How About That Papelbon?
For two seasons now, the Sox have agonized in their decision whether to pop the engagement question or consult a lawyer about divorce arrangements concerning Jon Papelbon.
Given his struggles thus far this season, their deliberations have only grown more urgent as to whether or not they should cut ties with their closer.
Either way, whatever the powers that be may decide, fans should not lament what they are getting from Papelbon in the ninth inning.
Papelbon’s still throwing gas. Batters are still whiffing (just not on strike two). He still has good command of his pitches (though not on ball three).
While the woes of the team as a whole are more than enough to cause even the most ardent fan’s head to spin, it would be wise to view Pap’s 2010 with a bit of perspective.
Yes, he’s walking over four batters per nine (4.42 BB/9) and striking out fewer than seven (6.87 K/9) — both near or at career lows. Yes, his current .193 BABIP is bound for regression.
His numbers beg the question, “should we be worried?”
No. Citing the words of a talent evaluator I recently spoke with, “it’s early.” He couldn’t have been more right.
No doubt, when a player’s performance has been problematic and has “lingered” for over a month and a half, it’s easy to forget that relievers don’t pitch everyday — that, in mid-May, they can have a total of just 18.1 innings to their record.
Putting this in perspective, that’s the equivalent of Jon Lester having three underwhelming, but serviceable starts in a row… Tim Lincecum having a few extra batters make contact on strike two than usual or throwing ball three a few inches off the plate just a couple more times than he is used to.
If Papelbon were to play up to his career numbers, he would have six more strikeouts and four fewer walks.
In short, that’s the equivalent of not gripping the splitter correctly on a few pitches or missing a couple release points. These things happen. It’s not a big deal.
This is further supported by the rest of Papelbon’s numbers.
Short of knowing the exact conversation Pap is having with the club’s athletic trainer, there don’t seem to be any red flags.
His velocity is down only slighty from last season — 0.6 mph to be exact — a number that is very common in season to season variance and not a concern.
His first strike percentage is at a career high (69.4 percent) — another great sign. Tired arms don’t throw strikes at that frequency. And, though his zone percentage is down about four percent from his career norm of 53.8, why not throw out of the zone when batters are offering on would-be-balls at a 34.9 percent clip?
Patience can be very hard to exercise when the team is losing — especially patience for the guy whose responsibility it is to close out those close, heart-wrenching games.
It’s difficult to say at this point exactly what ails Papelbon. If it’s an injury or fatigue (which seems unlikely at this stage), then a timetable for Pap to become “Pap” again is anyone’s guess. If it’s poor luck on batter’s contact rates or a simple adjustment with setting up hitters, the change will be right around the corner.
In fact, Papelbon has walked just one batter in his last nine innings dating back to April 24, punching out nine.
18.1 innings. That’s all. Just be patient.
Can — or Should — Darnell Fit in Boston?
“It’s getting to be about that time of the night again.”
Closing time, twelve o’clock midnight, whatever you want to call it.
Either way, Darnell McDonald will be hitting the pine soon — whether that be in Boston, Pawtucket, or some other distant city.
With Mike Cameron due to return any day now and Jacoby Ellsbury right around the corner, it seems that the outfield will be too crowded for McDonald — forcing an inevitable benching, demotion, or trade.
A trade, though speculated in the media until just recently, seems to be out of the question at this point given McDonald’s troubles at the plate.
McDonald deserves all the credit in the world for holding the lineup together since his call up nearly one month ago — batting .308/.438/.615 in April.
Everything changed with the calendar flip to May, however, and may have all but killed Darnell’s trade value. While in April he was beginning to look like the rare career minor leaguer who defied the odds and fell through the cracks, his .204/.220/.306 line in May ended whatever good will he had with potential suitors.
Whether the advanced scouts found the holes in his swing or he had had a well timed hot streak, the “who is this guy” questions had been thoroughly answered with “that’s right, career minor leaguer” responses.
It being extremely unlikely that the Sox would be able to get any type of haul for Darnell, a trade seems out of the picture…
…leaving the question unresolved as to whether he should be reassigned to Pawtucket or benched in Boston.
As for his prospects in the Majors, McDonald seems to be squeezed out by his lack of positional versatility and the fielding acumen of his main competition, Bill Hall.
As the team will likely continue to carry only four true outfielders, McDonald would have to be adequate at an infield position – preferably middle infield – to fit the constructs of the roster.
As the team carries three corner infielders (Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell; Hall as the emergency fourth option at third base) and three middle infielders (Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia, Bill Hall), Hall has the battle of the infield locked up.
As the team has no true fifth outfielder due to the DH slot, Hall fills in there, too, making him an important role player who spells banged up and tired starters all over the diamond. Though he is, almost always, a poor excuse for a Major Leaguer, the team would be hard pressed to fit McDonald on the roster while still providing adequate rest for its infield — especially at short and second.
The only potential solution that could exist would be for the team to find an 11th hour trade partner for Mike Lowell, allowing Hall to become Beltre’s primary backup at third. McDonald could take over for Lowell’s DH platoon duties, having hit lefties very well this season (.370/.414/.778, 3 HR, 4 K, 2BB in 27 AB).
However, this would make for a serious strain on the depth of the entire infield. Though Hall could, presumably, be freed up to cover the middle infield on many nights – with Victor Martinez taking first and Youk sliding over to third – it would require Jason Varitek to be in the lineup more often than the club would like, tiring out the vet’s legs and wearing him out for the stretch run.
In short, it’s a lot of trouble to keep one player on the roster — especially one whose practical use to the team would be severely challenged by that point.
Barring anything unforeseen, it seems as if Darnell McDonald’s days are numbered in Boston. He could still hold value for the team, especially as a cheap, right-handed platoon mate.
But it’s not in the cards.
It will be tough to see him go. An easy player to root for, he gave the team his all when they needed him most, and could be a valuable asset to many teams in the ‘09 Gabe Kapler 4th OF/lefty-platoon mold.
However, with the current construction of the roster and lack of infield depth, it seems that a prolonged stay in Boston is not in Darnell’s future.
Thanks a million Darnell! It was fun while it lasted.