Verducci effect uses more circumstantial evidence

I have always been critical of the "Verducci Effect" or "Year After Effect" as I have yet to see the study that proves its existence. Now that it's February again, Tom Verducci has released his top ten high-risk pitchers based on the "Verducci Eeffect". As I was reading the article I became a bit upset by his defensive nature and use of circumstantial evidence to prove his point. I am a scientist in drug discovery and if I ever used his "evidence" to prove the efficacy of a compound I would be laughed out of a job or selling Homeopathic medicine. So, what actually is the Verducci Effect? The general idea is a pitcher under the age of 25 who increases his number of innings by more than 30 from his highest total is at risk of injury in following years. On the surfacem the theory seems plausible; with proper evidence and data we could formulate a study to allow the theory to be critized and able to stand behind on its own merits. My first criticism is that Verducci allows the evidence to not just be injuries, which are already very common among pitchers under 25, but also uses decreased performance as a proof of the theory. It's even more maddening that he uses ERA to prove this decrease in skills. Being a reader of Fire Brand I'm sure you know ERA season by season is not a very accurate measure of a pitchers skill, as the eventual ERA value assigned per year isn't solely dependent upon the pitcher's performance. Numerous factors outside the pitcher's control have a great affect on ERA.

Interview at Mets Paradise

Last week I answered some questions for Scott Wallace at Mets Paradise. You can check them out today. There was some good questions about the roster and a few on front office and the farm system. Of course there was also the obligatory question about Jason Bay and why the Red Sox let him go. With the Mets looking like a .500 team this year I'm glad he didn't ask me for more thoughts on them.

Extending Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez has publicly stated he would like to extend his contract with the Boston Red Sox and perhaps even finish his career here. I don't doubt he would like to stay here, but the question we have to ask is how much will it cost to get it done. He would like to have something before the season starts. The first question is the length of a new deal. This will be his age 31 season and he would surely be looking for a four to five year deal. With his ability to get on base and solid power I don't see a problem with that length of deal, but we should immediately think how long can he last behind the plate.

Contibute to the Red Sox Annual

Randy Booth over at Over the Monster has decided to undertake the big quest to make his first Red Sox Annual. I have contributed some work to this and many other Red Sox bloggers/writers have done so as well. All content will be original work and I am looking forward to reading it. Randy has asked for some of the readers help as well. Head over to the site and if you have graphic design experience you could help design the annual. They also are looking for fan's to contribute their favorite moments in an essay format under 250 words. You should be able to read the Annual in March at some point and it will be a PDF format for easy reading.

10 questions of regression for 2010

With trucks heading to Florida yesterday it's a good time to look at the questions for what the Red Sox hope will happen in 2010. With breakouts and new levels of performance there is always the possibility of regression. That can also include getting better as you return to the mean. What are the top ten possible regressions for 2010? 10. Can Manny Delcarmen find the plate - While Manny never had great control there was an alarming rate of walks in 2009. He walked 5.13 batters every nine innings or more than a batter every two innings. We found the signs of arm problems here and I think that with health he should be better, but a better walk rate is required for him to be a solid contributor.

Reasons to let Beckett reach free agency

There has been a lot of talk this offseason of how Josh Beckett will approach 2010 with John Lackey signed for the next five years. Will he be pissed or determined? We can't know, but while Curt Schilling is feeling free to share his opinion again I'll give my reason why he's wrong and Beckett will be a free agent after 2010. The first reason we already discussed a bit, but there are plenty of questions about Beckett's health. I discussed this on Fireside chat #68, but the central point is Beckett has injury history that can be very concerning. While many will say what about Lackey's history I also discussed that in the podcast. He has an injury that is less severe and from his velocity and movement looked better with rest. Beckett was able to top 200 IP for just the third time in his carer this year, but the last month was rough and might have been better served with a bit of rest. His back was a problem and could be seen in his lower velocity and some movement problems. This is no time to sign a pitcher and you should definitely wait to see how he does in 2010.

