Measuring a Catcher’s Influence

There’s been a lot of talk throughout Red Sox Nation both in the media and the blogosphere about who should…

2011 Red Sox Projected Stolen Bases

photo © 2007 Eric Kilby | more info (via: Wylio) ^ Bill James’s total projected stolen bases: 143 My total…

The Captain is Back

Late in the 2010 season, it seemed as though Jason Varitek’s tenure with the Red Sox had come to an…

The DL All-Stars

Kevin Youkilis left last night's game in the 4th inning with an ankle injury. At the moment, it appears he'll be fine -- the word out of Fenway is that he'll be in the lineup tonight. Still, the sight of Youk leaving the game yesterday must have caused remotes across New England to be flung in exasperated disgust as the injury bug appeared to claim another key player on this 2010 Red Sox team. In recounting the injuries that have plagued the club this year, it occurs to me that we could field a fairly talented club solely from our DL. In order to find out exactly how good, I decided to draw up a lineup (nine offensive positions, two starters, a setup man, and a closer) and see how well it would stack up given their projected 2010 WAR (I'm using CHONE projections for batters because they're the easiest to find, but the estimates shouldn't be too far afield; for pitchers it's a bit tricky, but I'll resort to using fangraphs.com's fan projections -- imperfect, but close enough). This is obviously a thought experiment more than anything else, but it's interesting to see exactly how much talent the Sox have lost so far this season.

Prospective Additions and the BoSox’ AL East Title Chances

There’s no doubt the Sox recent injuries have done a number on the club’s chances of winning the AL East. So we thought it would be interesting to uncover how bleak -- or rosy -- the those chances have become. Prior to the slew of injuries that befell Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia, and Jason Varitek, Baseball Prospectus had the Sox at about a 99-win team with an 853-702 scoring differential. That team, with the current standings, would have won the division about 38 percent of the time -- a solid second best to the Yankees' expected title rate of 45 percent. The Devil Rays take the cake about 18 percent of the time while the Blue Jays and Orioles are almost nowhere to be seen. But that was a different team. Injuries have decimated this club and with it, their chances at the division. So, we sought to quantify this question and see just how often the new lineup would win the AL East. We’ll spare you the nitty-gritty details, but the essentials are this: based on the expected run production of the new lineup, we simulated 10,000 “seasons,” the end result being an AL East championship probability. Further, we plugged in some of the club’s rumored trade targets and internal options to measure their effect on the team. Playing time estimates are rough estimates and are subject to change. Production estimates are based on Fangraphs.com’s CHONE projections. Below are the results.

Varitek and Delcarmen Down, Possible Trade Candidates

The injury carousel keeps turning – and, unfortunately, keeps landing on the Red Sox’ spot. While Jason Varitek was placed on the disabled list Thursday with a broken foot, Manny Delcarmen was also added on Friday with a strained right forearm. Reliever Robert Manuel was recalled to replace Delcarmen while catcher Kevin Cash was acquired from the Astros in return for infielder Angel Sanchez. Second baseman Niuman Romero was called up from Pawtucket to assume Sanchez’ vacated roster spot. With all the injuries and new names flying around, this seems like the perfect opportunity to stress the importance of offseason minor league acquisitions. While these replacement level signings are often glossed over in the newspapers and on the transactions lists, these players are signed for precisely this reason: to provide insurance against the unlikely event of a nightmare scenario playing out -- much like the one the Sox are currently in.

Varitek hits the DL

Um, ouch.

Jason Varitek hits the disabled list and will be out for six weeks. This means the next nine games require Kevin Cash and Gustavo Molina behind the dish.

Oh, ye injury gods. Have you no mercy?

Trying to value pitch calling

On May fourth I asked the question, Should Jason Varitek be the Starting Catcher? Not much has changed as at the time I noted "In 146 IP thrown to Martinez the staff has a K/BB of 1.64, but when Varitek has caught in 83.6 innings the staff has thrown a 2.35 K/BB." That trend has largely continued as Varitek has saw more time, so how much is the difference worth? Some things to keep in mind is that this is a skill we really can't value before the catchers catch the same pitchers. We knew Victor Martinez was not the best catcher, but how could anyone know for sure his pitch calling would raise these questions. So this is more of an exercise done in retrospect and would help decide how to approach Martinez this offseason.

The Future Holds many Questions for the Red Sox Catching — And Hopefully an Answer

Fact: As a catcher, Victor Martinez makes a good first baseman – and a D.H.

Fact: Jason Varitek, at 38, is on the down side of a once brilliant career. Fact: Both players’ contracts expire after the 2010 season. Question: Who will comprise the next generation of Red Sox catchers? Will it be either Pawtucket catcher Mark Wagner or Dusty Brown, each of whom is on Boston’s 40-man roster? Or will it be one – or both – of Boston’s very best catcher prospects, Luis Exposito or Tim Federowicz?

Should Jason Varitek continue to catch

Heading into 2010 it was a fairly easy choice that we wanted Victor Martinez to supply the offense we needed from the catcher position and give adequate defense behind the plate. So far though there has been some early results that might be good reasoning to place Martinez in the DH spot more often and give Varitek a final year of significant work in a Red Sox uniform. While Martinez offense has not been there yet this season his number look fine. He is striking out only 7 percent of the time, which is lower than any season in his career. His walk rate is a bit low at 8.5 percent, but nothing significant from his career rate of 10 percent. His power has not been around yet, but neither has his luck with a BABIP of .241. Once that regresses to the mean his average will return and his OBP. There is good reason to use him over Ortiz at the DH, but is there a reason why we should use Varitek over Martinez at catcher? I was wondering the same thing and no it's not a question of offense. He may look impressive right now, but a .500 ISO will make anyone look impressive. The power is exceptional, but once it regresses his other numbers will return to what they have been or a .230/.330/.440 line or a .340 wOBA. That is about league average and although probably better than Ortiz right now not a reason to change.