Sox historically a step behind, but only a step

Mired on the Bruins beat as I was for the last half of the season, I could not help but start to think about some correlations between what I saw from the spoked B’s in January through March to what we have seen come out of the Fens in the first month-and-a-half of the Major League Baseball season.Two teams, beloved by the people, incredibly inconsistent and frustrating. Both came into their years with high expectations (run prevention and projection adding “another eight to nine wins” is simply not going to happen), both have trouble scoring at times and are dealing with low return on investment and injury.

The historic collapse of the Bruins notwithstanding, both teams are probably better than they have looked. Yes, the Flyers just ripped the heart out of the Hub, but the Black and Gold did deliver a second consecutive conference semifinals appearance to Causeway Street and that was not entirely a fluke.

So, I got to thinking about recent Sox history. I thought to myself: ‘haven’t we seen some frustrating starts in recent years only to come back and win 95 games?” Then I went to the numbers. Here are the May 15th runs scored, allowed and projected win-loss since 2004.

5/12 Online Seats Game Thread: Beckett’s Back Acts Up, Wakefield Gets Start for Boston

In a surprise and somewhat troubling scratch, Josh Beckett will not start today's early game for the Boston Red Sox, as Boston tries to complete a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. Instead, veteran workhorse Tim Wakefield, fresh from a recent bullpen stint, will get the nod in Beckett's place.

Drew Back on Track, A Thing or Two About Numbers, What is Fixable?

Drew Back on Track No Sox hitter in the past two weeks has been hotter than J.D. Drew. In Boston’s last ten games, he’s batted 17-for-36 with three homers. The eight Ks are a bit unfortunate, but nothing concerning. Not including last night, his first strike percentage is down to 63.4 from 72.7, his BABIP is up to .329 from .194. What is particularly exciting about Drew’s performance is the type of contact he’s making. Besides it being hard and consistent, he’s been doing an excellent job of sending the ball the other way on two strikes. According to MLB.com’s Fenway Park hit chart, Drew has four opposite field singles this season to go along with two doubles. In 2009, he had all of five singles (seven depending on how narrowly or widely you define the left field) and five doubles (up to nine for the width of left field). In particular, Drew has been serving these opposite field singles with two strikes. Keeping his hands back and serving outside pitches into right field means he’s timing the ball much better than he had been. Lots of hitters in slumps will get ahead of the pitch and roll the ball over to the pull side...

5/7 Online Seats Game Thread: Red Sox’ Rivals Return

The biggest rivalry in baseball returns tonight as the Boston Red Sox begin their second series of the year against the New York Yankees. The first meeting between the two titans saw the Red Sox draw first blood on opening night, while they ultimately fell short of the series victory. Tonight, Terry Francona will send his ace Josh Beckett out to the hill to take on Phil Hughes at Fenway Park.

The Case For Optimism

Monday night, we got a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Clay Buchholz put together another solid outing, further cementing himself as this season’s most reliable starter, and the offense put on a show — especially during a long 6th inning that saw seven Sox runners cross the plate. The question is this: was what we saw last night something we can expect to see again, or was it simply a reminder of how frustrating this season has become?

I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.

Should Jason Varitek continue to catch

Heading into 2010 it was a fairly easy choice that we wanted Victor Martinez to supply the offense we needed from the catcher position and give adequate defense behind the plate. So far though there has been some early results that might be good reasoning to place Martinez in the DH spot more often and give Varitek a final year of significant work in a Red Sox uniform. While Martinez offense has not been there yet this season his number look fine. He is striking out only 7 percent of the time, which is lower than any season in his career. His walk rate is a bit low at 8.5 percent, but nothing significant from his career rate of 10 percent. His power has not been around yet, but neither has his luck with a BABIP of .241. Once that regresses to the mean his average will return and his OBP. There is good reason to use him over Ortiz at the DH, but is there a reason why we should use Varitek over Martinez at catcher? I was wondering the same thing and no it's not a question of offense. He may look impressive right now, but a .500 ISO will make anyone look impressive. The power is exceptional, but once it regresses his other numbers will return to what they have been or a .230/.330/.440 line or a .340 wOBA. That is about league average and although probably better than Ortiz right now not a reason to change.

Beckett, Lester Stop Treading Water

There’s just not a whole lot that can be said after a club gets swept by the worst team in baseball. Maybe “worst team in baseball” is a bit unfair to the Baltimore Orioles, but they earned that title by entering the weekend’s series at 4-18 (.181 winning percentage). Even a silver lining is tough to come by in this one. The Sox seem to have whatever April malady ailed the '08 and ’09 Yankees -- characterized by having either the offense or pitching working on any given night, but never at the same time, leading to frustrating losses and swings in performance. This past weekend was no different: the offense was stellar on Saturday, but Daisuke Matsuzaka, predictably, blew up while Tim Wakefield chipped in to combine for twelve runs allowed -- including 10 in the fifth and sixth innings. The Sox lost 12-9...

5/2 Online Seates Game Thread: Sox Must Save Face in Baltimore

GAME NOTES Just hours after the Boston Red Sox, coughed up a second straight loss to the struggling Orioles, the boys from Beantown will take the field one last time in Camden Yards to try to pull a win out of the series and avoid the sweep. Josh Beckett will need to improve on the sub-par performance of Daisuke Matsuzaka during last night's loss, as the O's send Kevin Millwood to the hill.

4/26 Online Seats Game Thread: Red Sox Flock North

The Boston Red Sox will head north to Canada, kicking off week-long road stand against the Dana Eveland and the Toronto Blue Jays.

IT CAN’T GET ANY WORSE, RIGHT?

The Red Sox have played poorly in all facets of the game. As of games through April 22nd, they are ninth in run scored and thirteenth in runs against. Our eyes and the numbers tell us that the Olde Towne Team’s play has been ugly.

Even though most thought the Red Sox offense would suffer (I took a slightly different view), the other side of the ledger would make up for the drop off so professed the optimists of the media and the Nation. Run prevention -- pitching and defense -- was supposed to the strength of the Local Nine. Through April 22nd, the defense has been strong even with Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron missing multiple game. The Sox are second in Ultimate Zone Rating and eighth in Defense Efficiency. Hence, the biggest disappointment has been the pitchers and specifically, the top three starters.