Is Matsuzaka still injured?

Although his skills are not ever going to let him be anything more than a number five pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka can still be worth the value of his deal if he can just stay healthy. In 2007 and 2008 he posted WAR over 3.2 and was worth nearly $15 million in free agent dollars those years.

Trying to value pitch calling

On May fourth I asked the question, Should Jason Varitek be the Starting Catcher? Not much has changed as at the time I noted "In 146 IP thrown to Martinez the staff has a K/BB of 1.64, but when Varitek has caught in 83.6 innings the staff has thrown a 2.35 K/BB." That trend has largely continued as Varitek has saw more time, so how much is the difference worth? Some things to keep in mind is that this is a skill we really can't value before the catchers catch the same pitchers. We knew Victor Martinez was not the best catcher, but how could anyone know for sure his pitch calling would raise these questions. So this is more of an exercise done in retrospect and would help decide how to approach Martinez this offseason.

This is what a straight pitch looks like

If you ever wondered what a nearly perfectly straight fastball looks like Bill Hall showed us Friday night. He threw 11 pitches and the average horizontal movement was about -2 inches, which is basically straight with about 10 inches of "rise". His location was good down in the zone and always fun to watch a position player give pitching a shot. Last year we had Nick Green throw and now Hall, but let's hope we don't see it again soon.

The offense impresses even with fill ins

I still have trouble listening when people talk about how adding a bat would make a huge difference on this team. Perhaps they are referring to the failed attempt to keep Jason Bay or perhaps they would like a trade for an all star hitter like Adrian Gonzalez. Well besides all the troubles in dealing with a team leading the NL West right now. Beyond all that you have to ask how much difference would any of these players have made so far?

So far the offense has scored 178 runs before Wednesday's game. That total puts them in fourth only four runs behind the Yankees and seven behind the leading Rays. For a team apparently struggling to put up runs they sure have totaled an impressive amount missing quite a few games from their lead off hitter and center fielder.

Lackey continues to allow contact

We have learned over the years that the only things a pitcher can control are strike outs, walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Things like hits and home runs are just a factor of league averages and things like defense and luck. Lackey finished Wednesday night with an ERA of 3.89 and seems to be joining the rest of the pitchers in winning results. The trouble is his numbers he controls don't back that up and he is benefiting by a run of good luck. He has only been striking out 5.10 batters every nine innings, which is down two from his career average. That is a huge drop in one season and very concerning. This is made even worse by a BB/9 that is up from 2.66 in his career to 3.60. His ground ball rate has held at career levels leaving his change in K/BB at 1.42 this year from a career rate of 2.69. All of this doom and gloom points to a pitcher with a xFIP of 4.94. While his FIP says 4.12, which would be ok that has a lot to do with his HR/FB rate at 5.4 percent.

Should Jason Varitek continue to catch

Heading into 2010 it was a fairly easy choice that we wanted Victor Martinez to supply the offense we needed from the catcher position and give adequate defense behind the plate. So far though there has been some early results that might be good reasoning to place Martinez in the DH spot more often and give Varitek a final year of significant work in a Red Sox uniform. While Martinez offense has not been there yet this season his number look fine. He is striking out only 7 percent of the time, which is lower than any season in his career. His walk rate is a bit low at 8.5 percent, but nothing significant from his career rate of 10 percent. His power has not been around yet, but neither has his luck with a BABIP of .241. Once that regresses to the mean his average will return and his OBP. There is good reason to use him over Ortiz at the DH, but is there a reason why we should use Varitek over Martinez at catcher? I was wondering the same thing and no it's not a question of offense. He may look impressive right now, but a .500 ISO will make anyone look impressive. The power is exceptional, but once it regresses his other numbers will return to what they have been or a .230/.330/.440 line or a .340 wOBA. That is about league average and although probably better than Ortiz right now not a reason to change.

Jason Bay is now average defender

A little over a week ago fangraphs.com updated their UZR calculations with the first batch of 2010 data. This update included some work on arm skill as well as changes for quirky stadiums including Fenway Park. This change was done to include previous seasons and now Jason Bay made one of the largest gains as his -13.8 runs value became a 1.9 value. John Tomase decided to use this as a chance to say UZR owes Jason Bay an apology. Let's start with a reminder there is no chance the Red Sox are using UZR and have their own model so let's not make any assumptions UZR had anything to do with the Red Sox failing to sign him. Even with the changes no stat is perfect and I'm sure we'll be discussing the next Bay in the offseason. Perhaps that will be Jeremy Hermida who has improved his defense in UZR coming from Florida.

Adrian Gonzalez takes another step away from the Sox

I've never thought the Red Sox had much shot of adding Adrian Gonzalez this past offseason or any year before his free agency year. So far this season though Gonzalez and the Padres have made a deal even harder as he is off to a huge start and the Padres are winning. They are currently 4 games above .500 in this young season with Gonzalez producing very well. That is not the newest reason for a diminished chance to add Gonzalez. I think the awful signing of Ryan Howard might hinder the future prospects of signing the slugging first baseman. Howard agreed to a five year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for a total of $125 million. That at first seems like a bit of an overpay, but when you add on a $23 million option with a $10 million buy out and his two years left on his current deal it is a train wreck. This has to change the market when looking at all the big name power hitting sluggers coming up in the next few years. That list includes Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Plus they're all better and younger than Howard. These guys will all be signing deals that start in there pre 30's except the best of the bunch, Pujols.

Bigger problems than stolen bases

Giving up a stolen base can sure seem like a big deal and when you give up nine of them you would think that is a huge number. It isn't something you want to give up every night, but it's not as big of a problem as our pitching staff's inability to not give up the free pass. A stolen base has an average value of about 0.18 runs. That means every time a runner takes a base he increases his teams chances to score by that amount. That isn't much and when you take into account the potential to lose 0.43 value if you are caught it's a pretty dangerous wager. In the case of the Rangers off of Tim Wakefield though on Tuesday night there wasn't much danger of being caught and only value to gain. It was an easy choice for them and gave them approximately 1.62 runs in value. That is no amount to ignore and is worth slightly more than the average home run, which is worth about 1.4.

JD Drew struggles to get on base

Something we aren't used to seeing in Boston is JD Drew not getting on base over 35 percent of the time. So far in 2010 he has only walked 12 percent of the time and struck out 42 percent of the time. For a career rate around 22 percent that is a huge jump. Strike out rate is something that takes about 200+ AB to become statistically significant so it's to early to say he has lost his swing, but perhaps we can see what is troubling him so far in 2010. One thing I noticed is in his swing charts he has gone after many more down and inside pitches than he did all of last year. Here is his swing chart from 2009 and notice how most of the pitches are very tight in the zone.