Evaluating the 2010 team so far

After adding John Lackey and Mike Cameron the team is starting to take shape. Although most think we need to make another move it's possible we enter 2010 as we stand now. That isn't very likely if the Mike Lowell trade is completed, but to start I'm going to look at the roster without any third baseman. *Here is the explanation of how I calculated the WAR values I will be using. If you want to skip this just know it's an average of several projections. For those that are interested I used Bill James projection, Fangraphs new Fans Projection (where available) and CHONE projections. To calculate WAR for Bill James I used his batting runs above average and the CHONE defensive projection since Bill does not project defense. Fan projections already account for WAR and needed no calculation. CHONE is batting and defense above league average. To complete the calculation to WAR for Bill James and CHONE I used CHONE PA to calculate replacement level runs and positional adjustment. Unfortunately this double weights CHONE on PA and defense projections. Once I have calculated the three WAR values I sum the team totals and average them. Better than 2009 Now that that is out of the way we should get an idea of what are good values. In 2009 the Red Sox had the third most runs scored and their batting runs above average totaled 98.8 which ranked second in the league. This includes the whole team and all season. The good news is that the projections so far are much better than that for our group of 8 (Remember no third basemen). Bill James projects a 133.8 runs above average and CHONE calls for 106.

Sox Fans Grab Mallets While Theo Prepares to Be The Whack-a-Mole

This will certainly be a defining offseason when Red Sox historians look back on Theo Epstein’s legacy as Boston GM. If the acquisitions work, fans and media alike will sing high praise – and the untouchable GM will become all the more invincible. If the moves fail, he will be chastised and become vulnerable for the first time in his career. It’s difficult to give a grade to Theo at this point of the offseason - much less begin to rip him in the media. For one, there’s still so much work to be done that any analysis is incomplete, especially with Mike Lowell hanging in limbo. On the other hand, the fact that there’s been so much contention over every signing thus far means that there's likely not a single person left in New England that is happy with our GM - and any failure for the free agents in the upcoming season will be overmagnified. Marco Scutaro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron. There is no concensus – lots of very intelligent people have advocated on both sides for all three acquisitions. Marco Scutaro is the best of a poor class of free agent shortstops. He’ll end up costing the Red Sox a 2nd round pick and is signed to a very favorable 3-year (or some would say 2-year) deal. He’s a late bloomer who some argue is a one-year wonder. Scutaro will have to be every bit as good as his breakout in 2009 for both sides to be satisfied. A good personnel move? Yes. But, it will be hard for Theo to win this one in the media...

John Lackey joins Boston in curious move

By all indications, the Red Sox will have John Lackey serving as their No. 3 starter this upcoming season. The right-hander inked a five-year, $85 million deal which is exactly market value for his services. Lackey is a solid signing for the Red Sox, as long as they don't attempt to stretch him into an ace. The 31-year old is in the mold of Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis: hard-nosed, fiery people who want to be out there every day kicking butt and taking names. The five years is a point of contention. Boston has always been steadfast in its refusal to commit extended years to a pitcher. This is Theo Epstein's first five-year commitment to a free agent pitcher. Jon Lester was his first five-year pitcher, but of course, Lester is six years younger with three arbitration years factored into the contract -- so really, only two free agent years were bought out. That five-year commitment to Lackey scares me, especially when the final year will be when Lackey is 35 years old. Coupled with his injury red flags and contact numbers, and I can't really figure out what Boston saw in Lackey. Does he have a good chance of repeating his 2009 numbers over the next five years? Yes. But there is an equal chance of something going horribly awry. It doesn't seem characteristic of Theo to commit this risk to a pitcher. To a position player, sure. But he's been very good on the pitching ledger, so he's stuck his neck out a bit with this pact.

Lackey, Chapman to Boston?

UPDATE 2: Jon Heyman says that Lackey's contract is five years, $85 million. I'll wait a bit before passing judgment because initial contract term rumors end up being more "in the area" than accurate. I will say that if it's a fully guaranteed five years, I am very, very surprised Boston chose Lackey of all people to commit five years to. This seems to signal that Jason Bay will not return, although I'm sure the door is not closed just yet. Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse tweets that John Lackey is taking a physical with the Red Sox. If true (Price is working to confirm the rumor from a source he trusts), Boston at the very least has some sort of framework agreement in place with Lackey to bring him to Beantown.

