Fire Brand Predictions: 1B/3B, bullpen

The final batch of predictions are below, dealing with how first/third base will shake out and how the bullpen will…

2011 Projections: Kevin Youkilis

Over at my site, fantasybaseball365.com, I do an annual set of projections for the upcoming season. While every team is…

Reflecting on Boston’s good contracts as a declining A-Rod hits No. 600

Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez hit his 600th career home run. While fanfare was mixed -- most non-Yankee fans could care less -- the one thing that jumped to my mind was how rough of a season A-Rod is actually having and how hard it was for him to finally reach 600 home runs. I then took a second look at his 10-year/$275 million dollar contract, which has seven years remaining. In my opinion, it could end up being the worst contract in baseball history. That got me thinking of some of the Red Sox current contracts and how they blow the A-Rod deal out of the water.

The first contract that stands out in my mind is the 6-year/$45.5 million dollar deal Dustin Pedroia signed before the 2009 season. Even in a "down year" last season, Pedroia was worth 5 WAR and even having missed a chunk of time this season he has already been worth 3.5 WAR. As a comparison, Alex Rodriguez, to this point in the season, has been worth only 2 WAR. Pedroia is signed through his prime seasons (27-31) and will make no more than $10 million, which comes at the end of the deal (also and $11 million dollar club option for 2015).

Is This It?

For a brief shining moment there, it seemed like these Red Sox were poised for a legendary season. Beset by injuries, hampered by a slow and painful start, facing an uphill battle against two tough divisional foes, the Sox rode unlikely bats, some exceptional pitching by Lester and Buchholz, and the resurgence of David Ortiz to within four games before the All-Star Break. It was a hell of a story, but it appears that the story may finally be grinding to a halt.

The injury to Kevin Youkilis could be seen as just another blow to a lineup already held together by wishes and duct tape, but it's more than that. Youkilis has been the Sox most potent offensive force for at least two years now, and he was the glue that held this offense together for most of the season. His loss leaves the club a second rate power, and it leaves the offense without its most important player for the first time all year. 6.5 games out, with the Rays surging and the Yankees treading water, the team is not done, but they cannot afford to lose any more ground or waste any more time. They need a run of epic proportions, and that's what Youk's injury endangers more than anything else.

8/3 Online Seats Game Thread: Tribe and Tribulations

The Boston Red Sox will need to regroup after narrowly dropping the season opener to the Cleveland Indians and losing Kevin Youkilis to the disabled list. Both Josh Beckett and David Huff will be going for their third wins of the year.

The DL All-Stars

Kevin Youkilis left last night's game in the 4th inning with an ankle injury. At the moment, it appears he'll be fine -- the word out of Fenway is that he'll be in the lineup tonight. Still, the sight of Youk leaving the game yesterday must have caused remotes across New England to be flung in exasperated disgust as the injury bug appeared to claim another key player on this 2010 Red Sox team. In recounting the injuries that have plagued the club this year, it occurs to me that we could field a fairly talented club solely from our DL. In order to find out exactly how good, I decided to draw up a lineup (nine offensive positions, two starters, a setup man, and a closer) and see how well it would stack up given their projected 2010 WAR (I'm using CHONE projections for batters because they're the easiest to find, but the estimates shouldn't be too far afield; for pitchers it's a bit tricky, but I'll resort to using fangraphs.com's fan projections -- imperfect, but close enough). This is obviously a thought experiment more than anything else, but it's interesting to see exactly how much talent the Sox have lost so far this season.

Epstein’s Draft Hits… and Misses

With the 2010 Amateur Draft just around the corner (Monday June 7 through Wednesday, June 9), I wanted to spend this week's column looking back at the previous best and worst picks of the Theo Epstein era, an era in which the strength of the minor league system has been both a top priority for the team and an area of almost unparalleled success.

With seven drafts under their belts, this front office has taken the team from a roster of two homegrown regulars (Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon) in 2003 to eight in 2010. Among them are a perennial Cy Young contender, a powerhouse corner infielder, a league champion base stealer, an elite closer, a man with a 100 mile an hour fastball, and an MVP. In addition, there is a new crop of talent maturing in the minors, with some players nearing the point where they will make a Major League contribution. So, not bad for a few years. After the jump, we'll take a look at the best and worst draft picks of the past seven years.

The intangible benefit of Pedroia

The Sox lineup, as always, is a meat grinder. They have four players in the top 20 in the American League in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA) and Pedroia ranks seventh at 4.27 (behind Youkilis who is fourth at 4.36) through 217 plate appearances (Victor Martinez is 11th at 4.12, J.D. Drew 13th at 4.11 while Marco Scutaro is 33rd at 3.92). Pedroia is also second in the league in total plate appearances at 217, behind only Denard Span of the Twins at 218, and leads the league in total pitches seen. Factoring in the entire majors, Youkilis ranks ninth and Pedroia 19th in P/PA.

Sitting in the No. 2 hole in the Sox lineup, Pedroia pesky plate appearances have a ripple down effect. Take for instance last Thursday when Boston beat Minnesota 6-2 on the strength of Jon Lester's nine-strikeout complete game. Pedroia was 0-3 with a walk and a run against the Twins and Francisco Liriano and was instrumental in knocking Minnesota's wily lefty out of the game after 4.2 innings with five earned runs on five hits and three walks. Pedroia was in the midst of a 4 for 39 slump at the time that spanned from May 12 to 23 before putting up three hits against the Rays on Monday.

The Case For Optimism

Monday night, we got a glimpse of what this team could look like with things going right. Clay Buchholz put together another solid outing, further cementing himself as this season’s most reliable starter, and the offense put on a show — especially during a long 6th inning that saw seven Sox runners cross the plate. The question is this: was what we saw last night something we can expect to see again, or was it simply a reminder of how frustrating this season has become?

I was a huge fan of this particular iteration of the club going into 2010 — probably the most excited I’ve been about a Sox team since 2007. Unsurprisingly, the abysmal start has dampened my optimism pretty significantly, but it hasn’t yet killed it. I still think that by the end of the season we’ll see a team that more closely resembles the one that decimated the Angels than the one that lay down in front of the Orioles. Here’s why.

Looking For Runs In All The Wrong Places

It's been a rough couple of weeks, folks. We've all heard it, we've all said it, we've all felt it. There's been enough negative energy in this town lately to give Vigo from Ghostbusters II a sugar high. However, if you sat there tonight watching grown millionaires crowd around Darnell McDonald like they were ten years old again and your cynicism, pessimism and negativity didn't melt away, you have no soul.

Tonight, it was the song of the backups -- the team was lifted up and carried by players no one has on a fantasy team, and eventually it was those players who gave the Red Sox their most inspiring win of the young season (with, admittedly, stunningly little competition). McDonald, Jeremy Hermida and Josh Reddick drove in six of the team's seven runs, and two of them weren't even on the roster this morning.