Matsui in Red, Varitek’s ‘C’

Hideki Matsui as a Red Sock? (Left: While not the best "action shot" out there on Matsui, it would offend our sense of decency to have pictures of Yankees high-fiving or trotting around the bases on our site. Therefore, we felt a picture of Matsui being brushed back by a fastball was much more appropriate.) Yesterday, the Red Sox official website announced a rumor linking the team to Hideki Matsui. According to sources at nikkansports.com (don’t even bother with the link, unless you can read Japanese), the Japanese website expects the Red Sox to tender Matsui a contract at some point this offseason. Though Matsui proved this season that he is still a force at the plate, the real question is whether or not he can effectively man left field.

Quick Musings on the Latest Sox Rumors

Billy Wagner According to MLB Trade Rumors, Billy Wagner is considering accepting an arbitration deal from the BoSox because he "loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that's it's now a possibility." That is an MLB Trade Rumors quote, not Wagner directly from Wagner's mouth. However, it's hard not to be skeptical of his sudden change of heart, as no one could love a city enough from four short weeks to make a complete 180 in their opinion of the team and their place within it... Varitek's Player Option Due at Midnight ***UPDATE: Varitek has officially picked up his $3 million player option. As we continue to follow the Jason Varitek story, his contract is undergoing more flip-flopping than a Brett Favre retirement or Florida in the 2000 presidential election. Is he or isn't he? We'll find out before the end of the day, though the verdict is still out as to whether it would be better for him to re-sign... Mauer Extension Talks Begin While all of Boston awaits the man of our dreams... er, catcher of our dreams leaving Minnesota for our nightly NESN living room broadcast, agent Ron Shapiro is beginning to discuss a contract extension for his all-world catcher...

Reaching into the MailBag

This one courtesy of James, aka "jgr jgr". James submitted a few puzzling questions, though this one made me think the most: "Is there some hitter or pitcher out there under the radar that you think will be wearing a new Boston uniform in 2010?" Well, going off this question, we'll avoid talking about the likely suspects, including Bay, Holliday, Harden, or Scutaro who have all received a great deal of coverage not only on this site, but on Sox discussion boards 'Nation' wide (Yes, that was a pun. No, I won't apologize.) As for truly under the radar names, we must look really deep into the free agent roster, probably to the point of back-end bullpen types or bench hitters. While these moves may not be exciting to the average layman, these are the transactions that make championships. Depth and injury/slump insurance is perhaps one of the most underrated aspects of building a championship team. John Henry could grab any fan off the streets to build a team that could win 100 games if everything were guaranteed to go as planned. However, the true talent and meddle of a front office is tested by their contingency planning. When a team has the type of financial resources the Sox have, it's difficult to pick a truly "under the radar" name that will make an impact, as the players the team is likely to sign are usually the top free agents, too big to fly below the hard deck. But there is still value to be that the rest of the baseball world is not discussing. Here's a few that I think the Sox may settle on before the off-season ends: Value at Starting Pitcher Assuming that the Cubs re-sign Rich Harden, while Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard find other suitors, I would love to see the Sox sign Carl Pavano. Though his 5.10 ERA left much to be desired, Pavano actually turned in quite a season in 2009, with a 4.00 FIP ERA to go along with a 3.77 K:BB rate. While his 6.64 K/9 was merely average, a 1.76 BB/9 rate is more than adequate. If you have burning questions about Red Sox Baseball, please submit your questions to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com. We'd love to hear what's got you thinking!

So Much So Soon: Analyzing the Sox’ Looong Weekend

Well, that was quick. After a slow couple weeks while we waited for the crowning of the new World Series Champion (who, sadly, were the New York Yankees), the MLB hot stove exploded in a flurry of moves including the trades of Jeremy Hermida and J.J. Hardy, the rejection of Alex Gonzalez’s, Jermaine Dye’s, and Jason Varitek’s options, the outrighting of Nick Green and Joey Gathright, the retention of Victor Martinez, and the re-signing of Tim Wakefield and Bobby Abreu. I’m out of breath. But man, what a week. Jeremy Hermida Though Hermida was just the first pin to drop, coming over to Boston in exchange for Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez, he is quite the exciting piece. Though he vastly underperformed his prospect billing during his seasons with the Marlins, Hermida used to be quite the prospect, ranking as Florida’s top farmhand from 2004-2006 and the MLB’s 4^th best in 2006. But he has fallen quite far since then, posting a cumulative .265/.344/.425 line in 1708 career at-bats. Though Hermida is a big-bodied corner outfielder, standing 6-3, 222 lbs, his power has yet to come around at the big league level, as he posted a career high of just 18 homers back in 2007. Of greater concern, however, has been the dissipation of his walk rate since arriving in the Majors. His once begone elite batting eye was the primary reason for his soaring stock in the minor leagues – of particular interest was his prodigious showing at AA Carolina in 2005, where he drew 111 BBs against just 89 strikeouts in 504 plate appearances on his way to a .293/.457/.518 line.

