With Sunday night’s loss, the Sox find themselves in the unenviable position of trailing the Rays by 6.5 games. Having failed to accomplish their goal of, at the very least, winning the series – and putting themselves in better position to draw even with a sweep in September — the team instead dropped two of three, all but dashing their hopes of catching Tampa.
While their three-game set at Fenway on September 6 certainly provides a glimmer of hope for catching their Florida rivals, the club may be better served by focusing their attention on the Yankees.
Lost in all the hullabaloo of chasing the Rays these past few months is New York’s growing vulnerability. With Tampa and New York even in both the Wild Card and AL East races, the Sox’ best chance at October baseball has now become the Yanks.
With six games remaining against New York — versus just three against Tampa – perhaps the Sox’ only real hope is taking at least five of those contests. Should Boston find a way to pull out a 2-1 series win at New York on the 24th-26th, the Sox would have to be just 2.5 games better than the Yanks over their other 25 remaining games to put them within 3.0 of the Bombers entering the season’s final showdown beginning October 1. Closing out the season with a three-game homestand versus the Yankees, they would at least have control over their own destiny — albeit it a long shot.
Moral of the story?
It ain’t over until the fat lady sings.
Injuries, numbers, and a 6.5 game deficit be damned.
If the Sox can narrow the gap by just 2.5 games over those 25 matches (closing to within 4.0 of the Yankees), they will effectively have control over their postseason fate.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t give the home town team much wiggle room. Even if New York is to go 13-12 (playing 26 games, having one in hand over the remainder of the season), the Sox must go 15-9. If the Pinstripes go 14-11, Boston must be 16-8.
You get the picture.
Not an easy road by any means, but certainly doable.
Sox Claim Mike Napoli
On Sunday, the Red Sox were awarded a waiver claim to Anaheim Angels’ catcher Mike Napoli — ostensibly beating out the Rays for priority.
Currently in his fifth season with the California Angels, Napoli established himself as one of the MLB’s best power-hitting catchers. With 87 home runs in 1466 career at-bats, Napoli has continued his all-or-nothing ways in 2010, mashing 21 homers in 370 at-bats, to go along with 108 strikeouts.
At the moment, many believe that a deal with Sox-Angels deal is unlikely – Ken Rosenthal citing that Anaheim could receive a greater bounty for their backstop by waiting until the winter. Trading Napoli in the offseason would allow the Angels to negotiate with multiple teams — instead of just the Red Sox, who currently own exclusive trading rights.
Nonetheless, Napoli would represent an excellent fit for Boston, who could give the club’s lineup added punch for a late post-season push while shoring up the position for the future. Napoli’s presence in the lineup and defensive versatility (also has experience at first base) would allow the team to shuttle Victor Martinez and Napoli fulltime between first base and catcher — removing Kevin Cash’s weak bat from the lineup and shifting Mike Lowell to a reserve role.
In addition, Napoli is still arbitration eligible, allowing the club to answer their catching question for 2011 and beyond. His abilities make him asset to any lineup, whether or not he comes with frustrating strikeout tendencies.
Those abilities include exceptional power and an OPS that is consistently north of .800 – and occasionally far above that.
If there is any question about Napoli’s value going forward, however, it has been his diminishing walk rates, which have declined to a career-low 7.0 percent in ’10 (9.3 percent, 2009; 12.8 percent, 2008) and have dragged his OBP down to a measly .317 – another career-low.
At the root of this decline is Napoli’s growing tendency to chase pitches out of the zone. Though most of his significant plate discipline indicators have been remarkably consistent over the last three seasons, his O-Swing percentage has peaked at 27.7 this year — up 4.5 percent from ’09 (23.2 O-Swing) and 5.5 percent from ’08 (22.2 O-Swing).
Intuitively, more swings outside the zones means fewer balls; and fewer balls means fewer walks. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Napoli is walking at a considerably lower clip. Without having watched much of Napoli over the course of 2009 and 2010, it is difficult to say what has caused this regression. However, it is worth noting that pitchers have begun throwing the catcher considerably more changeups this season than in years past (2008, 7.5 percent; 2009, 8.7 percent; 2010, 11.3 percent).
If pitchers have clued in to a presumed deficiency in his ability to recognize changeups versus fastballs, he could be chasing these pitches before they break off the plate — causing the increase in O-Swing.
If he is to rebound from this down year, Napoli will have to cut back on his swings outside the zone. However, pitch recognition (if that is the problem) and adjusting to pitcher’s new approaches, is no easy task and the days of Napoli with plus OBP skills may be over. Nevertheless, .800 OPS catchers are very difficult to find, and his powerful approach makes him an asset regardless of his OBP.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem as if a deal is terribly likely — but the Sox have until the end of the day to find a fit for themselves and Anaheim.