Papelbon has gone from an elite closer to what appears to be a replacement level reliever in just a matter of a few seasons. This year his numbers have fallen off a cliff as his K/9 was always his best skill and even though his walks were going up he could still maintain strong numbers. This year though his K/9 has dropped all the way to 7.67.
That’s not going to get it done when your walking more than 3 batters every nine innings. Looking at his xFIP of 4.74 you can see he has actually been lucky so far this year. There aren’t many signs for what is wrong though. His arm speed is as good as it has ever been and while his slider is a bit slower it has been his best pitch according to run values.
His location is also on according to strike percentages compared to 2009, but it looks like more balls are being put in play. His fastball has been put into play about the same amount as 2009 around 15 percent, but his slider has gone from 15 percent to 31 percent. His splitter has also seen a large rise in balls put into play.
Could this just be a small sample size artifact? 31.2 IP is no where near enough batters faced to trust numbers like K/9 and BB/9 as well as his K/BB, so some amount of caution should be used. With such similar numbers in his movement, speed and location I feel confident that by the seasons end his numbers should be better. I can’t say they will be anything near what we have been used to, but he will be better than what he has been so far.
On the other hand Daniel Bard has become the pitcher we had hoped and while there is no rush to push him to closer yet you can see why he has been groomed for the role. His strikeouts are down a bit from last year, but with some better control he has lowered his walks and been very affective.
If Papelbon cannot improve the number though the Red Sox enter 2011 with some big questions. Will they be willing to move Papelbon out of the closer role when he is sure to make big money in his final year of arbitration? Would any team be willing to take him in trade after a down season without the Red Sox having to cover most of what is sure to be a big contract?
Hopefully Papelbon’s numbers do revert to what we have seen before and these questions are left unasked, but I’m sure they are things Theo is already mulling as we speak.