Sox Add Lefty Andrew Miller to Stockpile

On Friday, the Red Sox acquired former top prospect LHP Andrew Miler from the Marlins for reliever Dustin Richardson. Mere hours later, the Marlins completed their organizational purge of the Miguel Cabrera trade, letting loose Cameron Maybin to the San Diego Padres, who was also acquired along with Miller. Miller is the epitome of a retread prospect, having been drafted sixth overall in the 2006 June Draft by the Detroit Tigers. For those who don’t quite remember, Miller was, for a time, considered the top left-hander in the draft and in contention for the first overall selection. Kansas City must have seen something in him, as he fell out of the top slot to sixth -- which Detroit considered to be a miracle. For whatever reason, Miller was never able to get his career going -- managing just a 5.84 ERA and 4.70 FIP 294.1 IP out of his considerable talent. Injuries can certainly take part of the blame, as Miller has yet to complete a full season without a disabled list stint. But it’s difficult to blame stagnation on injuries alone. While it likely played a role, it’s anyone’s guess as to exactly what happened. It’s unfortunate, but sometimes guys just lose it. Think Craig Hansen, former closer-of-the-future who fizzled out after losing his slider in the minors. Scouts and doctors alike have posited theories from the size of the baseball’s stitches to sleep disorders. The search is ongoing. The same seems to be happening to Miller. No one has a good answer to what -- if anything -- ails him. All that anyone can say is he has lost some 3-4 mph on his fastball and slider since draft day, can’t seem to find the strike zone, and needs to develop a changeup to hit the next level. A spike in fastball velocity and a new changeup would do wonders for Miller’s career prospects. A changeup would give him a formidable combo to throw against righties while a jump in velocity would help his arsenal altogether. But those are big ifs -- ifs that have any number of obstacles standing in the way. Whatever the case, Miller’s role with the 2011 Red Sox seems likely to be confined to low-leverage bullpen duty -- if he cracks the roster at all. Out of options, he’ll have to show something in Spring Training to even make the team as a LOOGY, as he’s found a way to struggle against lefties despite having a slider as his main breaking ball. Not what the Tigers were expecting when they drafted the lefty in 2006. Now, 4+ years later, Miller finds himself in his third organization and a significantly faded star attached to his name. That’s not to say Red Sox fans can’t get excited about his acquisition. Only, they should temper their expectations. At 25, he can still make something of himself, but anything more than low-leverage, cannon fodder arm in 2011 is gravy.

