I still have trouble listening when people talk about how adding a bat would make a huge difference on this team. Perhaps they are referring to the failed attempt to keep Jason Bay or perhaps they would like a trade for an all star hitter like Adrian Gonzalez. Well besides all the troubles in dealing with a team leading the NL West right now. Beyond all that you have to ask how much difference would any of these players have made so far?
So far the offense has scored 178 runs before Wednesday’s game. That total puts them in fourth only four runs behind the Yankees and seven behind the leading Rays. For a team apparently struggling to put up runs they sure have totaled an impressive amount missing quite a few games from their lead off hitter and center fielder.
Power has not been a problem either with 44 homers they rank third behind only the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. All this without a 40 home run type hitter in the middle of the lineup. Could they have totaled better numbers with one? Perhaps. I’ll ignore a Bay discussion since he is having trouble in Citi Field, but let’s use Gonzalez as a basis.
If The Red Sox had made a trade this offseason and added Gonzalez instead of adding Adrian Beltre at third base. Ignoring the defensive change we can look at the park adjusted runs created and see Gonzalez has totaled an impressive 6.5 so far, while Beltre has had good hitting with limited power. That gives him a 1.4 when adjusted and that makes the difference 5.1 runs so far this season.
That number is not a little thing and at this pace Gonzalez would be a big boost for the rest of the season, but five runs would only add 0.5 wins and put them 1 run scored ahead of the Yankees. That isn’t much of a change and doesn’t suddenly erase the poor start from the team this year.
Even without Jacoby Ellsbury or Mike Cameron the offense has kept up with the best in the league. Once these guys come back they should maintain these numbers and do even better. If they can form a plan for DH we could even see them push to the front of the offense rankings. If the offense is so good though then why the tough start?
The defense has struggled a bit without our starting outfielders, but still ranks ninth overall using UZR/150. So if defense and offense aren’t the problem that leaves only one thing. The pitching has been the major factor so far and specifically the bullpen. The team ERA is at 4.95 and only slightly under-performing with an xFIP of 4.43.
If the team wants to find a way to get better quick they need to find what has cause the starters to struggle and find another quality arm for the bullpen. Only Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Hideki Okajima should be seeing the high leverage spots right now and the rest should be left for blow outs.