Author: dan rowinski

How will you choose to remember Manny?

May 31, 2010; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez (99) before the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Photo via Newscom
On Friday, Manuel Aristides (Onelcida) Ramirez returns to Fenway Park for the first time since July 31, 2008.

How do you feel about this?

Red Sox fans are an emotional group with long memories. 2008 was not all that long ago. Nomar Garciaparra received a standing ovation when he came back to Fenway as a member of the Oakland A's, but that was five years removed and a precipitous decline in production later. Also, for the most part, Garciaparra did not do as much to anger the Sox fan base before he was shipped out of town as Ramirez would do four years later. Also, Nomar's trade brought valuable pieces to a team that eventually won the World Series for the first time in 86 years.

Bullpen positives and negatives

Look on the bright side. When it comes to the Sox best relief pitchers, all are home grown.

Yet, outside of Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Manny Delcarmen there has not been a lot to like about the Sox bullpen this year. You probably had the feeling, as I did, heading into the season that the relief corps would be somewhat of a problem when the big decision heading out of Fort Myers was whether to carry Scott Schoeneweis or Scott Atchison.

Into the second week of June, the Sox bullpen has an ERA of 4.24. Compare that to the strong relief that a team like the Padres are getting (2.70 ERA) or or the Rays (3.23) and you see just how far off the pace Boston has fallen in an area that presumably was a strength coming into the season and was a relative strength last year (3.80 ERA).

The intangible benefit of Pedroia

The Sox lineup, as always, is a meat grinder. They have four players in the top 20 in the American League in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA) and Pedroia ranks seventh at 4.27 (behind Youkilis who is fourth at 4.36) through 217 plate appearances (Victor Martinez is 11th at 4.12, J.D. Drew 13th at 4.11 while Marco Scutaro is 33rd at 3.92). Pedroia is also second in the league in total plate appearances at 217, behind only Denard Span of the Twins at 218, and leads the league in total pitches seen. Factoring in the entire majors, Youkilis ranks ninth and Pedroia 19th in P/PA.

Sitting in the No. 2 hole in the Sox lineup, Pedroia pesky plate appearances have a ripple down effect. Take for instance last Thursday when Boston beat Minnesota 6-2 on the strength of Jon Lester's nine-strikeout complete game. Pedroia was 0-3 with a walk and a run against the Twins and Francisco Liriano and was instrumental in knocking Minnesota's wily lefty out of the game after 4.2 innings with five earned runs on five hits and three walks. Pedroia was in the midst of a 4 for 39 slump at the time that spanned from May 12 to 23 before putting up three hits against the Rays on Monday.

Can Ortiz hit the inside fastball?

I was in the Sox clubhouse on Thursday with WEEI.com and one thing stuck out at me -- Clay Buchholz playing Plants vs. Zombies on the leather couch on his iPad. Having played Plants vs. Zombies for hours on my friend's magical device, I can understand the addiction.

Thursday was also the day that David Ortiz railed against the media, Buster Olney of ESPN in particular, for criticizing him after his horrendous start to the year. I was not around for that particular encounter but the fallout has been pretty interesting.

Sox historically a step behind, but only a step

Mired on the Bruins beat as I was for the last half of the season, I could not help but start to think about some correlations between what I saw from the spoked B’s in January through March to what we have seen come out of the Fens in the first month-and-a-half of the Major League Baseball season.Two teams, beloved by the people, incredibly inconsistent and frustrating. Both came into their years with high expectations (run prevention and projection adding “another eight to nine wins” is simply not going to happen), both have trouble scoring at times and are dealing with low return on investment and injury.

The historic collapse of the Bruins notwithstanding, both teams are probably better than they have looked. Yes, the Flyers just ripped the heart out of the Hub, but the Black and Gold did deliver a second consecutive conference semifinals appearance to Causeway Street and that was not entirely a fluke.

So, I got to thinking about recent Sox history. I thought to myself: ‘haven’t we seen some frustrating starts in recent years only to come back and win 95 games?” Then I went to the numbers. Here are the May 15th runs scored, allowed and projected win-loss since 2004.

That is $39.5 million in wasted talent

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
After John Lackey's $18.7 million contract, the next three highest paid Sox are J.D. Drew ($14 million), David Ortiz ($13 million) and Mike Lowell ($12.5 million). So far those three hitters have a combined (through Friday) for 22 hits in 121 at-bats with 16 walks and two home runs. That comes out to a baseline average of .181 and a .262 on-base percentage.

On the advanced side of the Hall of Metrics they are averaging a weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+) of 65.666 which is actually a little misleading because Lowell actually has a very decent wRC+ number of 121, albeit in only 20 official at bats this year. The average wRC+ between Ortiz and Drew is 38 (44 for Ortiz, 32 for Drew). Conversely, runs are hard to create when you are not getting on base and the mean between the three players weighted on-base average is .281 again with Lowell skewing the numbers with a .361 wOBA while Ortiz and Drew are at .251 and .233, respectively.

Money in the margins

MLB: Red Sox vs Royals APR 11
What is the first thing a server asks you when sit down at a table? “What can I get you to drink?” Why is the desert menu usually separate from the rest of the menu? Because flour, sugar, syrup and water are cheap and not labor intensive. The profit on that steak may be 40 to 50 percent after labor is included in its preparation but the soda you have been chugging down in the mean time nets a 98 percent gain.

Where Theo Epstein truly makes his money is with the players on the margins, the soda and German chocolate cakes players who propel an 81 win team to a 96 win team.