Category: Jon Lester

Drew Back on Track, A Thing or Two About Numbers, What is Fixable?

MLB: Red Sox vs Orioles MAY 02
Drew Back on Track No Sox hitter in the past two weeks has been hotter than J.D. Drew. In Boston’s last ten games, he’s batted 17-for-36 with three homers. The eight Ks are a bit unfortunate, but nothing concerning. Not including last night, his first strike percentage is down to 63.4 from 72.7, his BABIP is up to .329 from .194. What is particularly exciting about Drew’s performance is the type of contact he’s making. Besides it being hard and consistent, he’s been doing an excellent job of sending the ball the other way on two strikes. According to MLB.com’s Fenway Park hit chart, Drew has four opposite field singles this season to go along with two doubles. In 2009, he had all of five singles (seven depending on how narrowly or widely you define the left field) and five doubles (up to nine for the width of left field). In particular, Drew has been serving these opposite field singles with two strikes. Keeping his hands back and serving outside pitches into right field means he’s timing the ball much better than he had been. Lots of hitters in slumps will get ahead of the pitch and roll the ball over to the pull side...

The Case For Optimism

Monday night, we got a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Clay Buchholz put together another solid outing, further cementing himself as this season’s most reliable starter, and the offense put on a show — especially during a long 6th inning that saw seven Sox runners cross the plate. The question is this: was what we saw last night something we can expect to see again, or was it simply a reminder of how frustrating this season has become?

I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.

Beckett, Lester Stop Treading Water

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays April 26
There’s just not a whole lot that can be said after a club gets swept by the worst team in baseball. Maybe “worst team in baseball” is a bit unfair to the Baltimore Orioles, but they earned that title by entering the weekend’s series at 4-18 (.181 winning percentage). Even a silver lining is tough to come by in this one. The Sox seem to have whatever April malady ailed the '08 and ’09 Yankees -- characterized by having either the offense or pitching working on any given night, but never at the same time, leading to frustrating losses and swings in performance. This past weekend was no different: the offense was stellar on Saturday, but Daisuke Matsuzaka, predictably, blew up while Tim Wakefield chipped in to combine for twelve runs allowed -- including 10 in the fifth and sixth innings. The Sox lost 12-9...

IT CAN’T GET ANY WORSE, RIGHT?

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester falls to the ground after getting hit by a ball off the bat of New York Yankees Melky Cabrera at Yankee Stadium in New York
The Red Sox have played poorly in all facets of the game. As of games through April 22nd, they are ninth in run scored and thirteenth in runs against. Our eyes and the numbers tell us that the Olde Towne Team’s play has been ugly.

Even though most thought the Red Sox offense would suffer (I took a slightly different view), the other side of the ledger would make up for the drop off so professed the optimists of the media and the Nation. Run prevention -- pitching and defense -- was supposed to the strength of the Local Nine. Through April 22nd, the defense has been strong even with Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron missing multiple game. The Sox are second in Ultimate Zone Rating and eighth in Defense Efficiency. Hence, the biggest disappointment has been the pitchers and specifically, the top three starters.

So Goes the Pitching…

Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
So Goes the Pitching Staff In the midst of a four-game losing streak that has dropped the team to 4-8, Sox fans have begun the multi-annual ritual of name calling and finger pointing as to where blame lies on the club’s current skid. While the hitting has been poor by the normal standards, perhaps the most alarming development of the season has been the utter failure of the starting pitching staff. Of particular note is how easy the hurlers have been to hit and how often they have been falling behind early in the count. Jon Lester (5.40 BB/9, 1.5 K:BB ratio), John Lackey (4.26 BB/9, 0.83 K:BB), Jon Papelbon (8.44 BB/9, 0.40 K:BB), and Clay Buchholz (5.40 BB/9, 1.33 K:BB) have been the poster children for this trend -- seeing a precipitous deterioration in their first strike rates, zone percentages, and their contact rates.