Michael Bowden looks to the stands
Is there any article about Michael Bowden that doesn’t make reference to the Aug. 21 debacle against the Yankees. It’s bad enough that we have to deal with relievers small sample sizes, but if we’re going to boil a pitchers skill down to 2 IP then you’ll never see what a pitcher really is.
Obviously Bowden is not going to push Josh Beckett, Jon Lester or John Lackey from the rotation for sure. It’s a long shot he passes Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka or Clay Buchholz without a few injuries. This leaves him one shot to make the major league roster out of camp. Lately there has been talk he could see time again this year in the bullpen.
His stuff has not fully transitioned to the major league level as his strikeout rate is down to 6.43, but his walk rate was way up in 2009 at Triple-A and the majors. Unless he can return the walk rate to the elite levels he showed previously he will struggle as a starter with his K/BB around 2.00.
The good news is that a move to the pen should help him. Here is a study done by Sean Smith showing what happens to a pitcher moving to the relief roll. The walk rate stays static, strikeouts increase by 15 percent, hit rate fell by 4 percent and the homer rate falls by 13 percent.
Here is his CHONE projection for 2010 as a starter/reliever:
IP: 140/60
H: 151/62
HR: 19/7
BB: 52/22
K: 91/45
FIP: 4.76/4.32
That 60 IP is my suggestion at a possible playing time and not based on any specific projection for him. Based on that he is almost a half a run better as a reliever, but is that enough to get him into the bullpen? Looking at the CHONE projections he probably doesn’t have the stuff yet.
His 4.32 ERA puts him with Dustin Richardson behind the sure choices in Jonathon Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen. That list does not include a lefty specialist either and the team may look to get a LOOGY in the pen for tough left handed matchups.
This doesn’t look to be the way for Bowden to make the team at least in 2010. It’s a pretty sure bet that Bowden gets returned to Triple-A for the start of 2010. His start to the year will be very important though and need a solid step forward in his control to show he can be even better and perhaps return to a starting pitching prospect.
There is no reason to think he can’t make solid steps forward with his history of better control and most pitchers take two to three years to establish their best control years. My opinion is Bowden’s growth maybe slowed by more time in the pen. Unless they view him as a long term reliever than a return to Pawtucket is in order to continue his growth as a starter.
This makes him much more valuable as a reliever at a 4.30 ERA is only worth a maximum of 1 WAR, but a 4.70 pitcher is worth around 2.5 WAR. These are rough numbers, but show the large value of a starter over a relief pitcher.