Free Agent Watch: OF Jayson Werth

As the hot stove heats up, we turn our sights to free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, who could add a spark to both the 2011 lineup and rumor mill should he sign with Boston… Of the top position players available on this year’s free agent market, Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth is arguably the second best hitter, combining a patient approach with the requisite power to man a corner outfield slot for a playoff-caliber team. Werth makes decent contact, though he is held back by a relative inability to make adequate contact with pitches in the zone. Of any one plate discipline indicator, zone contact percentage has the most affect on strikeout rates and Werth’s zone contact rate of 82.2 ranked 11^th worst of 149 qualified batters in 2010 -- right behind teammate and strikeout extraordinaire Ryan Howard (10^th; 82.0). This tendency will keep his strikeout rate right around 25 percent, which tends to be the line where strikeouts turn from annoying to detrimental. A rate in the high 20s is damaging to most all, while a rate in the 30s is universally unrecoverable except for elite-level power and line drive hitters. At this point, strikeout rates begin to overwhelm a hitter’s batting average, taking OBP and OPS down with it. Luckily, Werth lies just below these landmarks, even if he is unlikely to approach .300 again like he did in 2010. Still, a batting average of around .270-.280 is more than adequate, while his .370 OBP and high .800s OPS will bring home the bacon. While his low zone contact percentage is something to keep an eye on, it won’t prevent Werth from being a star for the Red Sox. Of more concern is his age in what will likely be a four or five year deal -- and therefore the threat of decline in the latter years of his contract. Turning 32 in May of next season, Werth is all but guaranteed to be signed through his age-35 season, with a very real chance of being 36 should he sign a five-year deal. While Werth’s decline should be slowed by his excellent athleticism, perhaps one area of concern is his height -- and therefore the length of his arms. As ESPN’s Keith Law pointed out in his most recent article, Werth is unique in that he likes pitches on the inside half despite being a lanky 6-foot-5. For a hitter that earns his paycheck on the inner part of the plate, Werth is a candidate for accelerated decline as his bat speed slows. Since his long arms necessitate excellent bat speed to catch up to inside fastballs, any loss of said bat speed could accelerate his decline. There’s a reason why 5-foot-9 Matt Stairs hit six home runs at age 42, while 6-foot-8 Richie Sexson hasn’t hit one since he was 33. Long arms take longer to get through the hitting zone and are therefore more vulnerable to good fastballs. In Werth’s defense, however, he has shown the ability to hit to the opposite field, which will aid him later in his career. Tall, all-pull hitters aren’t a good bet to age well, so it’s a good thing Werth can go to right field when he needs to. Admittedly, we’re being a bit nitpicky -- and it may be a bit unfair to spend so much time discussing the drawbacks of such a talented player. But we would be remiss not to point out the outfielder’s flaws, especially one whose prime years are coming to a close. He really does a lot well. He fits the bill for a middle of the order Red Sox’ bat -- a good hitter, with a patient approach and plenty of power. He’s a good athlete with speed who can ably man a corner outfield position. He’s selective at the plate, swinging at around 40 percent of pitches he sees, while being somewhat aggressive -- as evidenced by his 21.8 percent O-Swing rate. At the end of the day, he’s a tremendous hitter who would be a welcome asset to the Red Sox lineup. Ideally, the Sox would be able to add Werth via a four-year deal -- getting two or three excellent years while hoping for the best in the final season of his contract. Expect the Sox to go hard after Werth, but all the while leaving one foot out the door depending on the availability of Carl Crawford. As good as Werth is, he’s not at Crawford’s elite level, ceding about 1-2 WAR in any given year. Still, what Werth gives up in raw value he’ll get back in flexibility, as it’s more difficult to find a right fielder than a left fielder. If the Sox find a way to sign Crawford to left field this offseason, they may find there is no adequate right field option on free agency after 2011 when J.D. Drew departs. Left field is, historically, the easier position to fill due to easier defensive responsibilities. Any outfielder can be shifted to left, while right takes a cannon of an arm. Bottom line is, if the Sox sign Crawford, they get the better, younger player, while leaving open the chance of not having an adequate right fielder in 2012. If the Sox sign Werth, they go with a less-talented (but still very good) option, but one whom allows them to go after any outfielder next offseason. It’s a nice bit of flexibility that any Bill Belichick supporter would certainly enjoy. Still, perhaps the most interesting component of a Jayson Werth signing -- or Carl Crawford, for that matter – is how it would shape the Sox’ 2011 outfield situation, Jacoby Ellsbury’s status with the 2011 team, and thus, the organization’s entire 2010-11 off-season. The signing of either one would give the Sox four starting caliber outfielders (Werth/Crawford, Drew, Mike Cameron, and Jacoby Ellsbury) for three starting positions -- a veritable logjam confounded with huge contracts. While some would (and are currently) advocate for the trade of Ellsbury, the smart money would be to just keep Ellsbury as a fourth outfielder. It couldn’t make more sense. 1) While Ellsbury and Cameron would vulture one another’s playing time in center, both are terribly injury-prone and require one another as a mutual insurance policy. 2) Drew and Cameron both enter free agency following 2011, meaning that the Sox, if they traded Ellsbury, would be left with just Werth entering 2012. 3) Despite a lost 2010, Ellsbury remains extremely talented, albeit a work in progress. Short of receiving a huge prospect haul (which was made unlikely by his injury-plagued 2010), the club would be best served seeing if Jacoby could recapture his prospect status with a full 2011. A fourth reason: it would give writers, Boston fans, WEEI, the Sports Hub, and every media outlet an endless supply of ammunition for their daily talk. Further compounding the situation, what would the team do with an emergent Darnell McDonald, a cheap solution as fourth outfielder? But I digress. Though the club would have an expensive logjam in the outfield, and has more pressing needs at catcher and third base, don’t feel guilty in rooting hard for the acquisition of Jayson Werth. An exceptional player, he’ll be worth the $16-17 million per year that he should eventually receive. However, as Werth will be virtually inseperable from Carl Crawford this offseason, keep your fingers crossed for Crawford, but don’t be disappointed with Werth as an excellent Plan B.