Remembering Nomar Garciaparra in Boston

One of the more interesting names in Red Sox history with an origin from his fathers first name turned backwards and his last name is a combination of his parents last names. He was not only an elite athlete, but with a 4.0 GPA in high school and majored in business management at Georgia Tech. He was then drafted 12th overall by the Boston Red Sox in 1994 with the 12th overall pick. After three years in the minors he made his first full season in 1997 with the Red Sox. He led the league in AB, hits and triples. He won the rookie of the year award and was voted 8th in the MVP award voting. His season would only be a taste of what was to coma as over the next 6 seasons he would total 40.6 WAR according to Sean Smith's WAR calculations. This amazing 7 year span even includes his forgettable 2001 season including the Sports Illustrated cover, a wrist injury and only 21 games played. That's how great he really was and comparing him to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez he was right in the middle with Rodriguez totaling 54 WAR in his first seven full years and Jeter with 35.1. While in Boston he was often known for his first pitch swings and infield pop ups, but that never hurt his production. He was not much for taking walks with a career BB% of 6.6%, but much like Dustin Pedroia he could hit most anything around the plate. He only struck out 10% of the time on average.

Projecting the Yankees number five pitcher

Joba Chamberlain finally got his full season to start and things didn't turn out as the Yankees had hoped. His splits crashed and he wasn't the same pitcher. At the same time Phil Hughes established himself in the bullpen after being unable to stay healthy in the starting role. In the minors Chamberlain had an elite strikeout rate and continued to show that in the majors as a reliever. Overall a pitcher will always have lower strikeout rate as a starter and you can see that in his career K/9 as a starter in the majors at 8.4, while 11.9 as a reliever. That number is still a great number, but something happened this year. His K/9 dropped to 7.61 and his walks rose as well. This has to be partly due to his loss in velocity going from 97 in 2007 to 95 in 2008. He then dropped to 92.5 this year as a full time starter. There is obviously some velocity drop being a starter to preserve his arm. I have the feeling this amount has some to do with his shoulder problems in 2008.

PECOTA confirms our thoughts on 2010 and Clay Buchholz

This week the PECOTA projections were run through with depth charts and attempted to project final standings based on opening day expected rosters. Obviously trades, injuries and breakout/slumps will change these results, but so far they have the Red Sox at 95-67 finishing in second place. Of course the big surprise is who is in first. PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to finish at 96-66 winning the East with the Red Sox as the favorite for the wild card. So where are the Yankees? Third place with a record of 93-69 and out of the playoffs. OK so 3 wins separating the three is not something to bet on, but confirms what we have said all along. The Red Sox have changed their strengths, but maintained their ability to win 95 games and make the playoffs.

The state of the bullpen

This offseason has centered mostly around the improved defense and addition of John Lackey to our rotation. The bullpen though has been largely left to small moves to patch up the back and look for solid years from the rest. As it stands the pen returns Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen. The starting rotation currently has 6 solid starters with Tim Wakefield as a long reliever and Boof Bonser as a long shot to squeeze in. They have also added Brian Shouse, Edwin Moreno, Jorge Sosa, Scott Atchinson, Robert Manuel and Ramon A. Ramirez. The team entered 2009 with 12 starting pitchers including 5 starters and 7 relievers. Let's assume they enter 2010 with the same numbers, but we'll label the last reliever as on the bubble as he could be a minor league option. Sure Things Closer and setup are solid with Papelbon and Bard continuing were they left 2009. We have had plenty of discussions about these two here, here, here and here. While Bard still has some questions and his projections show he isn't quite ready to be be a closer, but a solid setup man. His CHONE projection calls for a 3.48 ERA and only a 2.09 K/BB. I have some doubts about that K/BB and think he can be much better as does MARCEL and Bill James at 2.53 and 2.80 respectively.