Wake Re-signed, Contract Re-Negotiated

According to Dan Roche of WBZ-TV, the Sox have re-signed Sox' elder statesman Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal, guaranteeing the pitcher $3.5 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. MLB Trade Rumors, citing WEEI's Rob Bradford, states that the deal could approach $7 million should the knuckleballer reach all his incentive landmarks. This contract is a departure from past negotiations between the Sox and Wakefield, where the team held a renewable $4 million option on the pitcher's services. The transaction demonstrates that the Red Sox brass have lost a modicum of confidence in Wakefield and his ailing back, as he recovers from his latest surgery and enters his age-44 season. While it is discouraging that the team has lost enough faith in Wake to discontinue his $4 million option, the good news is that he will once again be donning the Boston red come April. Hopefully, he will be able to top his 129.2 inning total from 2009, which was his lowest single-season mark since his rookie season in 1992. Given Wake's effectiveness last season, the Sox can reasonably expect good production out of their aging starter. His 4.58 ERA and 4.58 FIP suggest a quality pitcher still remains, so long as he can stay out of the trainer's room. However, his accumulating injuries suggest that he cannot be relied upon to consistently take the mound. While it's unfortunate that the Sox ended their previous arrangement with Wakefield, it is a good move for the team, as they can save a couple million here and there, allowing the team to spend money elsewhere. In addition, there is a very good chance that this is Wake's final contract, so any leverage he gains by 2012 through performance and inflation will likely make little difference. While $0.5 million this season and $2.5 million in 2010 may not seem like much, the money saved will go a long way toward keeping young talent around in arbitration and signing bench players to add depth.Even for teams with $100+ million payrolls, every penny counts.

Twins Acquire J.J. Hardy

The Minnesota Twins traded for Milwaukee Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy today, in exchange for centerfielder Carlos Gomez. Prior to 2009, Hardy had been among the better offensive shortstops in the majors, though his numbers slumped significantly in 2009. Hardy had been listed among the Red Sox' shortstop trade targets this offseason. The move eliminates a valuable option for the team, as they must now contemplate between free agent acquisitions, a trade (possibly for Stephen Drew), or picking up Alex Gonzalez's option. Hardy batted .283/.343/.478 in 2008 with 24 home runs in 2008, before batting just .229/.302/.357 in 2009.

Theo’s “95-Win Team”, Beckett’s Extension, Falling Dominoes, and the Mailbag

Theo’s “95-Win Team" In recent years, one of the most important axioms put forth by the Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office is the law of the “95-Win Team”. According to this directive, the team’s goal is to target 95-wins annually in an effort to compete every season. This is really a great piece of wisdom, as a team that wins 95 games will make the playoffs most years. In fact, the Wild Card winner since 2003 – the first year Theo took the esteemed office of Red Sox General Manger – has averaged a record of just about 95-67. However, this doctrine relies on one major assumption – that this team will always be able to perform up to their expected level... Josh Beckett's Extension Over the past few days, rumors have been circulating that the Sox and the Josh Beckett camp have been discussing a contract extension. Adding fuel to the rumors, Beckett and agent Michael Moye have indicated that there will be no hometown discount for the Sox, so the team will have to be ready to shell out quite a bit of cash. Introducing the FireBrand Mailbag And, finally, introducing the FireBrand mailbag, where we will answer all of your darkest, most burning questions about Red Sox Baseball. If you would like to ask the writers a question to be answered on the site, please forward your inquiries to Mike_Silver_FireBrandAL@yahoo.com.

BoSox AFL Update

With the conclusion of every major league season comes the beginning of the second season of “minor” leagues in baseball – the Winter Leagues. This 2009 off-season, the Sox have placed 17 promising prospects across four leagues, including some of the most exciting names in the organization, such as Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, Jose Iglesias, and Yamiaco Navarro. The Winter Leagues are one of the more interesting annual rituals of the MLB, aside from maybe the Rule 5 Draft, as every team in baseball pours their most highly touted prospects into one pool where they duke it out for organizational supremacy.

The 2009 Shortstop Free Agent Market

One of the more pressing issues facing the Red Sox this offseason, the shortstop position can be considered the number two need for the team, behind the gaping hole in left field. But shortstop may actually be the more challenging option of the two, as the position features few legitimate major league options to fill gaps. As Evan outlined earlier, there are a bevy of quality left field options available on the market, headlined by Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and Bobby Abreu but also including upside buys in Jermaine Dye and Rick Ankiel, as well as plenty of depth. Come December, no team will be left wanting for a left field option. Teams seeking shortstops will not have this luxury, however. Cot’s Contracts lists just 12 free agent shortstops among this class; 2 of whom have club options. And, no, David Eckstein won’t be considered for the position either. He’s a second baseman now, can’t hit, and has a declining glove. Here are the candidates:

Seeing Straight on Aroldis Chapman

When any new phenomenon arrives, it takes a while for people to adjust their lifestyle and accommodate these changes. Cell phones are the most recent example. The Internet was another. In the baseball world, free agent-prospects are the newest slang, which, understandably, are forcing major league teams to adjust - with varied results. Baseball's newest free agent-prospect phenom, Aroldis Chapman is expected to visit Boston today, on the heels of a visit to New York on Monday. A world-class talent, he is turning baseball economics on its head. On the one hand, he is a prospect – a lean, projectable lefty at a young age, 21. On the other, he will command the salary of a major league free agent – not what you'd expect of a “prospect”. The newest “It Kid” from overseas, Chapman comes fully loaded with everything that makes scouts salivate more than Pavlov’s dogs: a ferocious fastball clocked as high as 102 mph and a long 6-4 frame. As a result, the young Cuban is considered the best prospect to reach the MLB this side of Stephen Strasburg – and he’s a lefty to boot. But there’s a problem with taking this position; mainly, the fact that he’s even labeled a “prospect”. Sure, he has all the traditional markings of one. He’s got exceptional tools, he’s projectable, he’s raw, and, most importantly, he’s young. However, under the modern economics of baseball, with escalating salaries and widely varying budgets, there are two nonnegotiable criteria that give value to and create the allure of the “prospect”...