Free Agent Spotlight: SP Zack Greinke

With San Fran taking a commanding 3-1 series lead over Texas, the rumor mill heats up as the remaining 28 teams focus on 2011… At first glance, Greinke seems like a tough nut to crack. He was stellar in 2008, posting a 3.47 ERA in his first season back from an anxiety disorder that cost him much of 2006 and 2007. He followed that up with a brilliant encore performance in ’09, finishing the year with a 2.16 ERA, 9.50 K/9 rate and 4.75 K/BB ratio. The sky was the limit… until his 2010 curtain call proved to be a major disappointment, as his ERA skyrocketed two full runs to 4.17, while his K/9 went south nearly as far to 7.40 K/9. For the Royals, Greinke’s disappointing 2010 put him on the fast track out the door from Kansas City. As his salary is set to nearly double next year to $13.5 million, the rumor mill has already begun churning out trade scenarios -- opinions that should only pick up steam at the conclusion of the World Series. But as the public speculates on Greinke’s possible landing place come April, perhaps the more important question is what version of the Royals’ ace will be the one that takes the mound next season: the Cy Young Award winner of ’09 or the solid innings-eater from 2010? While the answer follows the somewhat predictable sabermetric mantra of “somewhere in between,” the unfortunate fact is that Greinke leans rather heavily toward his 2010 line than ’09. An excellent talent, yes, but simply not the Cy Young-level starter of yesteryear. And the fact is, he never was of that caliber. There were two great upsets that produced Greinke’s otherworldly 2009 campaign. One was an artificially suppressed ERA. At 2.16, that’s no surprise. The other was his inflated strikeout rate, which, at 9.50, was substantially higher than the expected 7.93 K/9 rate that his plate discipline indicators suggested. Accounting for a drop in strikeouts, a rise in the HR/FB rate, and some regression in his ERA, Greinke would be expected to turn in a 3.88 ERA. A coveted asset, but a far cry from a Cy Young candidate. 2010 was much the same his underlying 2009 campaign, though a rise in his contact rate dropped his strikeouts even further, resulting in an expected ERA of 4.15. So where is the disconnect between the numbers and the perception? On the one hand, Greinke’s stellar 2009 inflated expectations to an unrealistic level. Anyone not named Koufax, Johnson, or Gibson would have no hope of sustaining that level of production -- and certainly not in the (post?) steroid era. On the other, Greinke was miscast as the classic strikeout power pitcher he portrayed in ’09. His contact rates have never been low enough to sustain a K-rate anywhere above the high 7.0’s and low 8.0’s per nine. He’s a control pitcher with good swing-and-miss stuff -- a Roy Halladay without the ground balls or a lesser Dan Haren. The bottom line for Greinke -- and the organization that trades for him -- is that the pitcher cannot be viewed as a potential ace. He’s a talented workhorse who, in his better seasons (’08 and ’09), will be a legitimate #1 but, in his worse years (‘10), will be a #3. He isn’t a Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum who can put a team on his shoulders and carry them into the post season. That’s not to say he isn’t worth the price of admission. Rather, he’s an extremely intriguing asset under control for two seasons at a very favorable price. At 5-6 WAR per season, he’ll far and away exceed the monetary cost of his contract. The real question is the level of prospects he will command -- and whether or not he’ll waive his no-trade clause, especially to a high-pressure market like Boston. As for fit, the Red Sox just aren’t in a position to add another expensive starting pitcher without first finding a new home for one of their expensive veterans. Though Greinke’s cost makes him a better fit than Cliff Lee, the presence of Daisuke and Lackey make the hurler’s acquisition exceedingly risky without a sound exit strategy -- and who would realistically take on a contract the likes of those two? While the Boston media may clamor for an upgrade in the rotation (and rightfully so), it just doesn’t seem terribly likely without some fancy maneuvering by Theo and company. Sure, the landscape could change in the upcoming months. But, like we recommended with Lee, don’t put any money on it. 