Do we want John Lackey?

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald:

A major-league source said that the Red Sox met with free agent starter John Lackey’s agent at the GM meetings this week in Chicago. The Red Sox expressed preliminary interest in the right-handed starter, who is arguably the top free agent starter available this coming season. The Red Sox are still in the fact-gathering stage in their quest to beef up their starting rotation and are expected to stay in contact about Lackey in the coming weeks.

I'm actually pretty interested in Lackey. Assuming he settles for a four-year deal, he would provide great depth. I do have some concerns about this:

• Can Lackey hold up? He's been beset by injuries recently.
• Will he be in a reasonable price range? If not, what's the appeal to Boston to sign him to a bigger deal?
• What ramifications down the road of signing Lackey is there? Letting Beckett walk?

Owned in Anaheim

As often happens when the Red Sox venture out West for a playoff series (as often happens), there's no more painful post to write than the one scheduled to hit the wires the morning following a late night start like we had in Game One of the ALDS - except of course the post following a game that saw the Red Sox hit their side of the Win Probability ledger only for one fleeting at bat the night prior. That chart pretty well sums up the Red Sox offense all night against Angels starter John Lackey; flatline.

10/8: The first marble

ALDS Game One Preview

With the opening pitch set for 9:37 pm, Eastern Standard Time, the Sox and Angels get ready to kick off their leg of the American League playoffs. The short-series ALDS will rely heavily on the opening game, as a 1-0 lead in a Best of 5 is better than finding money. With Beckett going up against Jered Weaver in Game Two, an opening win by Boston would put quite a damper on Anaheim’s plans. The first game features a battle of staff leaders. Sox Ace Jon Lester goes up against Angels’ number one John Lackey. Lester and the Sox have the definite edge in this one, as Lester has turned himself into an early Cy Young candidate for 2010, while Lackey has seen the erosion of his skills to a certain extent. Jon Lester The consummate field general, Angels Manager Mike Scioscia was likely up late last night game planning for the openeras his lineup is a very interesting match for Lester. With the option to bat as many as eight players right-handed (Anaheim has four switch hitters: Izturis, Morales, Aybar, and Figgins), Lester’s prominent reverse-platoon splits may give Scioscia pause when instructing his batters to hit right-handed. Lester’s pronounced splits have actually given the edge to left-handers this season, as they went a combined .257/.305/.411 against the ace, while righties compiled a .237/.299/.350 clip.

Sizing Up the Angels, Part II: The Staff

With the last installation surrounding the Anaheim Angels’ hitters, its time to take a look at the other half of the California equation: the pitching staff. The Angels come into the ALDS with one of the deeper rotations among the contenders, with five quality options manning four slots. Mike Scioscia has opted to go with John Lackey as his Game One starter, followed by Jered Weaver in Game Two, Scott Kazmir in Game Three, then Joe Saunders in Game Four. Fifth starter Ervin Santana has been sent to the bullpen, though there are still circles who believe him to be the better option of he and Saunders. While the overall quality of the Angels’ rotation is comparable to that of the Red Sox, it is not as top-heavy as their Boston counterparts. Few, if any, rotations boast the one-two punch of Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. However, with the seasons that Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright have had, St. Louis could have the Sox beat. Still, that’s beside the point. The Anaheim bullpen is also a quality outfit featuring some underrated arms and intriguing role players. However, when compared to the talent and depth present in the Sox ‘pen, this corps leaves much to be desired. As echoed by fellow FireBrand writer, Evan Brunell, “Bulger (if healthy), Palmer and Oliver are all good, but would all jockey with Manny Delcarmen for the final spot in Boston’s ‘pen,” this bullpen is already behind in the race.

So, who’s winning this Sox/Angels battle?

The Red Sox are set to do battle with the Angels later this week to decide who gets to play for the American League pennant. Boston and Los Angeles are certainly familiar with each other, having done battle in the 2004, '07 and '08 DCS. In fact, Boston went 9-1 in those games and the Angels' futility extends all the way bac to 1986 and Donnie Moore. Do the Angels have a chance to put their Boston voodoo behind them or will the Sawx manhandle L.A. all the way towards what seems to be an inevitable date with the Evil Empire? Read on to see pitching breakdowns, a look at the offense and defense, musings on hometown advantages, and the official prediction.