Five Questions with the Enemy: An Interview with Matt Imbrogno of Yankee Analysts

Today, I’m releasing the first installment of a new series I’ll be starting here at Fire Brand.  From time to…

Free Agent Spotlight: SP Zack Greinke

With San Fran taking a commanding 3-1 series lead over Texas, the rumor mill heats up as the remaining 28 teams focus on 2011… At first glance, Greinke seems like a tough nut to crack. He was stellar in 2008, posting a 3.47 ERA in his first season back from an anxiety disorder that cost him much of 2006 and 2007. He followed that up with a brilliant encore performance in ’09, finishing the year with a 2.16 ERA, 9.50 K/9 rate and 4.75 K/BB ratio. The sky was the limit… until his 2010 curtain call proved to be a major disappointment, as his ERA skyrocketed two full runs to 4.17, while his K/9 went south nearly as far to 7.40 K/9. For the Royals, Greinke’s disappointing 2010 put him on the fast track out the door from Kansas City. As his salary is set to nearly double next year to $13.5 million, the rumor mill has already begun churning out trade scenarios -- opinions that should only pick up steam at the conclusion of the World Series. But as the public speculates on Greinke’s possible landing place come April, perhaps the more important question is what version of the Royals’ ace will be the one that takes the mound next season: the Cy Young Award winner of ’09 or the solid innings-eater from 2010? While the answer follows the somewhat predictable sabermetric mantra of “somewhere in between,” the unfortunate fact is that Greinke leans rather heavily toward his 2010 line than ’09. An excellent talent, yes, but simply not the Cy Young-level starter of yesteryear. And the fact is, he never was of that caliber. There were two great upsets that produced Greinke’s otherworldly 2009 campaign. One was an artificially suppressed ERA. At 2.16, that’s no surprise. The other was his inflated strikeout rate, which, at 9.50, was substantially higher than the expected 7.93 K/9 rate that his plate discipline indicators suggested. Accounting for a drop in strikeouts, a rise in the HR/FB rate, and some regression in his ERA, Greinke would be expected to turn in a 3.88 ERA. A coveted asset, but a far cry from a Cy Young candidate. 2010 was much the same his underlying 2009 campaign, though a rise in his contact rate dropped his strikeouts even further, resulting in an expected ERA of 4.15. So where is the disconnect between the numbers and the perception? On the one hand, Greinke’s stellar 2009 inflated expectations to an unrealistic level. Anyone not named Koufax, Johnson, or Gibson would have no hope of sustaining that level of production -- and certainly not in the (post?) steroid era. On the other, Greinke was miscast as the classic strikeout power pitcher he portrayed in ’09. His contact rates have never been low enough to sustain a K-rate anywhere above the high 7.0’s and low 8.0’s per nine. He’s a control pitcher with good swing-and-miss stuff -- a Roy Halladay without the ground balls or a lesser Dan Haren. The bottom line for Greinke -- and the organization that trades for him -- is that the pitcher cannot be viewed as a potential ace. He’s a talented workhorse who, in his better seasons (’08 and ’09), will be a legitimate #1 but, in his worse years (‘10), will be a #3. He isn’t a Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum who can put a team on his shoulders and carry them into the post season. That’s not to say he isn’t worth the price of admission. Rather, he’s an extremely intriguing asset under control for two seasons at a very favorable price. At 5-6 WAR per season, he’ll far and away exceed the monetary cost of his contract. The real question is the level of prospects he will command -- and whether or not he’ll waive his no-trade clause, especially to a high-pressure market like Boston. As for fit, the Red Sox just aren’t in a position to add another expensive starting pitcher without first finding a new home for one of their expensive veterans. Though Greinke’s cost makes him a better fit than Cliff Lee, the presence of Daisuke and Lackey make the hurler’s acquisition exceedingly risky without a sound exit strategy -- and who would realistically take on a contract the likes of those two? While the Boston media may clamor for an upgrade in the rotation (and rightfully so), it just doesn’t seem terribly likely without some fancy maneuvering by Theo and company. Sure, the landscape could change in the upcoming months. But, like we recommended with Lee, don’t put any money on it. 

KC 5, BOS 1: Byrd Gets His Wings Clipped In First

A five run first inning by the Kansas City Royals did the Red Sox in last night, as the boys from Boston drop the second game of a four game series, 5-1.

Paul Byrd shook off the missteps of the first inning and went on to throw 6.2 innings, but the damage was already done, as Zack Greinke held off the Boston bats with another dominating performance.

Lester’s Case for the Cy Young

The Cy Young Award campaigns are getting real heated this time of year. The baseball media has zeroed in on four prime candidates: Zack Greinke, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernadez.

Each of these pitchers has a great resume, but Jon Lester has had quite the season. Where does he stack up against the competition?

ERA

1) Zack Greinke - 2.14 - 1st in AL
2) Felix Hernandez - 2.45 - 2nd in AL
3) C.C. Sabathia - 3.31 - 6th in AL
4) Jon Lester - 3.33 - 7th in AL
5) Justin Verlander - 3.44 - 9th in AL

9/22: Byrd tries to defeat Greinke

American League Central Preview.

Victor Martinez should get back on track upon returning from injury. Martinez may not be a great catcher, but he actually has value outside of the batters box, unlike Hafner. I expect good things out of Martinez this season, maybe not great things, but good. Shoppach will handle some of the duties behind the plate as well, which will help Victor stay rested. If Carlos Santana can make his way up to the big leagues this season, Victor could basically stay at first, and Shoppach could be moved for another piece, since they will need something, somewhere, eventually...

Fire Brand interviews Bill James

Bill James answers a few questions from Fire Brand of the American League. Find out why it's more successful to have a pitcher's park and who he thinks the active pitcher closest to perfection this days is...

BLOGPOLL: AL Awards 5/5

Each week, I will be participating in the 2008 MLB Blog Poll, put together by BaseballHappenings.com. Below are my current…

BLOGPOLL: AL Awards 4/21

Each week, I will be participating in the 2008 MLB Blog Poll, put together by BaseballHappenings.com. Below are my current…

Feelin' Good

The last two games have easily atoned for the stinker the Red Sox tossed up on Opening Day, and the…