In honor of the Super Bo.. um, Big Game today (please don't sue me, Roger Goodell!), Firebrand is going Vegas today and presenting some prop bets for the upcoming season. Which ones would you be laying money on or avoiding? 10-1: Tim Wakefield opens the season in the starting rotation. Wakefield made his feeling about deserving a spot in the rotation known recently, feeling he's paid his dues over the past decade.
The Chicago Tribune caught up with Carlton Fisk this week amid the new steroid drama circling Mark McGwire. Our old fireplug catcher responded as we would have expected, lambasting McGwire and the other confessers who continue to try and downplay the effects steroids had on them. Like most people, I think I'm slowly getting more sick of steroids as each new poster-boy for "not talking about the past" comes forward. Between the fake tears, the finger pointing, and uncanny ability to forget the English language, the fans of baseball have been treated to a fiasco much like dirty politics. Baseball "saviors" come up dirty, and players continue to abuse the system without any remorse or regret.
With arbitration cases kicking in, payroll comes to the forefront of team concerns this week. While the Red Sox only have 4 arbitration cases left to settle, we can start to look at the overall payroll concerns going into 2010 and beyond. 2010 is supposed to be our "bridge" year, but is 2011 really when the Red Sox completely reload? Cot's Baseball Contracts lists the Red Sox payroll commitments, and a handy spreadsheet breakdown for the next 4 years as well. Evan's article yesterday laid out some basic figures for the four arbitration eligible Red Sox. While his figures for Delcarman, Ramirez, and Hermida seem solid ($1M, $1.5M, $3M) I have more reservations about Papelbon, considering the "favor" he wants to achieve for his fellow closers, and think his case will invariably go all the way into arbitration, where he'll get close to $9M. I have a feeling he'll ask for at least $10M, especially after he thinks he should be getting Mariano Rivera-liek deals in free agency. Currently, the Red Sox payroll stands at $149M, taking into account all new contracts, leftover payments for former players (like Lugo) any options exercise upon contract termination (Wagner, Alex Gonzales) and monies received form other teams (via Seattle for Bill Hall).
Theo Epstein revisited his "bridge" comment a few months back to the Herald on Saturday. After the myriad of conversations we've had here recently, I felt the timing of his bridge wrap-up after the past few (excellent) signings was quite poignant.
“What I meant was, we’ve been a good team,” Epstein said yesterday after the press conference to announce the signing of third baseman Adrian Beltre. “We’ve been to the playoffs six out of seven years, we’ve won 95 games six out of seven years, and I know we’re going to be good when projecting into the future. The building blocks are in place to have a really strong foundation going forward starting in a couple of years.”
Someone pinch me... feels like I'm dreaming. Peter Gammons reports the Red Sox have inked Beltre to a one-year deal worth $9 million, with a player option for an additional $5 million.
Daniel Bard burst onto the scene this year after weathering concerns of a worrisome first professional season in 2007. Bard struggled in his role as a starter after arriving from the University of North Carolina, both at Single A and High A levels. His poor performance was punctuated by damaging walk rates that year, totaling a lofty 9.02 BB/9 in 75 innings. Carrying the burden of a bust label, the front office quickly reevaluated Bard's skill set and moved him to the bullpen in 2008. He hasn't looked back since.
[UPDATE, 3:20pm]: Joel Sherman says 4 years, $66 million, with a vesting option for a fifth year; naturally, this is all pending a physical. [ORIGINAL, 3pm] Jon Heyman confirms the original WFAN report via Twitter
After Troy's article on Ellsbury's impending shift to left field, some feedback from our readers had some questions about some of the reasons for Ellsbury's decline in defense this year. Peter Gammons brought up a small story about how Rickey Henderson felt his basestealing affected his performance in centerfield.. yet no where else. Since it's the holiday season, I figured why not answer one of our commentor's question: Is their any data showing that excellent base stealers predictably decline defensively? Now, collecting this data is not the easiest study I've tried. Defensive statistics and qualification per position can sometimes be tough to obtain. Outfielders tend to shift positions more frequently, even over a small sample of years. Defense analysis is something I intend to look into more this year, but to start, here's a simple look at the past two years of "primary" centerfielders.
Reader Bill in FLA asked about a few pitcher profiles we could run in Pitch FX, and the first player I thought would be an excellent example of Pitch FX's capabilities and limitations is Hideki Okajima. Part of the limitations of Pitch FX, is that until the technology has a way to verify the exact pitch the pitcher intended to throw, the classification is an approximation of the overall speed, movement, and release points the pitches have. This is also why some pitchers have their pitches classified incorrectly, or in Oki's case, a severe change in classification that was most likely caused by a change in one of those above factors.
In 2007, pitching analysis was changed forever with the addition of the Pitch FX system. While the technology in 2007 was not as widely available throughout all ballparks as it is today, it has helped the average fan be able to take a critical eye to pitches. Have you ever wondered how much vertical break Barry Zito's curveball had? How about the angle Randy Johnson's slider took as it swept across the plate? What about how our own Jonathan Papelbon throws his fastballs? Now you have the power.
