts, which occurs when most pitchers change from starter to reliever. His K/9 in the starter role has been 5.9, but in the reliever role he holds a 7.9.
The benefits of a knuckle ball pitcher are a drop in BABIP, which he has a consistent rate of .275 as a starter and a reliever. This benefit will be beneficial as his K/BB was a poor 1.76 as a starter and a slightly above average 2.16 as a reliever. This helps him beat his FIP in both roles.
The question now is is he more valuable as a reliever? For the past few years his WAR numbers have totaled 2.7, 2.0 and 1.9. That type of numbers will be tough to total as a reliever, but not a huge stretch for someone in a long relief and spot starter role. Assuming 70 or more innings he would total approximately 1 WAR if his skills maintain a 3.75 FIP.
That might be a small step back in value, but with his health and age it’s probably close enough and a safer option. This might not be the most appealing option to Wakefield, but for the Red Sox it has to be the most reasonable option.
If he does spend 2010 in the bullpen and returns on his option in 2011 it might be interesting to wonder if he can total the 18 wins to become the all time wins leader as a Red Sox pitcher. In just a reliever role it is probably a long shot, but with enough spot starts and in long relief it’s a possibility.
Then again with Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka in the rotation it’s possible he could easily top 120 IP. I’m sure Wakefield has this in mind and should see enough time in the starter role.
The only question left is can his back take another two years including enough starts to hold the rotation and bullpen together? It’s definitely not the biggest question the Red Sox face in 2010, but it’s one of the questions many teams would love to have. They have the prosperous choice to send a pitcher projected for 12 runs above average by CHONE to the bullpen. Then to bring him back to the rotation when they need it.