Free Agent Spotlight: SP Cliff Lee

With the rumor-mill beginning to heat up on the impending 2011 off-season, we turn our sights on free-agent-to-be Cliff Lee, who has been tied to the Red Sox in recent days… Since his 22-win breakout season in 2008, Lee has consistently ranked among the top pitchers in the MLB. And though he has achieved higher marks in the BBWAA stats in past years, 2010 may have been his best yet. Sporting an off-the-charts 0.76 BB/9 and 10:1 BB:K ratio, Lee has looked every bit the ace baseball fans have come to expect. Perhaps the greatest thing about Cliff Lee is his approach: pound the zone all game, every game. His stellar 56.6 zone percentage and 69.8 zone percentage are at the core of his success, leading to his miniscule walk rate. Though there is little in the Pitch FX annals to use as precedent, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that Lee can keep up this trend for as long as he wishes. Since command is his overarching skill, and he doesn’t rely on terrific velocity or a high K-rate, his skill set does seem vulnerable to the typical age-related decline of decreased velocity and lost strikeouts. His contact rate has never been particularly good -- below average, even -- so even if he were to lose some of his raw stuff, he wouldn’t necessarily lose his effectiveness. Taking his 2010 contact rates as a baseline (72.0 percent O-Contact, 88.4 Z-Contact, 84.1 Contact percentage), even if his overall contact rate shot through the roof to near 90 percent, he still wouldn’t lose more than about three-tenths of a run from his ERA. When considering that a 90-percent contact percentage would rank near the worst in the league, Lee seems to be about as fail-proof as any Major League pitcher around. So long as he can pound the zone, he should remain effective. That’s a nice, replicable recipe for success. There’s just one catch though. Given a closer look, Lee doesn’t seem to be the perennial Cy Young contender he’s portrayed these past three seasons. Rather, he looks more like an excellent #2 starter on a playoff-caliber team -- contributing quality starts on a regular clip, but with a 3.50-3.60 ERA instead of a 3.20-3.30. Not that there’s anything wrong with this type of pitcher. In fact, he’s quite the catch. It’s just a bit unlikely that he’ll continue registering HR/FB rates of around 6.0 while overshooting his K/9 rate by about a batter per nine frames. His ~6.0 HR/FB rate should rise a bit in the coming seasons, while his K/9 rate should fall back below 7.00 in due time. Given these adjustments, his 2010 line translates to approximately a 3.57 ERA. Good. Great, even. But not a Cy Young contender with the likes of Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Jered Weaver in the hunt. As for the Sox’ prospects of signing Lee, the club should not tread lightly. With Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey locked in, and Clay Buchholz improving by leaps and bounds, there doesn’t seem to be any room for another starter -- even one with Lee’s tremendous talent. Given the organization’s enormous financial commitment to those first four starters, the front office would have to either cut Buchholz from the rotation or trade one of the veterans. Given their price tags, the former seems far more likely. Unfortunately, the Sox could be doing more damage than good, as Buchholz seems primed to take that next leap toward the top of the rotation. His 2011 should prove that last year was no fluke. Nonetheless, the Red Sox should never hesitate when given the chance to improve the club with a talent like Lee’s. They just need to be sure they have a reliable exit strategy and/or trade partner ready should they do so. In the end, a major push for Cliff Lee doesn’t seem all that likely… or prudent. Don’t root for his acquisition unless the Sox can be assured of moving Daisuke or Lackey. Translation: don’t count on it.

9/30 Online Seats Game Thread: Closing September Down

Boston Red Sox (87-71) @ Chicago White Sox (85-73) Jon Lester (19-8, 2.96) @ John Danks (14-11, 3.74) 8:10 PM…

9/29 Online Seats Game Thread: Beckett’s Last Bet

Boston Red Sox (87-70) @ Chicago White Sox (84-73) Josh Beckett (6-5, 5.77) @ Freddy Garcia (11-6, 4.74) 8:10 PM…

