Know Thyself 2009: Boston Red Sox

The 2009 Boston Red Sox are in the final stages of preparing for what is certain to be an entertaining and exciting season. The spring is finally behind us, the roster is set and the team is moving northward to christen Citi Field with some Major League talent.

Now all the roster moves are behind us and the questions move from the "who" of the offseason as they shift to the analysis of performance and the "what" of baseball. This past week has been spent looking at the competition in the American League East, and stiff competition it is. In most cases, the Red Sox had the position by position edge over each team from the Yankees to the Orioles and it should come as no surprise, in that light, that the staff here at Fire Brand gives the Red Sox the edge to win the AL East in 2009.

Today we summarize much of what we've talked about in our "For Better or Worse" series this offseason as we go player by player through the Red Sox roster and prepare for live baseball next week.

Know Thine Enemy 2009: New York Yankees

The other half of the best rivalry in sports, The New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers "only" ended up with 89 victories last season. And the key players they inked this past off-season, have them looking incredibly strong on paper for this upcoming 2009 season.

The philosophy about building a strong farm was basically put on hold for a year. But Brian Cashman made some nice maneuvers, and the result--whether it was intentional or not--allowed the Yankees to lose their first three picks this year. And that is better than losing a first-round pick in three consecutive seasons, of course.

Chat Transcript: Ortiz, Yankees, Buchholz and more

David Ortiz - Samara Pearlstein

Sit down with a big cup of coffee, because have I a treat for you. I participated in a chat on Tuesday night and they have made the transcript available for Fire Brand to peruse.

I talk about which minor leaguers to keep an eye on... what the Sox need to do to win this year... how important David Ortiz is to us.

Oh, I also throw out predictions such as who will finish at first... scoff at the Yankees... and talk about who the heck can be our future catcher.

He is not Manny…

Look, I understand why having no Manny could cause concern. Manny, after all, has accomplished things on a baseball field that I have never seen before, especially from the right side of the plate. The 2007 postseason is a great example of just how incredible of a hitter Manny Ramirez was. His "domination" of good pitching nonetheless, was near remarkable, in baseball terms. Pitchers such as Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia seemed over-matched, and ace pitchers are not usually over-matched like that. It was almost as if Manny was the one with the ball in his hands.

So I understand the hesitance to say that Jason Bay is the second coming of Manny. Because it wouldn't be true. He just isn't that good.

However, don't misinterpret that, for Jason Bay is actually very good.

Defensive Misplays and the Sox that excel at them

Defensive Runs show how good a player is at preventing runs. But there's more than that that goes into fielding. What about mistake-free plays?

You would think that preventing runs and mistake-free plays go hand in hand, but not quite.

In the Fielding Bible Vol. II in which I received today, Bill James has unveiled publicly what I feel is a revolutionary statistic: Defensive Misplays.

is it any accident they're aggressive about playing Ellsbury, acquired Kotsay, resigned Lowell and brought Bay in?

Examining the Red Sox’s defense via Defensive Runs

A couple years ago, The Fielding Bible took baseball by storm with John Dewan's Plus/Minus system to evaluate fielders. This year, he's back at it with The Fielding Bible--Volume II in which he takes all the metrics created in the original volume and distills them into Defensive Runs, a statistic that can show how good a player is at preventing runs.

Poll: Better of Worse: Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2009 Stolen Base Total?

New Poll Question:
Better of Worse: Jacoby Ellsbury's 2009 Stolen Base Total?

Early last season it seemed like Jacoby might steal 75 bags, but a mid-season slump hit both his bat and his legs and he ended up with only 50. Can he top 60 in 2009? Vote in the poll to the left and give your community projection for Ellsbury here. Find out how you all responded to our previous poll, "Will Jason Bay hit 30+ HRs in 2009?" after the jump.

Poll: Better or Worse: Jason Bay’s 2009 Home Run Total?

New Poll Question: Better of Worse: Jason Bay's 2009 Home Run Total?

Just a simple over/under on Bay's home run total. Do you think Bay will top the 30 HR mark in 2009? Vote in the poll to the left. You can find the previous poll results after the jump.

JUNKYARD DOGS, A Season of Redemption . . . and Hope.

17 of the starting 25 Red Sox for 2009 have much to prove this season. Of this number, 15 are rebounding from injuries which plagued 2008.

Using xBABIP and IF/F to predict some Sox’s 2009 numbers

A month ago, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix collaborated together to come up with a new statistic -- xBABIP. For batters, a .300 BABIP is not a reliable benchline (as it is for pitchers), nor is there one standard benchline across all batters. They have to be personalized, which Dutton and Bendix did.

David Ortiz looks to be in line for a monster regression to the mean... except in this case, regression is a good thing. You can expect a .300 average as a reasonable forecast next year for Big Papi.

Check out the numbers behind the reasoning for Big Papi, plus some interesting numbers on Jason Bay, Julio Lugo and others...