Ryan Kalish and the 2011 Club

After Sunday night’s heartbreaker, the Sox have three games to shave 2.5 off of the Wildcard chase… Ryan Kalish… Kalishnikov… AK-47… whichever nickname you prefer, has done quite a job in Jacoby Ellsbury’s stead. The main piece of the Sox second-half patchwork outfield, Kalish seems to have worked himself into the Sox’ 2011 picture. With incumbent left and center fielders Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury having missed most of 2010 due to injury, the Sox’ outfield picture is as unclear as any position on the team -- third base, catcher, and the bullpen included. While trades, arbitration, and free agency will drastically affect our outlook before April arrives, one thing for sure is that Ryan Kalish’s role with the Major League club will be a hot topic come Spring Training. Perhaps the problem with Kalish is that he does fit into the 2011 roster. With Cameron and Ellsbury’s well-documented injury problems, the Sox will need to employ a reliable fourth outfielder who can fill in quite regularly -- much like a 6th man in basketball; an extension of the starting lineup. Kalish would fit this mold perfectly: he is cheap, has shown the ability to field all three outfield slots, and has enough chops to fill in at the bottom of the order without detracting from the team’s firepower. In addition, it could give the team additional time to evaluate his candidacy for a full-time starter’s role in 2012 and beyond. However, that may only be the easy way out -- solving a short-term need while keeping the fan base happy -- and could hurt the team in the long term. Impressive as he’s been, his bat isn’t ready for prime time. He still needs to work a little on pitch recognition and making consistent contact -- particularly with breaking balls, which he has had some difficulty with at times. Forcing him onto the big league roster could stunt his development, keeping him from reaching his sky-high potential. Therefore, both the Sox and Kalish would be best served by sending him to AAA and where he could take a half- or a full-season to develop at the plate. Ideally, Kalish could gain experience against near-big league caliber pitching at AAA, allowing the Sox to promote him mid-season with an eye for 2012. If he were able to show continued development in his power while reclaiming some of that stellar plate discipline from the low-minors, he could find himself as the Sox’ first home-grown corner outfielder since Trot Nixon in 1999. Kalish at the Dish in '10 While Kalish has impressed at times in his 2010 debut, his overall performance has been a mixed bag. In the field, he’s been spectacular -- a 46.3 UZR/150 fueling hopes that he may be the sought-after power-speed centerfield combo that MLB teams dream of. His bat, however, has been a different story, as a .731 OPS -- including a .301 OBP -- has left much to be desired. The main drawback has been the outfielder’s near 1:4 BB:K rate, which, while not a major cause for concern for a rookie, leaves questions as to how much more development time he needs. On the bright side, however, his plate discipline indicators have been quite good, and suggest walk and strikeout rates of just about 10 and 16 percent -- far better than his current numbers. As for the discrepancy between his actual numbers and those suggested by his plate discipline indicators, this is often seen by young batters who need to refine their approach at the plate, which comes with experience. But Kalish is a work in progress beyond his strike zone judgment. Before sliding in as a starting corner outfielder -- and, by default, a playoff-caliber middle of the order bat -- Kalish will have to add more power. Unless he develops the plate discipline of a JD Drew, Kalish will have to hit around 25 home runs annually in order to boost his batting average and slugging percentages into the range of a plus-corner outfielder. That said, Kalish is very close to reaching these criteria and could be ready for a fulltime job sometime in 2011 or 2012.

9/22 Online Seats Game Thread: Bird on a Wire

Baltimore Orioles (61-90) @ Boston Red Sox (83-68) Kevin Millwood (3-15, 5.14) @ John Lackey (12-11, 4.63) 7:10 PM EDT…

9/20 Online Seats Game Thread: A Different Kind of Fowl

Baltimore Orioles (59-90) @ Boston Red Sox (83-66)   Brian Matusz (8-12, 4.68) @ Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-5, 4.82) 7:10 PM…

A Reason to Stay in the Game, Prince Felix’ 2010

For those of you looking for a reason to watch the final two weeks of the 2010 season… With 13 games remaining, the Sox’ turbulent season is winding to a close. For the players, there is plenty of reason to be motivated. The young call-ups are receiving their first cups of big league coffee. The veterans are making that last push for next year’s employment. For the team, there is little to keep the drive alive. Trailing the Rays by 6.5 games in the Wild Card and the Yanks by 7.0 in the division, there is little reason to hope. By now, most have sacked up for the long winter, focusing on the Pats while they await the Sox’ April restart. But in those final 13 matches, the Sox have one last trick up their sleeve -- two three-game series against New York. A 1 in 100 Hail Mary pass. A long shot, but a shot none the less. Now, before we get any images of grandeur, let’s get something straight: this is, quite literally, a 1 in 100 shot.